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Originally Posted by Oldcolt
So if I understand your position, Ballard is a genius because HE is so good at 'hitting' those middle round picks like Raimann but any other GM is just a lucky bastard. Ok let's hire a lucky bastard then. My bottom line is that Lynch has produced a winning team and Ballard hasn't. Make all the excuse you want, Ballard's your boy you are free to love on him. And as far as AR is concerned you obviously don't read my posts. I wanted AR over DJ and still do. I have zero faith in DJ ever leading this team to anything. If AR is a bust, in my opinion, it is mostly do to the Colts fucking up his development. Now he may never play again due to a freak accident, I get that.
You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy (and had the foresight to have a coach in place that actually knew how to develop him, also part of a GMs job. Ballards initial genius move was McDaniels) and they are still playing football. It's amazing how some GMs are just so lucky. Again, wish we had one
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No, you might not understand my position. You guys are so quick to jump to, "Oh, you don't want him fired? So I guess he's just Jesus Christ Incarnate. Let me know how his toes taste."
My mentioning of AR had nothing to do with your post—it was to emphasize the comparison to the Trey Lance situation. Jury is still out on AR as far as I'm concerned, but many are calling him an outright bust. If he's a bust, it still pales in comparison to Trey Lance and his exorbitant price tag. But Mr. Irrelevant made the Trey Lance situation irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldcolt
You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy
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This is precisely outcome bias. John Lynch is a good GM and built a good roster. If Brock Purdy wasn't a miracle and the 49ers were in QB purgatory for a while... some people would say he's fireable and some people would say he's still a good GM—he took a swing and missed, but we still want him building the surrounding cast when QB is resolved.
Seems like you'd be in the former, I'd be in the latter.
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As far as comparing picks like Raimann to Purdy... sure, you can say there's a stain of luck on any non-1st round draft pick who turns out to be upper echelon at his position. But this is a category error.
QB is unique. It is inherently the highest variance position in the game. 7th round QB's NEVER become starting, franchise QBs. But at the same, I think something like 60% of 1st round QBs since 2000 are busts. Less than a quarter we would say lived up and became good/great QBs and the remaining quarter we would probably call "serviceable starters" or something.
A 3rd round OL has far less variance. Mid-round OL hits are common enough that they reflect scouting skill and system fit. They are repeatable which is why you can multiple instances of Ballard revamping the OL producing a top unit.
Brock Purdy is not repeatable.