I'm officially on the Stroud bandwagon
 

These are the two videos that convinced me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvGn1WgYQSQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkPc4SZS5Ok

While I think that Levis has the most upside, I see to many Wentzism's to ever believe that he will get there.

Stroud has room to grow as well, but I believe that he is closer to his ceiling and his ceiling will be very very good.

I am officially on the AR15 bandwagon. Swing big or go home. This kid has HUGE upside

Glad to have you on board. Levis is damn near a Wentz clone, right down to the foot pointing problem, lack of concern for ball security, and the gingerness. Hard pass on Levis.

o


I like Stroud.

I would love for CJ Stroud-to-Parris Campbell to become a thing, with the 2 former Buckeyes making a name for themselves with the Colts.

o

I missed this thread. I really like O'Sullivan's vids. I haven't watched the Stroud vid yet, but I've seen the Levis and I agree. He may have upside, but the footwork, accuracy, and Wentz flashbacks are scary. When people say arm talent, I guess they're talking about the deep balls, because I haven't been all that impressed with the rest of the throws.

I honestly haven't even really looked at Bryce Young much. I just can't get over a 190lbs. QB.

I will not watch young either. I would hat tailor an offense around him, taking 7 to 9 step drops most of the time, because he can't see over the O-Line.

Give me processing and accuracy above all else. Now can they get him at 4?

No, which is why trading up to 1 is essential. I'd rather give up just about anything but next year's 1 to do it, but that will likely have to be part of the deal unless the Colts are willing to trade some of their best players and the Bears value them. If they can avoid giving up next year's 1, pairing Stroud with Harrison Jr. in the NFL would be ideal.

Man, it sucks, but I have a feeling Eberflus would want some of our young guys on D on the table. Ultimately it's worth it if you believe in the QB.

I'd gladly give them the 4th pick, Taylor, and Leonard, get Stroud, and keep next year's 1. That's the best of all worlds IMO.

You sniffing glue? No way in the fucking world is Stroud worth that haul. I'm glad you're not our GM. We would be stuck in the 80's as a team. There is not ONE. SINGLE. QB. in this draft worth trading shit for. They all have a higher risk of bust than franchise. You have to be one of the worse talent evaluators on this board. Your knowledge of football is exceptional most times, which is the puzzling part when you start hyping guys. Most of the ones you were willing to hock the farm for the last few years are not even in the league anymore, or 2nd. string and bench riders.

I agree that is too much of a haul for Stroud when only moving up a few spots.

This from Matt Miller on ESPN seems to back that up:

"In this scenario, the Colts take the plunge, sending the Bears the Nos. 4 and 35 picks, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounder to jump to the top.

I spoke to a few people in the league for context on what might seem like a fair deal, and this fits for both franchises. Indy can get its signal-caller, and Chicago should still have the chance to land a top defender while adding a haul of draft assets, including a valuable second-rounder."

Now if you wanna substitute one of those pick for a player, then that may be possible as well.

That's to much to move up 3 spots. Stroud, Levis, Richardson, and Young are not worth any move out of the spot we are in. We have way to many holes to be moving that kind of draft capital. I would take Carr first before I gave up anything for those guys. NOT A SINGLE ONE is worth jumping 3 spots, not a one of them.

It may be too much, but Ballard did say that he would do whatever it takes to get "THE GUY".

Whether or not Ballard thinks any of the current crop of QB's is "THE GUY" is largely unknown.

Local reporters don’t like it but the leaks have seemed to dry up this off season. Good thing because it seemed ppl had a bead on who we liked before. but they may have no idea who we are looking at now.

I’m not sure. Wonder who the Texans will like. Young has incredible poise for a QB. Burrow like poise. Too bad he’s so tiny. I just don’t think that 2024 1st round should be on the table. Too valuable. It could be Caleb Williams or MH Jr. I wouldn’t trade it.

