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Originally Posted by Puck
This is exactly why you get so much push back. You ALWAYS think you're smarter than everyone else When you can see you're not, more people will take you more seriously
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I don't really understand this. We're discussing opinions, I'm not just going to change mine because there are more or louder opinions from others. If I'm trying to change anyone else's opinion, I'm going to cite evidence that can be verified. Again, I'm not claiming to be an expert, but the best experts get it wrong more than half the time. That makes the margin between the best experts and random chance (which comes in at about 22% success) about 20%.
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Originally Posted by Oldcolt
It is somewhat insulting to think that what I do as a hobby I’m just as good as someone who has committed their lives to a job. No way my hour every few days is as good as spending 8 hours or more a day every day studying these dudes. Expertise takes time.
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You're right, expertise does take time. According to people who study such things, expertise takes approximately 10,000 hours of investment in any subject to obtain. I'm no Dane Brugler, but I'd say over 16 years of doing my own film analysis of prospects, I've put in about half that amount of time. It would be neat to put Dane Brugler levels of time into it, but I don't have that much time available to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldcolt
There is no line. We all get to have our opinions, hold them strongly and argue over it. It is great because in the end it is just a game-the best game but still just entertainment. I am opinionated enough that every once in a blue moon I get it right over the pros. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.
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When does it become more than "a blind squirrel finds a nut"?