The Daniel Jones effect is difficult to quantify

[Pez]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

They are not going to trade AR. They have to much draft capital and time capital invested in him to dump him for what, a 6th round pick. I am hopeful that this first game was an indication of who Jones really is and that I was completely wrong about him. One game against a total shit team doesn't convince me however and nobody seems to be convinced he can lead us to the promised land of a Super Bowl. If he can hit deep passes like he did Sunday on a consistent basis people may be wrong. I am happy to have something positive to root for.

I 100% agree that they wont trade AR, and they wont do so because of the reasons you mentioned.

These are sunk costs. You make the statement that we might Only get a sixth rounder for him, suggesting that's what he's worth. So he is a sixth rounder with a $9M cap hit this year and a $10M cap hit next year.

I dunno how all this works, but just know I don't need to see anymore to know that AR is dead weight against our cap. I'd rather have the 6th rounder with a $1M cap hit to maybe make a play on special teams.

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by Pez

I 100% agree that they wont trade AR, and they wont do so because of the reasons you mentioned.

These are sunk costs. You make the statement that we might Only get a sixth rounder for him, suggesting that's what he's worth. So he is a sixth rounder with a $9M cap hit this year and a $10M cap hit next year.

I dunno how all this works, but just know I don't need to see anymore to know that AR is dead weight against our cap. I'd rather have the 6th rounder with a $1M cap hit to maybe make a play on special teams.

I get that. I just think there is a nonzero chance that AR hits it big. It depends on crap none of us are privy to. From what I can see from how he handles himself on the sideline AR doesn't appear to be sulking and seems genuinely into the team. If Jones can push the ball effectively downfield on a consistent basis it won't matter but if Jones reverts back to his Giant ways I want be able to see what we have in AR.

[Pez]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

I get that. I just think there is a nonzero chance that AR hits it big. It depends on crap none of us are privy to. From what I can see from how he handles himself on the sideline AR doesn't appear to be sulking and seems genuinely into the team. If Jones can push the ball effectively downfield on a consistent basis it won't matter but if Jones reverts back to his Giant ways I want be able to see what we have in AR.

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

o

In short, it is better to have an Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings than to have a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter waiting in the wings in case of an injury to the starting QB ...... at least with Richardson, the team still has a shot to overcome his limitations and mistakes, even if it is a long-shot. With a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter, you have virtually no shot at all.

Good points, If Jones becomes Jones and we need a backup to step up, I would just rather see what we have in Riley Leonard.

If I was having difficulty doing my job that was paying me $7M a year, I would have a veritable fleet of people and non-people resources helping me fill in the gaps in my skill set. The return on investment is staggering.

With all AR's resources and 3 years to bring them to bear, he has managed a 5-7 record. I don't see where he is entitled to the "benefit-of-the-doubt" that the colts org is granting him.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Pez

Good points, If Jones becomes Jones and we need a backup to step up, I would just rather see what we have in Riley Leonard.

If I was having difficulty doing my job that was paying me $7M a year, I would have a veritable fleet of people and non-people resources helping me fill in the gaps in my skill set. The return on investment is staggering.

With all AR's resources and 3 years to bring them to bear, he has managed a 5-7 record. I don't see where he is entitled to the "benefit-of-the-doubt" that the colts org is granting him.

Where do you get 5-7? He's 8-7.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Where do you get 5-7? He's 8-7.

Might be talking about HOU and TEN from '23 and PIT from '24. He played on 31%, 33%, and 19% of the snaps in those games respectively but they go down as wins for him and not the backup.

[Pez]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Where do you get 5-7? He's 8-7.

8-7 as a starter is correct. 5-7 in games where he's played the most snaps.

The net 3 difference is:

- The Houston win in 2023 where Minshew went 19 for 23 compared to ARs 6 for 10.
- The Tits win in 2023 where Minshew went 11 for 14 compared to ARs 9 for 12.
- The Steelers win in 2024 where Flacco went 16 for 26 and AR was 3 for 4.

8-7 as a starter, sure, but Minshew should get two of those wins and Flacco should get one, that's where I get 5-7.

I don't like the guy, you cant expect me to not use statistics to my advantage.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Pez

8-7 as a starter is correct. 5-7 in games where he's played the most snaps.