I'm basing my valuation on two things: 1) The Chargers trade with the Giants in 2004, which most closely reflects the current situation the Colts face. The Giants gave up the 4th pick, their 3rd round pick, their next year's 1, and their next year's 5. 2) I'm pricing in a bit of a bidding war. The Texans probably don't want the Colts to jump them, so they're incentivized to make it harder for the Colts to move up. If we were dealing with only draft capital, I would fully expect a trade to cost this year's 1, next year's 1, this year's 3, and at least a Day 2 pick next year.

So why Taylor and Leonard? Seems like too much to give, right?

With Taylor, the Colts are facing a pending contract with an elite player at a non-premium position. Is Taylor worth a 4/72 deal with half of it guaranteed? Probably. Is it worth it to commit that much in resources to the RB position? I have my doubts. Why not make that the Bears' problem? They definitely get an elite player, which is why they're sacrificing value equivalent to a 1st round pick to get him, but now they have to deal with extending him and the potential consequences thereof.

So what about Leonard? Well, the Colts are now at least one and possibly two defensive schemes removed from the scheme in which Shaquille Leonard was an All-Pro. Where does that scheme reside now? Chicago, conveniently enough. Further, the Colts found a revelation in Zaire Franklin this year, who provides a high enough level of play that the impact of Leonard's departure would be diminished. Finally, moving him would move a large contract off the books and eliminate the uncertainty of what his return from injury will look like. Are the Bears getting good value giving up what I would consider to be the equivalent of a 2nd round pick to get Leonard? Absolutely, but the Colts are mitigating their risk and keeping their draft capital in house, which IMO with a rookie QB and a brand new head coach, is paramount to the success of the franchise moving forward.

Is it a trade that could look terrible in 5 years? Sure, but the same could be said for trading the Bears picks that end up being something like Will Anderson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and two other starting caliber players. Either way, the trade will only look bad if the QB they draft is a bust. IMO it doesn't matter who they gave up if the guy they draft is the next franchise QB.

Do you think Chiefs fans care that the Bills got Tre'Davious White, Dion Dawkins, and Tremaine Edmunds as a result of the Patrick Mahomes trade? Should we consider the Chiefs to have lost that trade? I think the answer to both of those questions is no.

If you have a clear QB1 and your options are trade next year's 1 or let Houston get him, what do you do? I trade next year's 1.

I’m not opposed to Stroud I was saying Levi’s only trying to predict irsay

Stroud definitely has the better resume but now alot of teams are looking for QBs all of a sudden so this is gonna get interesting

I’m sure Frank Reich would love to jump ahead of us and take the Qb irsay wants

Well the thing is, unless all of the teams agree that none of these guys is "THE GUY"... it's going to be more expensive than it should be for this crop. Even if you don't get ahead of HOU, you still need to outbid stay right behind them. Sucks if these guys are all as iffy as everyone thinks.

Best case seems to me to be if Dam is right and Stroud is a stud worth the price. Because Young is little and Levis gives me Wentz flashbacks, both of whom will give me a heart attack 20 times a game. But really I have no idea this year.

The only two guys in this draft that have shown enough to believe they have the high upside of a franchise QB with minimal bust downside risk are Stroud and Young. Picking between those two, Young carries an extra risk of size as a concern. Stroud does not have that concern. Ultimately I'd be elated with Stroud, satisfied but concerned with Young, and know that we've seen the last of Ballard with Levis or Richardson. Bust potential is through the roof for Levis and Richardson.

Not when that pick could be a better QB next year. I would put Williams and Maye above both these guys. Then you have a host of other QBs with potential that could rise into the top five. I would stay put or deal around that 2024 1st. Even if you hit on your QB that pick could be worth a lot in trade material. And it’s no guarantee that is their QB 1. As I said each of these guys has positive and negative traits. Staying put, the very worst scenario here is they get a cornerstone defensive player.

Besides when was the last time three QBs went in the top three? I think it will be like 2020 draft ultimately.

I don’t know if we have a clear favorite bc we will still need the head coach’s and offensive staff’s input. I’m sure extensive profiles are being drawn up on all four of the guys.

Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind. Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.

Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.

Drafting a qb is a crap shoot, just like getting the correct coach. Nobody has any idea who will be great,if anyone, with this class of qbs. Unless it is someone like Elway, Manning or Luck a lot will have to do with the players and system we put around him. None of these guys seem like they are anything special. I hope we stay put and take whomever falls to us and build a decent coaching staff and line around him. Mostly I hope we get lucky

No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.

As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.

As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.

All that said, my point was more that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the shiny new toys right now. They're being talked about now the way CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were being talked about this time last year. Prospect fatigue is real, and you can expect it to set in with anyone, especially QBs. People start finding negative things about them just to stop having to talk about them. Don't be surprised if at this time next year, we're talking about the high risk, non-franchise QB prospects that are Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but don't worry, the shiny new toys of the 2025 draft class will save us all.

Regarding Ballard's evaluation style, he does value traits and athleticism at most positions, but when he's drafting high, he tends to take players that have the film to match the traits they display on the field. If he was going to draft an Anthony Richardson type, he'd do it in Round 2 or 3, not in the top 5 of the draft. Furthermore, we can look at the 2 QBs Ballard has drafted to get some insight as to what he values at the position, Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. Eason had a cannon arm, good accuracy and ball placement, not much athleticism, even less pocket presence, and needed to learn how to throw a touch pass. Ehlinger had a noodle arm, great short and intermediate accuracy, good athleticism, decent pocket presence, and knew how to vary the speed of the balls that his limited arm could throw. These were also developmental QBs drafted in the 4th and 6th rounds, respectively, but what I can gather from it is Ballard definitely values accuracy and ball placement, he probably values arm strength a bit higher than he does athleticism, but I also think he values pocket presence and the ability to escape and make a play pretty highly, because he only drafted Eason in Round 4 despite publicly saying he had a higher grade on him, and he drafted Ehlinger, who most had as undraftable that year. Stroud and Young are pretty even in all of those categories, which is where you get to the physical traits, and Stroud wins out because he's a legitimate 6'3" and Young is an illegitimate 6'0" (I'd be more surprised if his measurement came in at 6'0" than if his measurement came in at 5'9"). I could be completely wrong, but I'd be shocked if the Colts have any interest in any QB that isn't Stroud or Young. Will we hear a lot that that is the case? Probably, but this is draft season. If Ballard said the sky was blue and water was wet, I'd check the veracity of both statements until April 30.

I’ll say the recent path of success in college and showing up in big games, Lawrence, Tua, Hurts, and Burrow seems to be a strong sign of success at the next level so Stroud is on that path… now the question is will he be there at 4? And does Irsay love him or does he want the blue collar gritty guy Levis?

Stating that the jury it still out on Hurts is by far one of the dumbest statements ever posted on this board. In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him. It's probably an even dumber statement than you still claiming that the Jagoffs drafting Trevor Lawrence was some giant mistake.

Mayfield and Murray are going to struggle in the NFL b/c of their size (which is why most of us don't want the Colts to draft Young), especially Murray. And to be fair to Mayfield, he's had more success than either of Ryan Day's QBs in the NFL, who are Haskins and Fields. Joe Burrow isn't a Ryan Day QB. He spent 1 season as a backup with Day as his OC. If we're handing out NFL success kudos to QBs college coaches then credit for Burrow needs to go to Ed Orgeron and Steve Ensminger.

Devil's advocate:

Colin Kaepernick was also in his 2nd season starting, 3rd season overall when he led a loaded 49ers team to 12-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl. He got figured out and was 11-24 after that.

Not saying Hurts will follow suit, but interesting.

No kidding. At that point I'd rather just see them draft Levis or Anthony Richardson. Not that I prefer those two over Stroud or Young, but I would prefer either of them over giving up the farm for Stroud or Young.

