Colts Current Roster - Defense
 

Where do we sit right now and where do we need to get better? One man's opinion.

Defensive Tackle:

On Roster: Denico Autry, Tyquan Lewis, Hassan Ridgeway, Grover Stewart, DeShawn Williams

Impending Free Agents: Al Woods, Margus Hunt

Thoughts: I don't think we re-sign either Woods or Hunt; both are on the wrong side of 30 years old on a team still trying to get younger for the long haul. I think Autry, Lewis and Ridgeway are a solid roation but would love to get at least two more high end bodies for this position group; ONE from free agency and ONE from the draft. If Ridgeway ends up being our #5 DT in 2019, I think we are in pretty solid shape.

Defensive End:

On Roster: Jabaal Sheard, Kemoko Turray, Jihad Ward, Al-Quadin Muhammad,

Impending Free Agents: None.

Thoughts: Again, I like the four deep of Sheard, Turray, Ward and Muhammad well enough. They are SCREAMING for a top end starter over the top of them to demand the double team but as a whole, I don't hate how those four played in 2018. I again like the "ONE and ONE" scenario by adding a talented Free Agent DE AND drafting one in the first couple of rounds of the draft to make the position group stronger. A DE position group of: Veteran FA, Rookie, Sheard, Turray and then Ward / Muhammad fighting for spot #5 would put the position group in a good spot.

Linebacker:

On Roster: Darius Leonard, Anthony Wallker Jr, Matthew Adams, Zaire Franklin, Skai Moore, Anthony Winbush

Free Agents: Najee Goode

Thoughts: Not getting any better than Darius Leonard so WSLB is set for years. Walker was "fine" at MLB but there are a couple of veterans who might make it to market this year that I would be willing to sign to surplant him and move him to SSLB / depth. Depth is okay right now with Adams and Franklin so that is solid. I would love to add a top end veteran free agent to the group at MLB but if that guy does not happen, then I am fine running with whom we have as starters in Leonard / Walker / Adams (he was getting a lot more snaps at the end of the year than Franklin) but I would love to push Walker down to SSLB / depth with another high quality body at MLB.

Safety:

On Roster: Malik Hooker, George Odum, Ahmad Thomas, Rolan Milligan

Impending Free Agents: Clayton Geathers, Matthias Farley (RFA), Mike Mitchell, J.J. Wilcox, Ronald Martin (ERFA), Corey Moore (RFA)

Thoughts: That is a whole LOT of impending free agent safeties for the Colts. I like Mike Mitchell but he is probably too old to re-sign. I also like both Geathers and Farley and would love to retain both of them. That would give us a returning three of Hooker, Geathers and Farley which is solid. For upgrade, I again like the "ONE and ONE" method of adding a talented veteran free agent and then adding a rookie from the draft. Let those five guys fight out who are starters and who are depth; I expect us to play a ton of "big 3" safety in this defense so we really end up playing a lot of bodies.

Cornerback:

On Roster: Kenny Moore, Qunicy Wilson, Nate Hairston, Jalen Collins, D.J. Killings

Impending Free Agents: Pierre Desir, Chris Milton (RFA)

Thoughts: A top three CB of Moore, Desir and Wilson with depth of Milton and Hairston is not terrible. Moore is blooming into a starter and Desir put on a pretty fantastic audition for a good veteran contract. Hopefully, Wilson will continue to improve and become a full time starter in year 3. I would love to add another talented body to the group either in free agency or the draft but I don't know that I think we need any starters if Desir is re-signed. I would be happy in 2019 with Moore, Desir, Wilson and a talented ADD as our top four with Hairston and Milton as depth.

DEFENSE TO-DO LIST:

1. Sign Desir to a 3-year veteran contract as a borderline CB1 probably in the $7 - $9m a year range.

2. Sign Clayton Geathers to a 3-year veteran contract as a borderline starter (injury history impacted) in the depressed safety market can probably match Glowinski's contract of $6m a year.

3. Offer Mattias Farley an RFA tag with 2nd round compensation (around $3.1m)

4. Look for starting quality veteran free agents that fit the culture/age/skill matrix Ballard is looking for at DT (NT or 3-tech), DE, MLB, Safety, and CB. Sign as many as feasible.

5. Depending on work done in step 4, target drafting in the top four rounds of the draft: DT, DE, Safety, CB.

Hope for year two improvements from the players as they get more comfortable with the scheme and hopefully the Colts will have a defense that can hold its end of the bargin up by being top half of league. With a high powered offense, that should be good enough.

If the defense becomes a top ten strength? Even better.

Walk Worthy,

I suspect I differ from most on this, but I see SS as a significant need and I would look to upgrade from Geathers. We know Hooker isn't going to attack downhill and close space in either the run game or the short passing game. This scheme really needs that from the other safety position.

A really good SS who negates a lot of yards would be my next area of emphasis after the pass rush.

