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-   -   So....thoughts of trading up for the #1 pick? (http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=157400)

Ironshaft 01-08-2023 05:27 PM

So....thoughts of trading up for the #1 pick?
 
Chicago has their "franchise" QB in Justin Fields. 2 more years on the rookie contract plus the possibility of the 5th year option as a former 1st round pick.

Colts will have anywhere from the 3rd (if both DEN and ARI lose) to the 5th pick of the 2023 NFL draft.

How much would it take to trade up to #1 overall in order to take the QB of their choice?

Or, really, what would you be willing to trade for the chance to pick #1 overall?

nate505 01-08-2023 05:37 PM

Is there much of a difference between the top 3 to trade up for, or if you're the Colts do you just pick the best remaining out of Young/Stroud/Levis.

Racehorse 01-08-2023 05:37 PM

I haven't gotten the values memorized, but I would trade our first and the second from Washington to move up.

ukcolt 01-08-2023 05:40 PM

We don't have a second rounder from Washington, it's a third round pick, Wentz didn't fulfil his end of the playing deal!

IndyNorm 01-08-2023 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 257208)
I haven't gotten the values memorized, but I would trade our first and the second from Washington to move up.

Unfortunately we're only going to get a 3rd from Wash b/c of Wentz both sucking and getting hurt.

Brylok 01-08-2023 06:00 PM

I have no idea what's going on in the Colts organization anymore. There's zero identity and zero leadership. They're just adrift.

Brylok 01-08-2023 06:03 PM

I think we're in a worse spot than most people think. I hope not though.

Dam8610 01-08-2023 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ironshaft (Post 257193)
Chicago has their "franchise" QB in Justin Fields. 2 more years on the rookie contract plus the possibility of the 5th year option as a former 1st round pick.

Colts will have anywhere from the 3rd (if both DEN and ARI lose) to the 5th pick of the 2023 NFL draft.

How much would it take to trade up to #1 overall in order to take the QB of their choice?

Or, really, what would you be willing to trade for the chance to pick #1 overall?

About what the Giants traded for Rivers. That should get it done. Obviously less would be better. But now that the Texans aren't the #1 pick, getting the #1 pick should be the only priority of the offseason.

Dam8610 01-08-2023 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nate505 (Post 257207)
Is there much of a difference between the top 3 to trade up for, or if you're the Colts do you just pick the best remaining out of Young/Stroud/Levis.

Huge difference. Stroud has all the tools of a franchise QB with the size to make it work in the NFL. Young has all the tools of a franchise QB but may be too short. Levis has huge bust potential with limited upside.

Stroud>Young>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lev is

Lov2fish 01-08-2023 06:41 PM

I would not add any additional picks to move up in this draft for any of the 3 potential top QB's. They all have a higher risk of bust than franchise QB. Trading future stock is stupid for any of those three.

ChaosTheory 01-08-2023 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257228)
About what the Giants traded for Rivers. That should get it done. Obviously less would be better. But now that the Texans aren't the #1 pick, getting the #1 pick should be the only priority of the offseason.

Looked it up. So that would be trading 2022 1st rounders with CHI, plus a 2022 3rd, and our 1st + 5th in 2023.

Of course, in 2004, NYG's 1st was the #4 overall and another franchise QB.

WaynesWorld87 01-08-2023 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257229)
Huge difference. Stroud has all the tools of a franchise QB with the size to make it work in the NFL. Young has all the tools of a franchise QB but may be too short. Levis has huge bust potential with limited upside.

Stroud>Young>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lev is

This. While I'm not fully sold on either of Stroud or Young as being franchise-changing QBs, they're definitely a tier/notch above Levis in this year's class.

We know the Bears and Cardinals won't draft a QB. The wildcard is the Seahawks...are they ok with Geno Smith as their QB going forward?

Keeping a very close eye on this Broncos/Chargers game. Really need the Broncos to win. That slots us in at #4 and should guarantee us one of Stroud or Young. A quick, cursory Google searching of mocks seem to have Young as the first QB off the board right now and the majority of the ones I viewed had the Seahawks taking a defensive player, not a QB.

