Quick thoughts on Colts-Raiders

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by Chaka

We have literally moved from worst to first on sack rate. It is pretty shocking.

Not really. The offense was terrible last year. The play calling and Brissett was terrible. Had no idea what to do with the ball half the time

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

Not really. The offense was terrible last year. The play calling and Brissett was terrible. Had no idea what to do with the ball half the time

I agree with your assessment. Brissett was very indecissive. From the story on his workwith the scout team, he’s been very good

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

Not really. The offense was terrible last year. The play calling and Brissett was terrible. Had no idea what to do with the ball half the time

While the difference in QB is worthwhile to note, it only explains some of the difference. While we'll never know how many sacks Luck would have taken had he been our QB last year, we do know than in 2016 (when he played about half the season before injury) our sack rate was 7.53% - still well above the league average (6.11%) that season. In 2015, the last year when he served as the QB for an entire season, the sack rate was 5.98%, slightly lower than the league average that season (6.48%).

Obviously, there are variables between any season that won't allow a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but the overall picture that gets painted is that we are markedly better at protecting the QB this season.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chaka

While the difference in QB is worthwhile to note, it only explains some of the difference. While we'll never know how many sacks Luck would have taken had he been our QB last year, we do know than in 2016 (when he played about half the season before injury) our sack rate was 7.53% - still well above the league average (6.11%) that season. In 2015, the last year when he served as the QB for an entire season, the sack rate was 5.98%, slightly lower than the league average that season (6.48%).

Obviously, there are variables between any season that won't allow a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but the overall picture that gets painted is that we are markedly better at protecting the QB this season.

Even those stats don’t take into account the change in play calling. The difference is huge. The Colts are 30th in yards per completion. For most of Lucks career they’ve been in the top 10. Shorter quicker passes and having a good check down option help the OLine tremendously. The previous coaching staff didn’t do the OLine any favors with their scheme or play calling.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Even those stats don’t take into account the change in play calling. The difference is huge. The Colts are 30th in yards per completion. For most of Lucks career they’ve been in the top 10. Shorter quicker passes and having a good check down option help the OLine tremendously. The previous coaching staff didn’t do the OLine any favors with their scheme or play calling.

That's a fair point as well. Here's what I'm seeing as to yards per completion:

2018 - 9.38 yards per completion (league average 10.91) - Rank 30th
2017 - 10.15 yards per completion (league average 10.58) - Rank 23rd
2016 - 11.36 yards per completion (league average 10.73) - Rank 8th
2015 - 10.43 yards per completion (league average 10.83) - Rank 20th

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chaka

That's a fair point as well. Here's what I'm seeing as to yards per completion:

2018 - 9.38 yards per completion (league average 10.91) - Rank 30th
2017 - 10.15 yards per completion (league average 10.58) - Rank 23rd
2016 - 11.36 yards per completion (league average 10.73) - Rank 8th
2015 - 10.43 yards per completion (league average 10.83) - Rank 20th

Let’s make sure we are showing the whole picture:

2014 - 11.8 ypc - rank 3rd
2013 - 11.2 ypc - rank 10th
2012 - 12.0 ypc - rank 3rd

The only two years out of the top 10 were the year Luck missed and the year he missed over half the season. The difference with a healthy and playing Luck is stark.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Let’s make sure we are showing the whole picture:

2014 - 11.8 ypc - rank 3rd
2013 - 11.2 ypc - rank 10th
2012 - 12.0 ypc - rank 3rd

The only two years out of the top 10 were the year Luck missed and the year he missed over half the season. The difference with a healthy and playing Luck is stark.

Just so you know, I wasn't trying to prove you wrong - I said I thought you made a fair point. I only listed the last four years because that's all I had on my computer screen at the time, and those were the only years I had been discussing in my prior posts on the subject (though you did make me realize I had mixed up the timing of Luck's injury in 2015/2016)

That said, I looked at 2012-2014 after seeing your post, and found that the sack rates in those years (where we had a high YPC) were actually lower than the later years. Here's the sack rates along with the YPC average:

2014 - Sack rate 4.39% (4th best) / YPC 11.94 (3rd best)
2013 - Sack rate 5.50% (5th best) / YPC 10.64 (10th best)
2012 - Sack rate 6.53% (15th best) / YPC 12.18 (3rd best)

So I'm not seeing a great correlation, at least in these years, between higher YPC / higher sack rate.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Just so you know, I wasn't trying to prove you wrong - I said I thought you made a fair point. I only listed the last four years because that's all I had on my computer screen at the time, and those were the only years I had been discussing in my prior posts on the subject (though you did make me realize I had mixed up the timing of Luck's injury in 2015/2016)

That said, I looked at 2012-2014 after seeing your post, and found that the sack rates in those years (where we had a high YPC) were actually lower than the later years. Here's the sack rates along with the YPC average:

2014 - Sack rate 4.39% (4th best) / YPC 11.94 (3rd best)
2013 - Sack rate 5.50% (5th best) / YPC 10.64 (10th best)
2012 - Sack rate 6.53% (15th best) / YPC 12.18 (3rd best)

So I'm not seeing a great correlation, at least in these years, between higher YPC / higher sack rate.

That’s interesting and honestly surprising to me. Seems like the line has sucked pass blocking throughout Luck’s career. Is my memory wrong in Luck taking a lot of punishment even early in his career? I’ll have to look up QB hit stats when I get a chance. I also don’t remember the line being particularly talented.

Interesting that 2015 was the start of the Chud offense. You may be right that the YPC stats don’t show a great correlation, but maybe there is one for the coaching? I’ll have to look into it more. The offense appears much better designed to me. I’m not at all trying to knock the talent improvement on the line - it’s obvious. I’m just trying to highlight the improvements in the offensive scheme and philosophy. To me one of the best things a coach can do is highlight his teams strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I rarely felt like I saw that with the previous coaching staff. It never felt like they took their roster into account when designing schemes or calling plays. They coached for the team they wish they had.

It will be interesting to me to monitor the YPC stat as the season progresses. My guess is it increases as the line progresses and the run game allows more play action.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Chaka

That's a fair point as well. Here's what I'm seeing as to yards per completion:

2018 - 9.38 yards per completion (league average 10.91) - Rank 30th
2017 - 10.15 yards per completion (league average 10.58) - Rank 23rd
2016 - 11.36 yards per completion (league average 10.73) - Rank 8th
2015 - 10.43 yards per completion (league average 10.83) - Rank 20th

Compare the running game numbers. When you are behind, you throw more. When you can run at will, you take less chances in the air.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by JAFF

Compare the running game numbers. When you are behind, you throw more. When you can run at will, you take less chances in the air.

Maybe it's because it's late, but I'm not 100% sure what you're asking. Rm1369 was making the point that the current low sack rate may be a product, at least in part, of the fact that Luck has been making quicker, shorter throws (as evidenced by his career low YPC number this year) and thus the defensive players haven't had as much time to get to him for a sack.

You bring up the running numbers, but I guess I don't know what you want to compare - are you saying that there should be a correlation between a high sack rate and a poor rushing Yards Per Attempt (YPA) rate? If so, then please back it up with numbers so we can see if it makes sense.