The Colts QB in 2021 is?...

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I went on Spotrac to look again just now and saw the ~$9.8 million signing bonus in the second column. I don't know how I missed that the first time. Reassessing, I see that trading for Wentz would come with a 4 year/$98.4 million contract, and based on the "potential out" shown on spotrac, it's essentially a 1 year/$25.4 million contract with a 3 year club option at $73 million that the Colts can walk away from with no dead cap (the dead cap shown on Spotrac is the stuff that would get accelerated into 2021 upon a trade). So if the Colts decided to go this route, they'd effectively try him out for 1 year, and if it doesn't work out, walk away with no obligation and likely a high draft pick to secure their franchise QB of the future, and if it does, have their franchise QB on a bargain deal. That seems worth a 3 to me.

Your recalculated numbers are largely correct, with one significant exception. The Colts would not only take on his guaranteed $25.4 salary in 2021, but also would assume a minimum of $15M in salary under the 2022 cap because per Wentz’s contract this portion of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to NEXT (2021) season – meaning that it would become guaranteed long before we would ever see Wentz play in a Colts uniform. Since I highly doubt that we’d trade for and then cut him before that point, this amount would for all practical purposes be guaranteed. So depending upon how long we would decide to keep him, the existing contract would equate to any one of the following (our choice):

1 Year / $40.4M
2 Year / $47.4M
3 year / $72.4M
4 year / $98.4M

On the issue of trade value, reasonable minds can of course disagree. Certainly, he brings a lot of upside, and that upside by itself is no doubt worth a 3rd round pick in isolation, but we also have to consider the cost to the Colts (at least $40.4M, probably more), the risks/potential downside given his most recent performance, and perhaps most importantly the existing pressure on Philly to unload him. They are something like $60M-$70M over next year’s cap already, so they desperately need to make some major changes and can’t afford to keep paying a backup QB this kind of money. Those factors should significantly reduce his value in a negotiation context to the point that I think only a nominal pick and/or player would be required in return.

In a way, I’d actually be strangely encouraged if the Colts were forced into giving the Eagles a 3rd round pick for him, since that would suggest to me that we REALLY like him and are confident that whatever went wrong this season can be fixed, and/or that there was lots of competition for him and thus other teams like him as well. I have faith in the process here, since I don’t think Ballard will be bamboozled into paying significantly more than he’s worth.