Generally speaking there is a high correlation, but not necessarily. The Division games are obviously important because they make up 35% of your games. But look at 2010 for example:
-The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West at 10-6 although they had a 2-4 division record.
-The Oakland Raiders finished 3rd in the AFC West and missed the playoffs at 8-8 despite sweeping the division 6-0.
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