Colts draft dream and nightmare outcomes.

[FatDT]

Originally Posted by Coltsalr

Am I the only one not completely sold on Burns?

Granted, it could just be my hatred of Florida State, but at 6'6 240, he's extremely lanky to the point that he reminds me a ton of Leonard Floyd (another guy who I was hoping would last to us but didn't).

And Floyd has failed to make a real, game-changing difference for the Bears.

I hear you. I was very skeptical about him. He is/was built like the kind of prospect I don't like. You mentioned Leonard Floyd. Floyd is actually one of the more successful of this type, which says more about the type itself than it does about Floyd. I'd include Dion Jordan (super bust), Barkevious Mingo (ok LB but never was a pass rusher), and Aaron Maybin (super bust). Guys that ran around blockers to get sacks but played at a weight that would never work in the NFL. I looked at Burns at first and figured he was the same type.

But then he weighed in at 249 at the Combine, and still tested very very well athletically. He ran a 4.51 40, his agility drills were good, his vertical and broad jumps were top 5-6ish if I remember right. And he interviewed well. He talked about having to gain over 20 lbs pre-Combine. He talked about how he needed to improve on his transfer of speed to power to round out his game. I expected him to either weigh in heavy and then tank or skip the workouts, OR to weigh in too light but do well in the drills. I didn't expect him to do well at a solid NFL weight.

So I watched some videos of him because I began to think maybe I wrote him off too soon. And what I see from him is that he actually plays with good technique and goes into a play with a plan. He has moves. He's not just running around blockers. He has skills that will transfer to the NFL. The other guys, even Floyd, didn't have that.

Now, those skills would not transfer at 228 lbs. He looked like a WR in college. But his Combine proved a lot. I remember Maybin weighed in around 250, but looked like a puffy sack of fat. He ran a really bad 40 and moved slow in other drills. He put on bad weight. Burns put on good weight. He got bigger and stronger but still moved athletically.

So I've kind of come around on him. I think he has skills those other guys didn't, and I think he has a better attitude than Maybin and Jordan. Floyd I think still might do something. Anyway, I get the idea Burns wants to be great and is working hard to get there. There's risk in drafting him early but I don't think it's any worse than any other prospect outside of Williams or Bosa. I would put him in the next category right under them, with Josh Allen/Ed Oliver/Montez Sweat.

[Chromeburn]

Didn’t Dion Jordan brag that an Andrew Luck led team has never beat him before?

I’m not sold on Burns either and I wonder if he is on their radar since Ballard said he wants a guy who can play the run also. Can Burns gain more weight or is he maxed out, also can he maintain that weight? Omenihu seems more likely with his all around ability and athletiscm.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Coltsalr

Am I the only one not completely sold on Burns?

Granted, it could just be my hatred of Florida State, but at 6'6 240, he's extremely lanky to the point that he reminds me a ton of Leonard Floyd (another guy who I was hoping would last to us but didn't).

And Floyd has failed to make a real, game-changing difference for the Bears.

He's not 6'6" 240, he's 6'5" 250, and he tested well at that height and weight, which makes him viable as an NFL DE. He also didn't get most of his sacks on unblocked runs at the QB, so I don't share your concern about him being the Leonard Floyd type that's too light to excel in the NFL and loses athleticism when they attempt to bulk up. My concern is I can't find a game tape of him in 2018 where he got more than a handful of pressures, which doesn't bode well for a transition to the NFL. He never looked unblockable or even close to it, where a Josh Allen, for example, had a few games or points in games where no one could block him and teams were forced to double him. I will say Burns drew a lot of doubles, but that seemed to be a function of the Florida State defense being awful, and his explosion really caught the eye in tape, but his tape didn't really scream first rounder to me. That could be a function of how bad the defense around him was, but he didn't really make a consistent impact in the games I watched. I also hated how often Florida State dropped him into coverage. He's clearly a pass rusher, use him that way.

Originally Posted by FatDT

I hear you. I was very skeptical about him. He is/was built like the kind of prospect I don't like. You mentioned Leonard Floyd. Floyd is actually one of the more successful of this type, which says more about the type itself than it does about Floyd. I'd include Dion Jordan (super bust), Barkevious Mingo (ok LB but never was a pass rusher), and Aaron Maybin (super bust). Guys that ran around blockers to get sacks but played at a weight that would never work in the NFL. I looked at Burns at first and figured he was the same type.

But then he weighed in at 249 at the Combine, and still tested very very well athletically. He ran a 4.51 40, his agility drills were good, his vertical and broad jumps were top 5-6ish if I remember right. And he interviewed well. He talked about having to gain over 20 lbs pre-Combine. He talked about how he needed to improve on his transfer of speed to power to round out his game. I expected him to either weigh in heavy and then tank or skip the workouts, OR to weigh in too light but do well in the drills. I didn't expect him to do well at a solid NFL weight.

So I watched some videos of him because I began to think maybe I wrote him off too soon. And what I see from him is that he actually plays with good technique and goes into a play with a plan. He has moves. He's not just running around blockers. He has skills that will transfer to the NFL. The other guys, even Floyd, didn't have that.

Now, those skills would not transfer at 228 lbs. He looked like a WR in college. But his Combine proved a lot. I remember Maybin weighed in around 250, but looked like a puffy sack of fat. He ran a really bad 40 and moved slow in other drills. He put on bad weight. Burns put on good weight. He got bigger and stronger but still moved athletically.

