Colts Cap Update – 13 March 2017

[sherck]

Originally Posted by Puck

I'm starting to get interested in this in some weird Sherck like way..... Not that I will be a guru like you, but it is interesting and I am trying to understand it, so sorry for all the questions (not really)

The Top 51 + pool includes the draft picks correct?

Correct. Their number of "Top 51 + pool" is an estimate of where the Colts are right now with their top 51 off-season contacts and an estimated amount for the Colts draft class. They will be pretty close due to how the rookie pay scale is established but it will not be dead on.

Originally Posted by Puck

So from there you take out 52 & 53 at about 1 million and churn at 3+ million

Correct. Spots 52 and 53 will most likely cost us $540k each although it is possible that younger, cheaper talent will fight their way onto the roster and each only cost us $485k each. But I use the $540k number for a total of $1.080m.

Grigson indicated early on that you needed to keep around $3m as a minimum for sign players to the active roster to cover those who go to IR. If we are signing $540k a year guys, that amount is pro-rated for how many games they stay on the active roster but it ends up equaling six "season long" replacement bodies which is typically enough to cover a season of injury.

Originally Posted by Puck

If that (all) is for the 60 man roster wouldn't that take into account for the practice squad?

Spotrac's "All" number is not for the 50 off season active + practice squad. It is for "all" contracts the Colts have signed....up to a total of 90. It is a useless number.

The minimum pay for the 10-man practice squad in 2016 was $6,300 a week x 17 weeks x 10 players = $1.071m in cap hit for the yearlong practice squad. I keep using a figure of $1.200m because it will jump a bit this year but that final number will not be available until around June.

Originally Posted by Puck

That would take us down to about 19 million but they dont have Aiken, Williams, Woods

I'm trying to get down to your 13 million number.....

So, let's start from the top using Spotrac numbers, shall we?

$167.000m = 2017 NFL Cap Space
$006.614m = 2016 Colts rollover cap
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$173.614m = 2017 Adjusted Colts Cap Space. I agree with this amount.

$137.865m = Top 51 contract obligations. Their amount, see below.
$006.376m = Dead Money ($5m is Allen + Robinson so we had very little before those 2 Ballard driven moves)
$006.322m = 2017 Draft Pool
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$150.563m = Current Cap Obligations

$023.048m = Free Cap Space. Same number as Spotrac

However, as you pointed out, they don't have Woods in their numbers which I did to get down to $13.6m.

Woods signed a 2-year, $5m deal which I have been calculating as being a $2.5m cap hit for each year.

$20.548m Free Cap Space

Practice Squad, Churn space and Spots #52 and #53 on the active roster = $5.280m

$15.268m Free Cap Space which is $1.668m HIGHER than I was calculating.

This is where Spotrac and I differ because I don’t agree with how Spotrac is calculating their “Likely To Be Earned” bonuses and a difference on what I think two players are being accounted for in their cap hit.

I have Sean Spence at a $3.000m cap hit as reported but Spotrac has him at $2.468m. $532k difference.
I have Darius Buter at a $3.500m cap hit as reported but Spotrac has him at $2.875m. $625k difference.
Sheard is still $32k off from what I think he should be.
Simon is still $167k off from what I think he should be.
Turbin is still $119k off from what I think he should be.
By my understanding, Alex Bazzie should be counting as $540k but Spotrac has him at $465k.
By my understanding, Fahn Cooper should be counting as $540k but Spotrac has him at $465k.

Added together, all those differences total $1.625m which is within tolerance of the 1.668m differential that I have with Spotrac. Since I don't get to see the actual signed contracts, this is close enough for government work.

That is how I got down to the $13.6m number from previously.

Clear as mud?

Cheers,