Lies, damned lies, statistics, and PFF

[Kray007]

I’ll start out by saying I’m not a big fan of analytics were applied to pro football, but… I’m paying PFF good money, so I figure what the heck, dive right in.

That having been said, they just released their power rankings for 2026, and the Colts ranked 22nd. Now, I’m a great believer in the proposition that everyone is entitled to an opinion, even if it is stupid.

What I can’t figure out is how an organization like PFF, built on a foundation of numbers, can make that calculus. To me, it should be simple. Take the grades for every projected starter, add them up, and see what you’ve got. Easy, breezy, lemon peasy.

But, no. Nowhere does PFF deign to do anything resembling that. Instead, their statistician cleared off a corner of his desk, pulled out a crystal ball and gazed deep into its murky depths.

So, being the all around helpful soul that I am, I did it for them, using Ourlad’s depth charts, for what I consider the cream of the AFC...I tossed in Tennessee because they’re in the division, excluded Pittsburgh and New England because one is washed up and the other overrated, and left out Denver and the Chargers because, frankly, I tired of the tedium.

So, in inverse order, from 8 to 1…

8) Tennessee 1,487 points
7) Cincinnati 1,536
6) Buffalo 1,540
5) Baltimore 1,562
4) Jacksonville 1,579
3) Houston 1,622
2) KC 1,637
Indianapolis 1,653

The numbers seem, to me, to validate the team’s pre Jones injury rise to the upper reaches of the league, a fact seemingly ignored by the nattering nabobs of negativity among the sporting press.

Of course, as always, past results do not guarantee future…

[Oldcolt]

You don't get trophies for being good half of a season. I get there were reasons for our collapse, there always are. Thing is nobody remembers what they are for more than a year or two. Until this team actually wins something 22nd is fine by me. Low expectations are, hopefully, our friend.

[ChaosTheory]

I don't know the methodology here or if it's subjective opinion. I would just say that it's pretty rare for every beat writer to keep up with the nuances of the one team they follow... guys who try to cover an entire division are an even worse hit rate...

So almost all the guys claiming to have an opinion on all 32 teams... it's one of those vast as an ocean, deep as a puddle things.

For example, I just listened to a piece that Nate Tice had on the AFC South and when he got to the Colts, he and a co-host were talking about how Daniel Jones won't be playing under center because of his Achilles and how that is going to significantly hamper the playbook, hurt Jonathan Taylor, etc...

As if Jones hasn't been basically full-go since mini-camp.

And if that wasn't enough, he threw in gems like, "They signed Charvarius Ward last year, who had a nice year... pretty healthy year, if I remember correctly, as well."

I mean, if that's the type of perception guys are working with... it makes perfect sense why they think the 7-game slide is the true indicator and the first 10 games were the anomaly - which equals a bottom 1/3 team prediction from most people.

[Oldcolt]

While i agree totally with you that most writers don't have nearly the knowledge of the people that follow teams closely. This year we are a team that is extremely difficult to predict. Nobody really knows if those first 10 games were truly real or if we were playing over our heads against poor teams. It makes this a very interesting year, at least in the beginning, to follow us. With the addition of Allen if Pierce comes back fully DJ should have as good if not better (I think Allen is better than Pittman as a receiver, Warren should improve etc) targets than last year. Slowly i am beginning to have some hope.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

While i agree totally with you that most writers don't have nearly the knowledge of the people that follow teams closely. This year we are a team that is extremely difficult to predict. Nobody really knows if those first 10 games were truly real or if we were playing over our heads against poor teams. It makes this a very interesting year, at least in the beginning, to follow us. With the addition of Allen if Pierce comes back fully DJ should have as good if not better (I think Allen is better than Pittman as a receiver, Warren should improve etc) targets than last year. Slowly i am beginning to have some hope.

Nobody knows? People who actually watched at least some of those first 10 games know. The Colts were dominant on both sides of the ball before the injuries to Jones and Buckner. 1st in practically every offensive category, Top 5 in most defensive categories. If you look through NFL history, there aren't many teams that finish Top 5 on both sides of the ball, and the ones who do typically win the Super Bowl.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Kray007

I’ll start out by saying I’m not a big fan of analytics were applied to pro football, but… I’m paying PFF good money, so I figure what the heck, dive right in.