ChaosTheory 01-08-2023 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WaynesWorld87 (Post 257251)
This. While I'm not fully sold on either of Stroud or Young as being franchise-changing QBs, they're definitely a tier/notch above Levis in this year's class.

We know the Bears and Cardinals won't draft a QB. The wildcard is the Seahawks...are they ok with Geno Smith as their QB going forward?

Keeping a very close eye on this Broncos/Chargers game. Really need the Broncos to win. That slots us in at #4 and should guarantee us one of Stroud or Young. A quick, cursory Google searching of mocks seem to have Young as the first QB off the board right now and the majority of the ones I viewed had the Seahawks taking a defensive player, not a QB.

Geno had a good year but he's 32 and tons of missed games.

It's looking like the Broncos are going to help us out. LAC pulling starters, too. We should have the #4 overall with CHI and ARZ not needing a QB.

Almost everyone has Young #1, Stroud #2.

ChaosTheory 01-08-2023 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory (Post 257258)
Geno had a good year but he's 32 and tons of missed games.

It's looking like the Broncos are going to help us out. LAC pulling starters, too. We should have the #4 overall with CHI and ARZ not needing a QB.

Almost everyone has Young #1, Stroud #2.

Or I spoke too soon and the Broncos are going to blow it. 3 point lead now.

Spike 01-08-2023 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory (Post 257259)
Or I spoke too soon and the Broncos are going to blow it. 3 point lead now.

Broncos won.

ChaosTheory 01-08-2023 08:31 PM

Whew. So we have the #4 pick locked up.

Dam8610 01-08-2023 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory (Post 257258)
Geno had a good year but he's 32 and tons of missed games.

It's looking like the Broncos are going to help us out. LAC pulling starters, too. We should have the #4 overall with CHI and ARZ not needing a QB.

Almost everyone has Young #1, Stroud #2.

I'd comp Young to Russell Wilson and Stroud to Aaron Rodgers. Between that and the height is why I want Stroud.

omahacolt 01-08-2023 08:50 PM

hell no to trading up.


just sit tight and take whatever qb is there. unless the gm doesn't like him.

Dewey 5 01-08-2023 08:55 PM

Holder said he fully expects that Ballard will be back from everything he's heard. We're screwed.

Lov2fish 01-08-2023 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dewey 5 (Post 257270)
Holder said he fully expects that Ballard will be back from everything he's heard. We're screwed.

That means we get Carr and a right guard in the draft

Oldcolt 01-08-2023 08:59 PM

Not crazy about trading up. Most of the time you lose out. To state the obvious we need to come out of this draft with a starting QB. I am not saying we have to draft one, but you just cannot have a repeat of this crap. We are in a shitty situation with people at the controls that I can only pray get lucky. I have zero faith that they do it with talent.

TheMugwump 01-08-2023 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257268)
I'd comp Young to Russell Wilson and Stroud to Aaron Rodgers. Between that and the height is why I want Stroud.

You are out of your blooming mind.

Both these guys are more likely to bust than hit.

Not comping them, but it's like the 2018 draft. Baker, Darnold, Allen, Josh Rosen. Four of the top ten picks. Three lemons, one diamond. You want to be the guy who trades up for Stroud or Young, only to have Levis turn out to be Josh Allen, and not Ryan Leaf (not saying he is Allen-like, only that more top of the draft QB's bust than hit.)

I mean Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, Jarod Goff and Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield and Darnold, Kyler Murray (maybe the best of this list, but still not really showing he's a franchise guy). 2020 was an exception with Joe Burrow, Tua, and Herbert all living up to/exceeding their pre-draft hype.

And to comp those two to Wilson (unless you mean this year's Wilson), and Aaron Freaking Rodgers, is insane.

And anyone who thinks it is a good idea to trade up to get one should be fired from their GM position immediately.

Lov2fish 01-08-2023 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257268)
I'd comp Young to Russell Wilson and Stroud to Aaron Rodgers. Between that and the height is why I want Stroud.

Stop comparing Stroud to Rogers, they don't correlate. When the pocket collapses Rogers doesn't shit the bed. When pressure is in his face Rogers completes more than 40% of his passes. Stroud only completes 40% of his passes under pressure. Just a hint, but in the NFL you are under constant pressure and the pocket doesn't hold up indefinitely.