I bet he would, but the Panthers would have to give up quite the bundle of assets to move up that far. Especially if it's to 1. The Bears dropping to 4 at least gives them a pretty legit shot at one of the two best defenders in the draft. The Bears dropping to 8 doesn't.

That's a reasonable hypothetical to throw out there. I don't think it will happen to Hurts, but players do regress and/or sometimes unable to adjust when the league adapts to them like Kaepernick.

But that's not what Dam is saying. Dam is saying that Hurts really isn't any good and the only reason why he's having any success is b/c of the talent around him. The thing is though for QBs to succeed in the NFL they have to have talent around them, especially early on. Using Dam's logic the only reason why Burrow has been so successful is b/c the Bungles are absolutely loaded at receiver, and I can go on and on w/ the examples of this included Peyton.

The only QB who it could be even argued had a more talented receiver room backing him up than Hurts is Tua Tagovailoa, and while WR1 and WR2 are a dead heat between those teams, I'd take the Eagles 3-5 on the strength of Zach Pascal alone. Then they had an elite when healthy RB and TE who for the first or second time in their careers were healthy for most if not all of the season. I'm not confident all those factors align again for Hurts, and without them, I'd expect him to regress back to 2021 form.

If the Colts play this offseason right, they will put Lawrence and the Jaguars in the rearview for the next decade and expose Lawrence for the fraud he is. He's getting by on athleticism right now, but he still can't make a full field read, or an anticipation throw. Even an offensive genius like Doug Pederson can't hide that forever, and smart teams will always exploit it. I'll believe Lawrence will be anything more than an NFL footnote when I see him consistently make full field reads. The invented criticism of Stroud that he only does well in the structure of the offense applies in reverse to Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence does his best work when the play breaks down and he's playing backyard scramble drill football. He can't operate within the structure of the offense currently, unless the structure of the offense is incredibly simplified for an NFL offense.

Ah, so your criticism of Caleb Williams will be his lack of height, since he's 6'1" same as Mayfield. Fair enough.

You should look at Fields's 2022 again, especially if you truly believe Jalen Hurts is an elite MVP caliber QB rather than a lucky fluke. Also bear in mind, 2022 Fields didn't have a tenth of the supporting cast that 2021 Hurts did, let alone 2022 Hurts.

And as for Haskins, nobody but the Commanders thought Haskins would be a quality NFL starter, and they deluded themselves into it as badly as the Vikings deluded themselves into believing Christian Ponder could be the guy.

That was mostly tongue in cheek, I think Ryan Day's developmental ability for QBs should primarily be judged by the success of Fields and Stroud over the next 5 years.

Kaepernick is actually a very intriguing comparison for Hurts, and a great illustration of what I was trying to say.

Why? I gave a very detailed explanation of why I chose Taylor and Leonard, and I honestly believe it to be savvy roster building, divesting of large investments in assets at non-premium positions, keeping all future draft capital in house, and allowing for roster and cap flexibility moving forward. An example of this would be that trading Leonard would give the Colts the cap room to retain Bobby Okereke, who is otherwise almost certain to walk in free agency. Okereke would give you about 80% of Leonard's production at about 50% of the price. In comparison to Matt Miller's trade, it's a lot of value to give up, but in comparison to even Brett Kollman's trade, it's a better value for the Colts.

Which is exactly what I was saying, making it odd that you agreed with that poster, but disagreed with me.

You clearly misunderstood my point. I don't think Hurts is a bad QB, I think he's about league average, and that with normal injury luck instead of the incredible, statistics defying injury luck the Eagles had this year, would put him in that tier instead of the elite tier people want to ascribe to him.

There's also a key difference in Burrow and Manning vs. Hurts in terms of the talent around them, especially at WR. Manning made his WRs. Marvin Harrison was talented before Manning, but never would've reached the elite heights he did without Manning. Reggie Wayne looked like a bust in his first two seasons, Manning worked with him and turned him into a Hall of famer. For Burrow, I'd make a similar argument. Ja'Marr Chase and Burrow came into their own together at LSU before being reunited in the NFL. Tee Higgins was a rookie in the same year as Burrow, and they've developed together. Tyler Boyd was good before Burrow, and has still had success in a diminished role due to the emergence of Chase and Higgins.

