Is Daniel Jones's 2025 success sustainable? A deep dive into the numbers.

[Dam8610]

In Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season, the Colts committed to Daniel Jones being their QB of the (at least immediate) future. They did this by trading their first round picks in 2026 and 2027, the capital that would be most likely to get them a different franchise QB, along with Adonai Mitchell, for Sauce Gardner. Things could not have gone worse for the Colts after that trade, as at the time of the trade, they were the #1 seed in the AFC, and they finished 1-7 and missed the playoffs. This included Daniel Jones having two significant injuries, a fractured fibula in Week 9 which he played through until he tore his Achilles tendon in Week 14. Prior to the first injury in Week 9, Jones looked like a Top 5 QB in the NFL. Even after the first injury, he looked like a league average or better starting QB. So, the $88 million question is: Was 2025 an anomaly, or can Daniel Jones be the player we saw at the beginning of 2025 moving forward?

2025 By the Numbers: How Daniel Jones Was a Different QB
In looking at these numbers, I'm going to use per game averages rather than totals, because counting stats are skewed by number of games played. In 2025, Daniel Jones had career bests in the following categories:

Passing Yards per Game, Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, Success Rate, Bad Throw Percentage, Sack Percentage, Pressure Percentage

He also barely missed having a career high in TD percentage due to an anamolus rookie year 5.2% performance, vs 4.9% in 2025, which was much higher than any year other than his rookie year with the Giants. In short, the 2025 Colts Daniel Jones was a different QB than the version that was with the Giants for several years. But why? Well, it seems the Colts did their homework and tailored their offense to maximize Jones's success.

Prior to 2025, Jones's most successful season was 2022. What made him successful in 2022? He limited mistakes, and he had far and away (to that point in his career) the most RPO and playaction plays of his career. Shane Steichen's offense already wants to do these things, so it appears they leaned in. In 2022, Jones ran about 3 RPO plays and 9 playaction plays per game. In 2025, Jones ran about 5 RPO plays and 8 playaction plays per game. On the 155 pass attempts Jones had on those plays, he had 1,363 yards, or 8.8 yards per attempt. That's elite. It also goes a long way to explaining his career high in yards per attempt of 8.1, which is more than a full yard higher than his previous career high of 6.9, and gives reason to think that that number is sustainable rather than likely to regress to the mean. RPOs and playactions are staples of Steichen's offense, he's going to want to continue to call those plays, and apparently Daniel Jones can execute those plays at an elite level. I think this also contributed to his career high success rate. You might be asking: what is success rate, and why does it matter? Success Rate is the percentage of plays that have a "successful" result, which is defined as gaining at least 40% of yards needed on first down, at least 60% of yards needed on second down, and 100% of yards needed on third or fourth down. Prior to 2025, Jones averaged about a 43% success rate, with a career high of 45.7% in 2022. In 2025, Jones had a 52.0% success rate. For context on this, 2025 MVP Matthew Stafford had a 54.4% success rate, MVP runner up Drake Maye had a 53.7% success rate, and Super Bowl Champion Sam Darnold had a 50.0% success rate. This is the reason everyone always talked about the Colts offense being on schedule and efficient. By the numbers with Jones under center, it was, and given the fact that the plays that are staples of Steichen's offense are the plays on which Daniel Jones becomes an elite QB, there's no reason to think that won't continue into 2026.

The Caveat
As stated previously, I looked at per game averages for this analysis. Why? Because Jones got hurt and missed 4.5 games. The problem with that is it's a theme for his career. Daniel Jones has never in his career started the full season of games for his team. The closest he got was 16 of 17 in 2022. As we all know, the best ability is availability, and Jones still needs to prove he can be available for all 17 games. If he is, I think we can expect the Colts offense to operate at the juggernaut level we saw in the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season. If he's not, which is more likely given his history, the team may struggle in his absence.

Conclusion
I fully believe that a healthy Daniel Jones can sustain the success he had in 2025, maybe even build on it. He's a great fit for Steichen's offense, and he plays at an elite level on the plays Steichen wants to call. The only issue I can identify as likely to cause a problem is Jones's health, which has historically not allowed him to be on the field for a full season. If he is able to break that trend, the sky is the limit for both he and the Colts offense.

[sherck]

Good numbers. Good support to your argument. I agree that he seems to play in SS's offense better than he did anywhere else.....