Stroud is not a plug and play franchise QB. Just stop it, its asinine.

WaynesWorld87 01-08-2023 09:05 PM

So we're #4.

Bears - Will Anderson
Texans - Young or Stroud
Cardinals - Myles Murphy or Jalen Carter ??
Colts - Young or Stroud

I'm still not sold on either Stroud or Young being "can't miss" type of QB prospects, but they're both better and provide more promise than anything else we've had in quite some time. I think I'd prefer Stroud over Young, but with it feeling like both have more bust than boom potential, I'm not sure it really matters.

Will be interesting since it appears both will be drafted to the same division which will create even more intrigue with all of this for the next several years.

Hoopsdoc 01-08-2023 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WaynesWorld87 (Post 257287)
So we're #4.

Bears - Will Anderson
Texans - Young or Stroud
Cardinals - Myles Murphy or Jalen Carter ??
Colts - Young or Stroud

I'm still not sold on either Stroud or Young being "can't miss" type of QB prospects, but they're both better and provide more promise than anything else we've had in quite some time. I think I'd prefer Stroud over Young, but with it feeling like both have more bust than boom potential, I'm not sure it really matters.

Will be interesting since it appears both will be drafted to the same division which will create even more intrigue with all of this for the next several years.

I think there’s a decent chance that either the Bears or Cardinals will trade back.

So it’s not as simple as the Colts are at number 4 so they’ll get one of the 2 top quarterbacks.

Also, Arizona will fire their coach and who knows if the new coach will be on board with Murray. He may want his own guy.

ChaosTheory 01-08-2023 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WaynesWorld87 (Post 257287)
So we're #4.

Bears - Will Anderson
Texans - Young or Stroud
Cardinals - Myles Murphy or Jalen Carter ??
Colts - Young or Stroud

I'm still not sold on either Stroud or Young being "can't miss" type of QB prospects, but they're both better and provide more promise than anything else we've had in quite some time. I think I'd prefer Stroud over Young, but with it feeling like both have more bust than boom potential, I'm not sure it really matters.

Will be interesting since it appears both will be drafted to the same division which will create even more intrigue with all of this for the next several years.

If there were no such thing as trades, that all lines up. And they likely take Stroud/Young. And maybe they really like one or both of these kids and really make sure they get one...

BUT... There sure seems to be a lot of uncertainty with these kids. And consider that our GM has a known philosophy of A.) not reaching with draft picks, B.) not paying "A" prices (including draft capital) for "B" players, and C.) he clearly values trading back and accumulating picks.

On top of all that... realize that there is a slew of QB-needy teams lined up right behind us:

#5 SEA
#6 DET (maybe)
#7 LV
#8 ATL
#9 CAR

These teams might like these kids a lot more than us. And further, they might be willing to make one of these ludicrous trades to move up and get one. In that case, I really wouldn't be surprised if we sit tight and take BPA.

I mean, shit, I actually don't know if I would be surprised if Ballard is the one that trades out of #4 for a bunch of picks.

Dewey 5 01-08-2023 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoopsdoc (Post 257289)
I think there’s a decent chance that either the Bears or Cardinals will trade back.

So it’s not as simple as the Colts are at number 4 so they’ll get one of the 2 top quarterbacks.

Also, Arizona will fire their coach and who knows if the new coach will be on board with Murray. He may want his own guy.

I think they are stuck with Murray. He signed a new contract before the season.

Dam8610 01-08-2023 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMugwump (Post 257285)
You are out of your blooming mind.

Both these guys are more likely to bust than hit.

Not comping them, but it's like the 2018 draft. Baker, Darnold, Allen, Josh Rosen. Four of the top ten picks. Three lemons, one diamond. You want to be the guy who trades up for Stroud or Young, only to have Levis turn out to be Josh Allen, and not Ryan Leaf (not saying he is Allen-like, only that more top of the draft QB's bust than hit.)

I mean Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, Jarod Goff and Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield and Darnold, Kyler Murray (maybe the best of this list, but still not really showing he's a franchise guy). 2020 was an exception with Joe Burrow, Tua, and Herbert all living up to/exceeding their pre-draft hype.

