Ballard and Steichen are safe

[IndyNorm]

Spotrac has the number at $52 Million, which is substantially more than Over The Cap’s 34. Part of that is the fact that Spotrac is counting only the top 41 players. Another part is that they peg the cap in 2026 at a higher number. Another curiosity is that, just a day ago, Over The Cap was saying the Colts had $45 Million in cap space. I’m not sure what changed in 24 hours.

Interesting. Not sure why Spotrac would only include the top 41, but obviously including the top 51 is going to more accurate with the additional 10 players probably counting ~$10M towards the cap. Also, the total cap liabilities on OTC is $7M more than the top 51, which probably covers things like the rookie pool, etc. Maybe that wasn't being accounted for when you looked earlier on.

My guess is that the number will end up just a bit over $40 Million, and you’re right that we need to carve out a chunk of cap space.

So, how to do it?

Right now, there are four players on the roster…Buckner, Nelson, Pittman, and Taylor…who count a combined $95 Million against the cap. Inking them to new contracts, each with first year cap hits of $12 Million, would free up $47 Million and give you a certain amount of roster certainty.

There are another three players…Zaire Franklin, Grover Stewart, and Kenny Moore….who count $35 Million. Arguably, they are each past their prime, and cutting them would open up another $29 Million. A less harsh option would be to request that they sign new deals for less money.

If Charvarius Ward retires, we get $25 Million in cap relief if we want to take him to arbitration and wrench back the prorated $13 Million of his signing bonus. Personally, I think that that would send a bad message to the locker room, that if you suffer a catastrophic injury, the team will try to extort money from you.

Alternatively, there are a dozen players on the roster who earn a combined $144 Million in salary and bonuses. If you convert that money to bonuses and extend it over the maximum 5 years allowed by the CBA, you can free up well over $100 Million.

Good analysis other than the suggestion to go after the prorated portion of Ward's signing bonus. Although most of the players we would look to extend are 30+, so not sure what the appetite is to extend them. Also, pushing cap hits into the future is something Ballard has avoided doing in the past, so he'll have to step out of his comfort zone there.