Frank reich is horrible

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Ahh yes, the hindsight defense. Very popular. More teams should employ it - see what the results are then make your decision. But what if I point out games where the 4th down conversion and scoring TDs instead of FGs were the deciding factor? Would you change your mind? Probably not since the question would be which is more likely to occur. I know! We should analyze how likely each event is to occur and how likely they are to contribute to victory using math and a lot of historical data. We could call it analytics or something!! I think we are on to something. This could be extremely valuable for NFL coaches!! Of course hindsight users will always hate it since hindsight has proven to be a superior analysis tool commonly used by NFL fans.

People also often don't take into consideration the butterfly effect.

If you lose by 2pts... People point to that first quarter field goal miss as the reason you lost.

When really, if you made the field goal, all subsequent series of events would be different. You actually could've lost the game by 14pts had you made the field goal. Or you could've won by 10pts. We don't know.

[TheMugwump]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

People also often don't take into consideration the butterfly effect.

If you lose by 2pts... People point to that first quarter field goal miss as the reason you lost.

When really, if you made the field goal, all subsequent series of events would be different. You actually could've lost the game by 14pts had you made the field goal. Or you could've won by 10pts. We don't know.

I find this a particularly compelling argument when made by a poster calling himself "ChaosTheory".

Dr. Ian Malcolm would approve.

[Colts And Orioles]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

People also often don't take into consideration the butterfly effect.

If you lose a game by 2 points ...... people point to that first quarter field-goal miss as the reason why you lost the game.

In reality, if you had made that field goal, all subsequent series of events would be different. You actually might have lost the game by 14 points had you made the field goal ...... or you might have won by 10 points ...... we don't know.

o


Excellent citation of the cause-and-effect phenomenon.

The same is true of baseball (and pretty much almost every other sport.) When a base-runner gets caught stealing and the batter then hits a solo home run immediately afterward, many fans will say that he would have hit a 2-run homer if the base-runner had stayed put ...... but if the base-runner had stayed put, the pitcher would have been pitching from the stretch (as opposed to a full windup) and likely would have thrown a different pitch than the one in which produced the home run. And the batter may have been looking for a different pitch than the one in which he homered off of.

So if the runner had stayed at first base, the batter might have hit a 2-run home run ...... or he might have hit an RBI-triple into the gap ...... or he might have grounded into a double play.

o