.....when he was available.

You hit the nail on the head. While he may drive an efficient and effective offense when on the field, he cannot be counted on to be on the field enough to make the difference.

Games played each season since 2018:

13 / 14 / 11 / 16 / 6 / 10 / 13

The closest he got to a full slate was 16 of 17 games 2022 and 14 of 16 games in 2020.

While those seasons are fine with availability (Not everyone can be Peyton Manning), the other seasons are not

3 missed games
2 missed games
5 missed games
1 missed game
11 missed games
7 missed games
4 missed games

You cannot gamble your franchise on a QB who misses that many games at the most critical position on the team.

To use the QBs you mentioned in your "success" rate discussion:

33 missed games since 2019 = Daniel Jones
19 missed games since 2019 = Matthew Stafford
04 missed games since 2019 = Drake Maye (only 2 seasons)
27 missed games since 2019 = Sam Darnold

Easy to say that DJ has "only" missed six more games than Darnold but DJ misses some every year. Darnold had three seasons in that time frame that he missed zero games. DJ has never done that.

So, sure, like Bob Sanders, when DJ is on the field, I hope he is a difference maker. But history has shown that he will not be on the field enough for us to win deep into the playoffs and thus he is the wrong QB for the Colts.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by sherck

Good numbers. Good support to your argument. I agree that he seems to play in SS's offense better than he did anywhere else.....

.....when he was available.

You hit the nail on the head. While he may drive an efficient and effective offense when on the field, he cannot be counted on to be on the field enough to make the difference.

Games played each season since 2018:

13 / 14 / 11 / 16 / 6 / 10 / 13

The closest he got to a full slate was 16 of 17 games 2022 and 14 of 16 games in 2020.

While those seasons are fine with availability (Not everyone can be Peyton Manning), the other seasons are not

3 missed games
2 missed games
5 missed games
1 missed game
11 missed games
7 missed games
4 missed games

You cannot gamble your franchise on a QB who misses that many games at the most critical position on the team.

To use the QBs you mentioned in your "success" rate discussion:

33 missed games since 2019 = Daniel Jones
19 missed games since 2019 = Matthew Stafford
04 missed games since 2019 = Drake Maye (only 2 seasons)
27 missed games since 2019 = Sam Darnold

Easy to say that DJ has "only" missed six more games than Darnold but DJ misses some every year. Darnold had three seasons in that time frame that he missed zero games. DJ has never done that.

So, sure, like Bob Sanders, when DJ is on the field, I hope he is a difference maker. But history has shown that he will not be on the field enough for us to win deep into the playoffs and thus he is the wrong QB for the Colts.

Unfortunately, when you're in a situation like the Colts are in where they're not one of the 5-10 teams that has a true franchise QB, you have to gamble on something like this and hope it works out. I also wish that I had more than zero confidence in the strength and conditioning team to come up with a plan to keep him available throughout the season, but the strength and conditioning team in this organization seems to have a negative effect if any on the number of player games missed.

[Oldcolt]

I sure hope you are right. I see your logic and it certainly is one way to see things. My concern is that DJ looked like an all time great the first half of the season. He has never had a spell like that before that i can find. Going form a journeyman to an alltime great can happen i guess, but it just never has yet. He also did it to teams that turned out to suck. The way the dude plays he will always be a fumble waiting to happen. I am also concerned that he will not have enough time with Pierce to come out of the gate swinging. None of this means Dan isn't correct. For me, the football gods have screwed with us so bad recently that I have a hard time getting on the bandwagon. I have a bad attitude. hope i am wrong

[Oldcolt]

Twenty minutes after I post this Pierce is placed on PUP. It is early and doesn't mea anything probably but with the Colts history with injuries it makes me uneasy

[apballin]

I’m concerned most about his ability to move around because he’s not really a sit in the pocket and beat you type of QB, not to mention it’s his plant leg so yes I’m very concerned

[omahacolt]

Jones gets hurt. AR takes over and wins the super bowl. just how Ballard had it planned.

[apballin]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

Jones gets hurt. AR takes over and wins the super bowl. just how Ballard had it planned.

Somehow, someway, Riley Leonard will be the hero of this season

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by apballin

Somehow, someway, Riley Leonard will be the hero of this season

I hope not. dude has an AI face.