Hurts, on the other hand, had little to nothing to do with the development of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown was traded for in this year's draft and has lived up to the $100 million contract extension he received to this point. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman as a WR because he was so good and was drafted 6th overall in his draft. He came in and was productive from Day 1, and he and Hurts never worked together until they were in the NFL.

One can easily argue the Bungles WR room is just as good. Chase is an absolute stud and one of the top WRs in the league. He'd be doing well no matter where he was. Higgins is a top WR2 and more like a 1B, and Boyd is one of the top WR3s in the league. The Bungles also have a very good RB room and have had a decent pass catching TE these past 2 years.

I'm not trying to say that Hurts is better than Burrow. We all know Burrow is better. Just trying to point out that you can make the talent around them argument about a lot of QBs in the league.

I wish you were right about Lawrence, but you're just not. He threw for 66%, 4,100 yds, and 25/8 td/int ratio. He also ran for 330 yds and 2 TDs. He's obviously doing a lot right and not this colossal bust that you seem to think he is (and probably the only person on the planet who does). Who do you think the Jagoffs should have taken instead of Lawrence? I seem to remember you liked Zach Wilson a lot. Now that would have been a huge mistake we all would have loved the Jagoffs to have made.

Maybe. Williams is certainly more athletic and from what I've seen has a better arm than Mayfield. So I don't think his size will be as much of a problem, but it could be. I didn't mention it before, but Mayfield is a head case (as is Murray). So that probably has just as much to do w/ his lack of success as his height.


Fields stats for '22: 60%, 2,242 yds, 17/11 td/ints. He also ran for 420 yds and 2 TDs. Thank god we don't have to play against him twice a year and get to play against that turd Lawrence instead!!

If you're going to debit Caleb Williams b/c of guys like Murray and Mayfield then you need to debit Stroud for Haskins.

This is fair. TBH I don't think you should count a player's college or HC against him at any rate, which is the point I was trying to originally make.

Maybe that's what you were trying to say, but it's not what you said. You lumped in Hurts w/ a bunch of underachieving QBs and a guy who will probably end up as an UDFA. Then said that (paraphrasing) all of Hurts' success is due to the talent around him and the jury is still out on him. Also, I didn't actually agree with Chaos Theory; in fact I said that I don't think that would happen to Hurts.

You certainly make it sound like you think he's a bad QB, and that he has so much talent around him that anyone would have success in Philly. I obviously disagree with that. For the record I don't think Hurts among the ultra elite QBs in the league, but I do think he's definitely top 10 and maybe as high as 5th when you consider what he can do with his legs.

Burrow and Manning are better QBs than Hurts, but make no mistake they have/had a lot of talent around them. The point I was trying to make is that any successful QB will have to have talent around them, especially early on. Again, you make it seem like the Eagles could plug in anyone at QB and they'd perform at an MVP level, and that's not the case.

Nah, they’re universally agreed upon as better picks. Even if it isn’t a QB, it will likely be a high pick and the number of QBs will drive other talent down in the draft. I wouldn’t trade it.

I never said a QB could succeed in a vacuum, but like I was saying in my last post, is the QB making the talent or is the talent making the QB? Burrow made his WR room, Hurts and Tua were bought theirs.