The net 3 difference is:

- The Houston win in 2023 where Minshew went 19 for 23 compared to ARs 6 for 10.
- The Tits win in 2023 where Minshew went 11 for 14 compared to ARs 9 for 12.
- The Steelers win in 2024 where Flacco went 16 for 26 and AR was 3 for 4.

8-7 as a starter, sure, but Minshew should get two of those wins and Flacco should get one, that's where I get 5-7.

I don't like the guy, you cant expect me to not use statistics to my advantage.

If AR doesn't play against Houston in 2023, the Colts lose. Yes, he left early, but he left with a 14-0 lead in a game that ended 31-20. Regardless, he's in his age 23 season this year, there's still a lot of time for him to become a good QB.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

If AR doesn't play against Houston in 2023, the Colts lose. Yes, he left early, but he left with a 14-0 lead in a game that ended 31-20. Regardless, he's in his age 23 season this year, there's still a lot of time for him to become a good QB.

You beat me to it. Also, he left the Tits game w/ ~4 minutes left in the 1st half and with a 10-6 lead. Not that Minshew didn't do a good job in relief and deserves a Save, but I don't think you take away the win from AR there either.

Some other thoughts on the discussions in the thread:

Jones was definitely much better in week 1 than I thought he'd be, and I'll eat that crow. Hope he can keep this level of play up. We'll see how he does against a better D where there's now some game film on how Steichen wants to use him.

I'd be shocked if we trade AR, and I don't think we should at this point. We'd only save ~$4M in cap space. Now if Jones proves this year that he should be our guy and we decide to move on from AR in the offseason then so be it (this will save us ~$5M in cap space for '26).

Something else with trading AR is that we'd probably bring in a 3rd QB for emergency QB duties. Not seeing where Bean signed anywhere, so I guess we could just bring him back to at least the PS.

[Colts And Orioles]

Originally Posted by Pez

I 100% agree that they wont trade Anthony Richardson, and they wont do so because of the reasons that you mentioned.

o

Another reason why they won't trade Anthony Richardson is because of the fact that football is such a brutal sport, Daniel Jones' season can end in a single play at any time in the season. And if that did happen, Richardson, as erratic, inconsistent, and frustrating as he often has been, is still a young, mobile quarterback who always has a puncher's chance to play well for at least part of a game. Last year's game against the Patriots was an example, when he had a relatively mediocre game overall for 3 and-a-half quarters, but then his sheer will, determination, athleticism, and physical strength drove the team to the winning TD in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Peyton Manning was such a great quarterback that he could give a team the proverbial puncher's chance to beat superior teams because of his greatness. Richardson is not that ...... but Richardson's proverbial puncher's chance is the fact that his exceptional athleticism and physical strength give him a shot to overcome his own limitations in the game (erratic passing, trouble reading defenses, etc.) to still be good enough to pull out a win.


In short, it is better to have an Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings than to have a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter waiting in the wings in case of an injury to the starting QB ...... at least with Richardson, the team still has a shot to overcome his limitations and mistakes, even if it is a long-shot. With a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter, they have virtually no shot at all.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

o

Another reason why they won't trade Anthony Richardson is because of the fact that football is such a brutal sport, Daniel Jones' season can end in a single play at any time in the season. And if that did happen, Richardson, as erratic, inconsistent, and frustrating as he often has been, is still a young, mobile quarterback who always has a puncher's chance to play well for at least part of a game. Last year's game against the Patriots was an example, when he had a relatively mediocre game overall for 3 and-a-half quarters, but then his sheer will, determination, athleticism, and physical strength took the team to the winning TD in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Peyton Manning was such a great quarterback that he could give a team the proverbial puncher's chance to beat superior teams because of his greatness. Richardson is not that ...... but Richardson's proverbial puncher's chance is the fact that his exceptional athleticism and physical strength give him a shot to overcome his own limitations in the game (erratic passing, trouble reading defenses, etc.) to still be good enough to pull out a win.


In short, it is better to have an Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings than to have a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter waiting in the wings in case of an injury to the starting QB ...... at least with Richardson, the team still has a shot to overcome his limitations and mistakes, even if it is a long-shot. With a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter, you have virtually no shot at all.

Well, as Tom Moore famously said. It doesn't matter who we have behind Peyton, if he goes down we're fucked.