That having been said, they just released their power rankings for 2026, and the Colts ranked 22nd. Now, I’m a great believer in the proposition that everyone is entitled to an opinion, even if it is stupid.

What I can’t figure out is how an organization like PFF, built on a foundation of numbers, can make that calculus. To me, it should be simple. Take the grades for every projected starter, add them up, and see what you’ve got. Easy, breezy, lemon peasy.

But, no. Nowhere does PFF deign to do anything resembling that. Instead, their statistician cleared off a corner of his desk, pulled out a crystal ball and gazed deep into its murky depths.

So, being the all around helpful soul that I am, I did it for them, using Ourlad’s depth charts, for what I consider the cream of the AFC...I tossed in Tennessee because they’re in the division, excluded Pittsburgh and New England because one is washed up and the other overrated, and left out Denver and the Chargers because, frankly, I tired of the tedium.

So, in inverse order, from 8 to 1…

8) Tennessee 1,487 points
7) Cincinnati 1,536
6) Buffalo 1,540
5) Baltimore 1,562
4) Jacksonville 1,579
3) Houston 1,622
2) KC 1,637
Indianapolis 1,653

The numbers seem, to me, to validate the team’s pre Jones injury rise to the upper reaches of the league, a fact seemingly ignored by the nattering nabobs of negativity among the sporting press.

Of course, as always, past results do not guarantee future…

Are you using college grades for rookies? That would skew this quite a bit.

[Oldcolt]

Dam, I should have been more accurate. Of course you know. You know everything and never doubt yourself. For the rest of humanity, there is the last 10 year history of the franchise and the second half of the year where the team just quit (harsh i know but when i look at how JT suddenly forgot how to pass protect the second people went down etc it bugs the shit out of me) it does cause some of us to have a question mark. That isn't the same as not believing they were incredible the first half, just not sure that that is this teams true pedigree. I hope it is.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

Dam, I should have been more accurate. Of course you know. You know everything and never doubt yourself. For the rest of humanity, there is the last 10 year history of the franchise and the second half of the year where the team just quit (harsh i know but when i look at how JT suddenly forgot how to pass protect the second people went down etc it bugs the shit out of me) it does cause some of us to have a question mark. That isn't the same as not believing they were incredible the first half, just not sure that that is this teams true pedigree. I hope it is.

I can be very opinionated and I will argue fiercely for something I believe is correct, but I don't know everything. For example, before I watched the Bootleg video, I didn't know the Colts pre-Jones injury and post-Jones injury playcalling pattern. Pre-Jones injury, the Colts were one of the most pass heavy first down teams in the NFL, and one of the most run heavy second down teams. Post-Jones injury, the Colts were one of the most run heavy first down teams, and one of the most pass heavy second down teams. Why is that relevant? Well, the first pattern does two things: 1) Allows your offense to use first down as a shot play down more often, which will lead to more frequent first down to first down conversions and more favorable second down situations typically and 2) It throws the defense off, because it's the opposite of the pattern they typically defend. Given those two factors, is it any surprise that the Colts went from a pre-Jones injury 5.7 YPC average to a post-Jones injury 3.3 YPC average? If you become more predictable as an offense and play more into what the defense expects, of course your production and success is going to go down, but the Colts were forced to do this because no one feared a Philip Rivers deep ball to Alec Pierce, nor did they fear a Philip Rivers scramble.

And make no mistake, I have my doubts about this team, but they're mostly health related. Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce, DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, and Charvarius Ward are all players who are vital to this team's success, and all of them either missed significant time last year, are coming off of major injuries, and/or are currently injured. The talent on the roster is capable of great things, but that's only if they can all stay on the field.

[Oldcolt]

Dam, so you have an opinion. A strong opinion. Opinions are not knowledge, even yours. You still don't know. Nobody does.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

Dam, so you have an opinion. A strong opinion. Opinions are not knowledge, even yours. You still don't know. Nobody does.

Of course we don't know. That's what makes it interesting to discuss. What's your point?