[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Your recalculated numbers are largely correct, with one significant exception. The Colts would not only take on his guaranteed $25.4 salary in 2021, but also would assume a minimum of $15M in salary under the 2022 cap because per Wentz’s contract this portion of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to NEXT (2021) season – meaning that it would become guaranteed long before we would ever see Wentz play in a Colts uniform. Since I highly doubt that we’d trade for and then cut him before that point, this amount would for all practical purposes be guaranteed. So depending upon how long we would decide to keep him, the existing contract would equate to any one of the following (our choice):

1 Year / $40.4M
2 Year / $47.4M
3 year / $72.4M
4 year / $98.4M

On the issue of trade value, reasonable minds can of course disagree. Certainly, he brings a lot of upside, and that upside by itself is no doubt worth a 3rd round pick in isolation, but we also have to consider the cost to the Colts (at least $40.4M, probably more), the risks/potential downside given his most recent performance, and perhaps most importantly the existing pressure on Philly to unload him. They are something like $60M-$70M over next year’s cap already, so they desperately need to make some major changes and can’t afford to keep paying a backup QB this kind of money. Those factors should significantly reduce his value in a negotiation context to the point that I think only a nominal pick and/or player would be required in return.

In a way, I’d actually be strangely encouraged if the Colts were forced into giving the Eagles a 3rd round pick for him, since that would suggest to me that we REALLY like him and are confident that whatever went wrong this season can be fixed, and/or that there was lots of competition for him and thus other teams like him as well. I have faith in the process here, since I don’t think Ballard will be bamboozled into paying significantly more than he’s worth.

That doesn't make sense with the potential out listed on Spotrac. Clearly, there has to be a way to get out of the contract while absorbing only the signing bonus and option bonus amounts (which would be 0 with the Colts). I don't think you're right about the 2022 salary being guaranteed. There has to be some sort of out. Why would they go out of their way to list it otherwise? Do you have some sort of proof of that second year guarantee claim?

Even if you were right about the second year guarantee, $40 million would represent a $5 million decrease in investment in the QB position for the Colts.