Some stats heading into Training Camp - ColtFreaks.com

sherck · #1 07-21-2017, 07:30 AM

All stats from Football Outsiders which I am becoming more and more a fan of. They don't try to grade to any "empirical" scale. They measure all team performances versus the other NFL teams so it is all relative to what is actually happening on the field.

For 2016:

-- Stuffed Runs: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

The Colts were ranked #1 in the NFL in allowing the least number of "stuffed" runs with only 13% of their rushing attempts being considered a "stuff." NFL average was 19% or almost 1 in 5 rushing attempts.

-- Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

The Colts were ranked #15 in the NFL being successful on 63% of their power runs. The NFL average was also 63%. The #1 team was CHI at 75% success rate on their power runs.

-- Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
Losses: 120% value
0-4 Yards: 100% value
5-10 Yards: 50% value
11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry.

The Colts tied at #3 in the NFL with TEN in ALY with 4.33 ypc. The NFL averaged was 4.16 ypc.

All of this to say that our offensive line had a pretty successful year in 2016 in making sure that our RBs did not get stuffed, were successful in short yardage situations (at least NFL average) and had a pretty high grade assigned to them on getting the job done at the LoS.

However, on "2nd level runs" and "open field runs", the Colts ranked #28 and #32 respectively pointing to the fact that our RBs (Gore and Turbin) were not able to make much happen if they did get past the defensive front 7.

Honestly, not bad for an offensive line that featured 2 rookies and was missing their best OG for half the season.

How about pass blocking? Football outsiders only measures "sacks" for their passing analysis and for the season, the Colts gave up 44 sacks for a ranking of #28 in the NFL giving up a sack on 7.6% of passing attempts. NFL average was 6.1%.

HOWEVER, if you only chart the second half of the season (8 games), the Colts gave up 13 sacks on 283 pass attempts for a sack rate of 4.6% which if season long would have ranked 6th in the NFL.

TLDR - The Colts offensive line was successful, when compared to the NFL as a whole, in opening holes for their RBs, preventing stuffed runs and providing pass protection during the 2nd half of the season as rookies matured. I can see why the Colts did nothing "major" on the O-line for 2017.

Cheers,

Hoopsdoc · #2 07-21-2017, 11:19 AM

#1 in fewest stuffed runs is startling to me, considering how bad the run blocking was.

FatDT · #3 07-21-2017, 01:36 PM

Thank you for the research and for the TLDR.

Dam8610 · #4 07-21-2017, 02:41 PM

Marlon Mack should help this.

YDFL Commish · #5 07-21-2017, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoopsdoc

#1 in fewest stuffed runs is startling to me, considering how bad the run blocking was.

Part of that is the smarts and toughness of Frank Gore. He gets what he can and doesn't dance around before hitting the hole.

rcubed · #6 07-21-2017, 04:17 PM

^ and hits the correct hole

Mr. Session · #7 07-21-2017, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Part of that is the smarts and toughness of Frank Gore. He gets what he can and doesn't dance around before hitting the hole.

He's the best I've seen at doing that for Indianapolis in a number of years. I can't remember another RB getting up into the hole as fast as Gore has for the Colts, in some time.

That said, I still wonder if Gore's lack of explosiveness could be improved upon at this point. I'm hopeful we can hit some homeruns in the running game this year with Mack (Pining really) because I suspect Gore is purely a "move the chains" RB at this point in his career.

A running game that has some explosive ability matched with Luck is really all this offense needs.

Mr. Session · #8 07-21-2017, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Part of that is the smarts and toughness of Frank Gore. He gets what he can and doesn't dance around before hitting the hole.

He's the best I've seen at doing that for Indianapolis in a number of years. I can't remember another RB getting up into the hole as fast as Gore has for the Colts, in some time.

That said, I still wonder if Gore's lack of explosiveness could be improved upon at this point. I'm hopeful we can hit some homeruns in the running game this year with Mack (Pining really) because I suspect Gore is purely a "move the chains" RB at this point in his career.

A running game that has some explosive ability matched with Luck would be huge for this offense IMO.

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