I also want an upgrade to Gethers. I think he could be good if given time, but injuries keep derailing his momentum.

Hooker actually made some downhill attacks against the Chiefs. Is it his strength? No. But he is making progress. He is still the first choice as the single high.

I want the SS from the Giants who we should have drafted. Hope he hits FA.

Completely agree

SS would probably rank as the #2 need on the team for me behind DE/pass rusher. Geathers and Farley are both good when healthy, but health is an issue for both. Johnathan Abram is a guy in the draft who I think could come in and solve that issue, or Landon Collins in free agency should he get there.

I’m all for goin after Collins but listening to Ballard he seemed pretty high on geathers

I’m hoping we draft the monster DT out of Clemson myself

Dexter Lawrence doesn't really fit what Eberflus likes to do on defense. Montez Sweat would've been exactly what he wants, but there's no way he gets out of the top 15 now. The Colts will likely be high on and go after guys like Jerry Tillery, L.J. Collier, Kingsley Keke, Charles Omenihu, and Anthony Nelson, and I wouldn't be shocked if one or two of those guys become Colts, especially Omenihu, who has the length Eberflus loves.

If they are going to continue with the 2 A gap DT idea I wonder if there is another skill set they will be looking for.

I still think we need another good corner. The current group is OK as long as you can play zone for the most part and limit other teams. I had a post on this earlier in the year, they really did not face many top quality QBs this season, so I would not trust the corners are as good as indicated. When they faced veterans and or good QBs in Eli, Brady, Mahomes, they pretty well got eaten alive.

But sass rush is obvious, that is by far the #1 need. Wherever it comes from, either LB or DE or wherever possible. That will help the corners as well

I suspect this strategy was more compensatory (trying to cover for the limitations of the current DL) than being a central part of the defensive scheme.

Lengthy tweener DE/DT types? Check out my other post and let me know what those 5 players have in common.

Agree. But what is they built around that philosophy? It seemed to work well

So Clowney. Big enough and quick enough

It worked well until it didn't. New looks work well because opposing teams aren't prepared for them.

Agreed on Abram and Collins, but Abram has his own medical concerns after failing his physical (shoulder) and not being able to play at the Senior Bowl.

I'd prefer Lawrence, Clark, or Ford to Clowney, but if the Texans decide they don't want him and he doesn't want break the bank money, Clowney would be a decent add.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence isn't even on the Colts draft board. This scheme doesn't emphasize 2 gap players.

Pretty sure he meant DeMarcus Lawrence from the Cowgirls as a free agent. Also Frank Clark from SEA and Dee Ford from KC as free agents.

None of those guys are tweeners; they are all pure outside pass rush Freeney want-a-bees.

Walk Worthy,

Clark is listed at 6'3" 265, as is DeMarcus Lawrence, and top rush trait for both players is their length. They both timed fairly slow for DEs as well (each ran a ~4.8 40). They've obviously both had success as outside rushers, but neither is going to be mistaken for Dwight Freeney any time soon (though Freeney was sort of one of a kind, 6'1" 270 DEs that run a 4.4 40 don't happen often). These are the types of players the Colts will likely look for, DE/DT types in the 6'3"-6'7" 260-300 range who have long arms and large wingspans. I mentioned about 5 players earlier who fit this mold, several of which had good Senior Bowl weeks, which seems to influence Ballard. Charles Omenihu is the one who most fits this bill IMO.

The other type of DE they might look for is one in the Robert Mathis type mold, a player with good speed and pass rush skill who might be considered slightly undersized for traditional 4-3 DE (6'2" 250 ~4.5 40 type of player). That's what they tried to draft in Kemoko Turay. Dee Ford fits this mold perfectly.

I'd take Lawrence over Wilkins if I had to draft one of the Clemson DTs. You just don't see guys his size move with the agility that he displays. Wilkins doesn't impress me as a gap penetrator. I would like if Jeffery Simmons dropped to the Colts, but that doesn't seem likely and Ballard might not even pick him because of character concerns.

Not sure why. It would not only help us it hurts a division opponent. I do value your opinion on speed rushers though.

Earlier you said you think SS is #2 need. I am torn between SS and 3 tech

Do you have the faith in what we have for 3 Tech over what we have for SS?

I think Lewis might be pretty good.

Autry showed some good flashes late last year, but you're always on the lookout for good 3-techs. Based on the supply, I wouldn't be surprised if Ballard addresses SS in UFA and reinforces DL in the draft. There are several solid safeties hitting UFA and the recent market for safeties has been pretty soft. Ballard may find an Ebron-esque SS addition this offseason.

Lewis will also compete at 3-tech next season(provided we find an Edge guy to replace him). A combination of Lewis and Autry is pretty formidable at 3-tech imo.

That's why I feel its imperative to get the Edge guy first, then focus on NT.

I wouldn't mind if 2 of the first 3 picks were invested this way.