It's year 2, there's no way to definitively tell who is right or wrong. All we can do is continue to watch. Sure, you can point to his stats this season, and they look convincing, but his statline isn't telling the whole story. Example, he was 27/42 for 318 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INTs vs. the Cowboys in a comeback victory. According to many articles, this was Trevor Lawrence's "coming out party", and he'd "arrived as a star". It actually concerned me that he did so well in a win against a good team, so I went and watched the game, and saw the same old Trevor Lawrence. His TDs came half on broken plays where he used his athleticism to buy time for his #2 WR Zay Jones to burn Dallas's #2 CB, who is terrible, and half on short fields courtesy of turnovers forced by the defense where most of the work was done by the running game and Lawrence got a cheap TD on a half field read. He also had an INT, a fumble that would've cost them the game against any other team, and a huge amount of luck on the final drive of regulation to get the game to OT when he threw a pass that nfl.com saw fit to put as a highlight titled "Lawrence's pass unbelievably goes through defender's hands on crucial completion", which was the ball he threw to Zay Jones to get them into FG range to go to OT. By the way, did he and the offense close that game out in OT? Nope! Rayshawn Jenkins had a 52 yard pick six to deliver the win. You know you're a fraud when you're "coming out party" is basically your defense dominating Dak Prescott and you're just lucky to have not cost your team the game with 2 turnovers on your final 2 drives.

I did like Zach Wilson a lot, and I graded him in a vacuum that did not include interviews with him, and not knowing his landing spot. With Wilson, I've concluded that the New York Jets is where QB talent goes to die. I also thought that Wilson was a QB who needed a team that would sit him for a year, like the Chiefs did with Mahomes, and really needed to be developed in a similar manner to Mahomes, which of course the Jets didn't do.

I don't know that Peyton Manning would've been a successful NFL QB had he declared for the draft in 1997, because he would've been a Jet at that point, and that franchise seems to be able to kill any level of QB talent.

My point was every QB who isn't a 1 year wonder has detractors that see some "major red flag" that may or may not be there. Even Andrew Luck, who was the best QB prospect since sliced bread (or John Elway), had detractors that said RG3 was better. I had Luck as slightly better than that Wisconsin QB that had transferred from NC State that year.

Lamar Jackson 2019: 66.1% completion rate 3,127 passing yards 36 TDs 6 INTs

That's good, but MVP good? Why did he win MVP? OH, THAT'S RIGHT, just like 2022 Fields above, we forgot to add on the rushing stats

Lamar Jackson 2019: 66.1% completion rate 3,127 passing yards 36 pass TDs 6 INT 176 carries 1,206 rushing yards 7 rush TDs

Now it makes a lot more sense why Lamar won MVP in 2019. Let's look at 2022 Justin Fields in that context:

Justin Fields 2022: 60.4% completion rate 2,242 yards 17 pass TDs 11 INT 160 carries 1143 rushing yards 8 rush TDs

Fields, out of necessity due to having one of the worst offensive lines in the league and no real supporting cast to speak of, became a Lamar Jackson style QB last year, and was very good at it. I look forward to seeing what he can do with not the worst offensive unit in the NFL around him.

As for Lawrence vs. Fields, would've taken Fields at the time, still would take Fields.

Do I? Haskins is really more of the last Urban Meyer QB, he clearly preferred to take athletes and stick them at QB, they only halfway successful NFL QB he ever had was Alex Smith. That was why Burrow transferred, he was buried on the depth chart due to Urban Meyer's preferences. I shudder to think what Ryan Day could've done with him.

It's a data point, like anything else. It's not going to make the evaluation, probably not going to break the evaluation. It seems to be what the people who say "(insert school here) doesn't produce good QBs" are trying to capture. That said, if Urban Meyer came back to College Football and suddenly had a QB who was being touted as a potential top draft pick, the fact that Meyer has had 1 marginally successful NFL QB in almost 20 years would give me a lot of cause to look closely at that player's film.


I didn't lump Hurts in with anyone, google "Lincoln Riley QBs" and you'll get that list.

You agreed that his point was valid while saying mine wasn't. That was the confusing part.

He may be that high this year, but I still think with normal injury luck instead of lottery winning level injury luck, Hurts would be in the 15-20 range of starting QBs in the NFL. It wouldn't take much regression to the mean to see that result.

I don't think the Eagles could plug anyone in at QB an get MVP level performance, but I do think that there will be at least 10 and probably more like 15 better NFL QBs than Jalen Hurts in 2023.

