Week 6 at Jax - Stats and Stuff

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Are they better than 0-4 though? I don’t think the hit rate is very high.

“Having already been in the select 0.01% of the top 1.6% of the top 7.3% of the nation, the chosen players might be dismayed to learn that only 30% of those drafted will ever make it onto an NFL roster.

Of course, this number is skewed and isn’t a straight line across the board. The players taken in the first and second rounds will definitely be on the opening day roster, barring some unforeseen injury or something. But the players taken in the sixth and seventh rounds may have only a 10% or 15% chance, at least in the first year or two.“

“And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.”

Looking at the numbers I think he has been average, in-line with the rest of the league. Tyquan and Dayo are contributing.


https://en.as.com/nfl/what-percentag...outputType=amp

https://www.dailynorseman.com/platfo...ains-very-high

When you look at this, you have to include OLBs that are edge rushers. When you do that, I see the following since 2018:

2023: 1 of 4 (Also way too early, Tuipulotu is starting and performing well for LAC though)
2022: 3-5 of 8 (You be the judge on Ebeketie and Hall, Mafe, Jackson, and Bonitto are hits)
2021: 0-1 of 3 (Ojulari is good when healthy, jury still out on Dayo)
2020: 2-4 of 5 (Yetur Gross-Matos, Darrell Taylor, and Josh Uche have all had stretches of high production)
2019: 0 of 1 (Just our bust Ben Banogu here)
2018: 2 of 4 (Harold Landry and Uchenna Nwosu are good starters, Turay and Lewis were busts comparatively)

If you take the low end numbers, that's 8 of 25 quality players (32% hit rate). At the high end, it's 13 of 25 quality players (52% hit rate). Either way, Ballard is performing way worse than average over that stretch. For reference, here are the players I included for each of the 6 years:

2023: Derick Hall, Isaiah Foskey, BJ Ojulari, Tuli Tuipulotu
2022: Logan Hall, Arnold Ebeketie, Boye Mafe, David Ojabo, Josh Paschal, Sam Williams, Drake Jackson, Nick Bonitto
2021: Azeez Ojulari, Dayo Odeyingbo, Carlos "Boogie" Basham
2020: Yetur Gross-Matos, Marlon Davidson, Darrell Taylor, A.J. Epenesa, Josh Uche
2019: Ben Banogu
2018: Harold Landry III, Uchenna Nwosu, Kemoko Turay, Tyquan Lewis