So I've kind of come around on him. I think he has skills those other guys didn't, and I think he has a better attitude than Maybin and Jordan. Floyd I think still might do something. Anyway, I get the idea Burns wants to be great and is working hard to get there. There's risk in drafting him early but I don't think it's any worse than any other prospect outside of Williams or Bosa. I would put him in the next category right under them, with Josh Allen/Ed Oliver/Montez Sweat.

What games did you watch that gave you that impression? The tape I watched showed a guy with traits who needs to develop more. Honestly, I watched he and D'Andre Walker back to back and they graded out similarly to me. The biggest difference I saw between those two players is Walker could be had at 59 or 89, where Burns may be gone by 26.

[FatDT]

What games did you watch that gave you that impression? The tape I watched showed a guy with traits who needs to develop more. Honestly, I watched he and D'Andre Walker back to back and they graded out similarly to me. The biggest difference I saw between those two players is Walker could be had at 59 or 89, where Burns may be gone by 26.

Miami and VA Tech. Not full games. Admittedly I knew those and the Wake Forrest game were his best.

He's not a top 5 or 10 pick. He is physically mid-development. If he'd had a great Combine at 238 lbs. I would not be interested. But he showed high-end athleticism with 20 brand new lbs. on his body. He has a nice spin move. He showed he uses his hands well. If he had the same skill set at 265 lbs. I think we'd be talking about a top 5 selection, and we'd have zero shot at him. As it is, I think he might have a special skill set and can reach that body weight near the start of the season.

There's a very good chance we still don't get a shot at him.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by FatDT

Miami and VA Tech. Not full games. Admittedly I knew those and the Wake Forrest game were his best.

He's not a top 5 or 10 pick. He is physically mid-development. If he'd had a great Combine at 238 lbs. I would not be interested. But he showed high-end athleticism with 20 brand new lbs. on his body. He has a nice spin move. He showed he uses his hands well. If he had the same skill set at 265 lbs. I think we'd be talking about a top 5 selection, and we'd have zero shot at him. As it is, I think he might have a special skill set and can reach that body weight near the start of the season.

There's a very good chance we still don't get a shot at him.

Burns has 3 legit rush moves (speed, spin, swim). Dam, if he were more consistent, he’d be a top 5 pick with his athleticism and skill set.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Burns has 3 legit rush moves (speed, spin, swim). Dam, if he were more consistent, he’d be a top 5 pick with his athleticism and skill set.

I like the athleticism, and, as you've mentioned before, the variety of at least rudimentary pass rush moves he already has to work with. I just don't see the dominance on film that makes me think top 5/top 15 pick. As an example, the thing that sold me on Robert Quinn way back in 2011 was his film against Anthony Castanzo. He made Castanzo, who was rated as the top OT in an admittedly weak OT class, look silly the whole game. Snap after snap Quinn was winning that battle and eventually forcing doubles and chips to his side. Comparatively, I watched Burns against Jonah Williams, and while Williams lost a snap here and there and occasionally got a chip or a double to help, for the most part Williams just stonewalled Burns. I'm not judging by that game alone, of course, and for all we know, Jonah Williams could be the next Joe Thomas, but it shows that at least right now, Burns would struggle against an NFL caliber starting LT, which isn't what I expect from a top 15 edge rusher. He definitely has traits that can be molded and potentially turned into a great player, but he's not there yet, and he should at least be a lot closer for top 15 consideration.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I like the athleticism, and, as you've mentioned before, the variety of at least rudimentary pass rush moves he already has to work with. I just don't see the dominance on film that makes me think top 5/top 15 pick. As an example, the thing that sold me on Robert Quinn way back in 2011 was his film against Anthony Castanzo. He made Castanzo, who was rated as the top OT in an admittedly weak OT class, look silly the whole game. Snap after snap Quinn was winning that battle and eventually forcing doubles and chips to his side. Comparatively, I watched Burns against Jonah Williams, and while Williams lost a snap here and there and occasionally got a chip or a double to help, for the most part Williams just stonewalled Burns. I'm not judging by that game alone, of course, and for all we know, Jonah Williams could be the next Joe Thomas, but it shows that at least right now, Burns would struggle against an NFL caliber starting LT, which isn't what I expect from a top 15 edge rusher. He definitely has traits that can be molded and potentially turned into a great player, but he's not there yet, and he should at least be a lot closer for top 15 consideration.

Your points about the matchup with Jonah Williams seem fair, but Castonzo was the 3rd tackle in that draft behind Tyron Smith and Nate Solder. Quinn was taken 8 spots in front of Castonzo. It isn’t apples to apples.

Edit: I take back my first statement. Alabama and Florida St didn’t play in 2018. I’m not reading into Burns performance against Williams in 2017 after the growth Burns showed in 2018. Not to be a dick, but there’s so much wrong or misleading in your last post that I feel it should be redacted.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Your points about the matchup with Jonah Williams seem fair, but Castonzo was the 3rd tackle in that draft behind Tyron Smith and Nate Solder. Quinn was taken 8 spots in front of Castonzo. It isn’t apples to apples.

Edit: I take back my first statement. Alabama and Florida St didn’t play in 2018. I’m not reading into Burns performance against Williams in 2017 after the growth Burns showed in 2018. Not to be a dick, but there’s so much wrong or misleading in your last post that I feel it should be redacted.

Was the Alabama matchup 2017? I was watching it late at night and honestly don't follow college football much, so I didn't know based on watching the college season. It's certainly fair to say that tape from 2017 on a player like Burns isn't good evaluation material. Also, I'd honestly forgotten Tyron Smith was in that class, but Castanzo was considered the top OT prior to early entrants and was still widely considered the 2nd best OT. Nate Solder was drafted before him, but a lot of people thought he would have to move to guard because his pass pro was so bad.