That's a absolutely ricockulous statement. Tyler Boyd had 2 1,000 yard receiving seasons w/ Andy Dalton throwing him the ball. The fact that he's now WR3 for the Bungles shows how good Chase and Higgins are.

So in other words despite having a damn good 2nd year, Lawrence still has plenty of room to improve upon. That's a scary thought for the other teams in the AFC South.

Yeah, blame the Jets. I suppose you think it's the Chargers fault that Ryan Leaf didn't pan out and the Raiders fault that JeMarcus Russell didn't work out either



Don't disagree there.

I did post Fields' rushing stats, but I stated his '21 rushing stats instead of his '22. Sorry, was multi-tasking and misread the chart. That is a very impressive rushing stat. Of course so are Hurts' rushing stats: 784 yds and 10 TDs in '21 and 760 yds and 13 TDs in '22. Not sure why you don't think so, but I'm guessing it's b/c it doesn't fit your agenda.

You're smoking crack and probably the only person on the planet who would make that decision.

Maybe not. Would have thought Day had a lot to do with Haskins development and the decision, but I suppose it could have been all on Meyer. Also, not important to our discussion, but I think the case with Burrow was more that the light turned on big time between his junior and senior years at LSU. His stats as a junior at LSU at least support this.

That's fair. I can't disagree with anything you state here.


You guys said different things. I'm not sure why you can't understand that.

I suppose we'll have to see. I'm having a really hard time seeing 10 QBs who I would put money on having a better year than Hurts next year much less 15. I'd be interested in seeing your list of who you predict will be.

I've lost track of this pissing contest, but here's my take: (just fucking with Norm)

Chase and Higgins were both largely developed by Joe Burrow. Sure, Boyd was there, but like you said, Chase and Higgins are better.

Sure, that's one way to look at it. Nice try at spinning it into a positive for Lawrence, by the way.

I look at it as these are the exact same things he's had "room to improve" on since he burst onto the scene by beating Alabama as a freshman at Clemson. He has shown literally zero improvement on those things in the intervening five years. Why would it suddenly happen in his third year in the NFL?

By the way, if he ever does show that improvement, I will admit I was wrong. I was wrong about Herbert coming out, he didn't look like nearly as accurate of a QB as what he has become.

Is there a reason I shouldn't blame the Jets? They're the ones who threw him into the fire when he needed a year to develop. Does he not have the best public face? Sure, neither does Aaron Rodgers. If Mahomes didn't sit behind Smith his first year, do you think he'd be who he is today?

As for JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf, those were clear failures on the part of NFL personnel departments who wanted so badly for the physical gifts to translate that they ignored the clear work ethic red flags of both players. I've not heard anything similar about Zach Wilson. There were no rumors of a poor work ethic around him leading up to the draft, and based on Jacob Eason's pre-draft coverage, if that stuff exists, it probably will get out.

What does Hurts's rushing have to do with Justin Fields? Again, never said Hurts was a bad QB, just not elite (top 5 in NFL) or MVP level (top 3 in NFL) going forward. Again, I'd go league average. Justin Fields is someone I could see surpassing Hurts in the next 2-3 years.

The only person on the planet who would've drafted Michael Jordan over Hakeem Olajuwon would've looked pretty smart in hindsight.

So would the only guy on the planet who would've drafted Russell Wilson over RGIII, which I'm fairly certain was me.

I think it's clear that Day and his former boss have different things they value from the QB position.

10 QBs that will be better than Hurts in 2023? Let's do this in tiers.

Definitely
Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert

Maybe
Lamar Jackson
DeShaun Watson
Tua Tagovailoa
Brock Purdy
Matthew Stafford
Kyler Murray
Dak Prescott
Daniel Jones
Aaron Rodgers
Jared Goff

That's not counting Fields, Stroud, or Young, all of whom I could see surpassing him within 2 years, or guys like Russell Wilson or Derek Carr, who looked much worse this year, but are bounceback candidates based on regression to the mean alone.