NT would be 5 or 6 on my list behind

Edge
3 tech
SS
WR
CB

With 3 tech and SS a toss up

Autry had 9 sacks and was a pro bowl alternate. That would be the Colts starter at UT next year. Hunt could also be retained as a rotational player getting snaps at UT and NT. I think that position is way more set than SS, where there's Farley coming off of IR and Geathers who is a FA and has had quite a few of his own problems with health.

Speaking of 9 sacks, that was the number that Clowney had last year, and he only has 29 for his career and has never broken 10 in a single season. That's why I don't want to break the bank for Clowney. Does it really hurt a division rival to lose an underachiever and save that money to spend on things that will improve their team? Clowney is definitely an untapped potential guy, and I'd definitely take him on an Ebron type prove it deal, but the Texans will pay him more than that. If the Colts are going to go after any Texans free agent, I'd want Tyrann Mathieu.

I look at the DL in terms of needing 8 good players. Obviously you want one or more premier pass rushers, but another route is to get enough solid guys that you can keep coming in waves. On paper, it appears to me that they only have half of what they need by that standard:

Sheard
Autry
Lewis
Turay

Maybe Stewart is a fifth at NT. Regardless, that leaves 3-4 spots that need upgraded. We're probably looking at 1-2 draft picks (first 3 rounds) and 1-2 UFAs.

The Texans think their window is now and they will break the bank open to resign as much talent as they can. Clowney is a physical marvel, but he had to learn technique and skill. He is still growing I guess you could say, but he also has a talented defense around him.

The Jags also think their window is now and I don't like the idea that Foles is likely going there. They are dangerous with a good QB. Although they are still weak in the WR dept, but Foles throws a catchable ball and shouldn't be a huge problem.

I think we need a 3 down player at the 3-tech. We can move guys around But Autry is an end and only goes inside on passing downs. We need beef and talent in the middle to build around. Another end would be nice too. The OSU DT is versatile and can play inside and out, match him with Tillery and I think we would have a nice Dline group to grow with.

I don't mind Abrams at safety. I thought he looked good when I watched a few MSU games. Lit a couple people up with hits. But that seems like a luxury pick when we really need more pressure up the middle and from the ends. Unless these guys are going to suddenly go nuts like the pats defense did in the playoffs. Also there are some decent options for safety on the market. It was a bad market for safety last year, but there were some decent guys available.

Games are so close now. It isn't the first quarter, it's the 4th quarter that is important. Can your guys hold up till the end? Depth helps alleviate that, so you have a pass rush in the 4th quarter, or they don't wilt under an offensive line that is running to seal the game.

Are you saying that Autry "should" be an end who moves inside on passing downs? He always lined up inside in 2018.

Yep, Autry consistently lined up as a UT last year, and it worked pretty well, so why change it? I'd love to get a guy like Jeffery Simmons, but he's projected to go 15-20 at this point on the low end. I just don't know if the 12th-14th DL in this class is as good as the #1 S or the #2 or #3 CB, and that may be the choice the Colts are faced with. Trading down might even become their best option, depending on what QBs are available and who gets really desperate for one.

They certainly may have played themselves out of a good spot for a pass rusher in Rd1, which is why I keep bringing up other positions like WR and SS. They're likely to have a really good player available at a position of need, but it may not be the perfect match some on here would like.

SS I'd be fine with (I like Abram), but I'd rather draft Noah Fant or trade down than draft a WR. I don't view WR as a big need at all, nor do I see it as a position Ballard would want to pick in Round 1, especially given how reliant Reich's offense is on TE production, and how much Luck likes to target TEs.

I’m saying Autry is listed at 260 lbs. He isn’t a 3-tech for every down. We went down that road with Dungy’s defense.

Simmons might drop because he punched a girl in high school and it’s on video.

I’m eyeing Wilkins, or maybe Tillery.

Yes we did, with Keyunta Dawson. But let's not confuse their skill sets.

260 lbs still has trouble defending the run. He is a better player. Doesn’t make him weigh more.

I doubt Simmons drops far, most mocks I've seen have him gone by 14.

I didn't like what I saw of Wilkins (he did not "singlehandedly beat Alabama" as I've seen claimed so many times, for example), and Tillery seems like a guy who could be had at 34 or later.

Autry is listed at 270. It's light for a DT, and he's probably playing heavier, but he's listed at 270.

The Colts had the 6th best yards/attempt rush defense in the NFL last year. And that was with Autry playing inside.

Hard pass. This team needs a legitimate WR2 before it needs an upgrade at TE3.

My main point was that I don't think the first round pick should be used on a skill position player of any sort. If you can't improve the DL or secondary at 26, trading down is the best option to me. That said, resigning Inman solves WR2 for me, and with the injury issues Doyle has had and Ebron's inconsistency, TE could be a position at which this team lacks depth or a true starter fairly easily.