And to comp those two to Wilson (unless you mean this year's Wilson), and Aaron Freaking Rodgers, is insane.

And anyone who thinks it is a good idea to trade up to get one should be fired from their GM position immediately.

Obviously those are ceiling comps. I don't think Young is guaranteed to come in and be Russell Wilson, nor do I think Stroud is guaranteed to come in and be Aaron Rodgers. I just think that, if they hit their ceilings, those will be the QBs whose play style resembles theirs the most.

Also, of course drafting a franchise QB is a gamble, always is, always will be, but it's a gamble you HAVE to take if you want to be successful in the NFL. You HAVE to draft one and HAVE to hit on him to be a successful franchise. That's just how it works. No way to avoid that in the modern NFL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lov2fish (Post 257286)
Stop comparing Stroud to Rogers, they don't correlate. When the pocket collapses Rogers doesn't shit the bed. When pressure is in his face Rogers completes more than 40% of his passes. Stroud only completes 40% of his passes under pressure. Just a hint, but in the NFL you are under constant pressure and the pocket doesn't hold up indefinitely.

Stroud is not a plug and play franchise QB. Just stop it, its asinine.

I haven't seen this concern you keep bringing up. In fact in the Georgia game he stood in against pressure and made a lot of good throws, and escaped pressure often. Further, the other 5 games I watched of him outside of watching the Georgia game live showed me his ability to escape pressure, roll left or right, keep his eyes downfield, and create plays on the run. That's what led me to the Rodgers comp, because he was the only other QB I could think of who did that with such consistency. So unless you have a game to establish this "folds under pressure" claim you have, I'll just agree to disagree with you on that point, as there is no evidence of it, and quite a bit of evidence of the opposite.

IndyNorm 01-08-2023 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lov2fish (Post 257273)
That means we get Carr and a right guard in the draft

Don't forget at least 1 if not 2 DE projects who didn't produce in college but have "great traits" :cool:

IndyNorm 01-08-2023 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory (Post 257294)
If there were no such thing as trades, that all lines up. And they likely take Stroud/Young. And maybe they really like one or both of these kids and really make sure they get one...

BUT... There sure seems to be a lot of uncertainty with these kids. And consider that our GM has a known philosophy of A.) not reaching with draft picks, B.) not paying "A" prices (including draft capital) for "B" players, and C.) he clearly values trading back and accumulating picks.

On top of all that... realize that there is a slew of QB-needy teams lined up right behind us:

#5 SEA
#6 DET (maybe)
#7 LV
#8 ATL
#9 CAR

These teams might like these kids a lot more than us. And further, they might be willing to make one of these ludicrous trades to move up and get one. In that case, I really wouldn't be surprised if we sit tight and take BPA.

I mean, shit, I actually don't know if I would be surprised if Ballard is the one that trades out of #4 for a bunch of picks.

You're probably right that if we want Young or Stroud we will likely have to trade up to get him b/c the Bears will likely trade down to a team that will draft one of the 2 with Houston choosing the other. If we're good w/ taking Levis then we can stay put I think. At least as things stand now, but a lot can change between now and draft day.

Dam8610 01-08-2023 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndyNorm (Post 257299)
You're probably right that if we want Young or Stroud we will likely have to trade up to get him b/c the Bears will likely trade down to a team that will draft one of the 2 with Houston choosing the other. If we're good w/ taking Levis then we can stay put I think. At least as things stand now, but a lot can change between now and draft day.

The Colts are the team in the best position to make that jump trade, and should secure that pick and get their choice of the two ASAP.

CletusPyle 01-08-2023 10:02 PM

Will Levis with OSU's OL and receivers > CJ Stroud

The more I see of both Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett the more I like them, both will likely be there in the 3rd round if the Colts decide to pass on the top 5 QBs, but you have to believe one of the 5 is going to be great, but which one?

Dam8610 01-08-2023 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CletusPyle (Post 257303)
Will Levis with OSU's OL and receivers > CJ Stroud

The more I see of both Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett the more I like them, both will likely be there in the 3rd round if the Colts decide to pass on the top 5 QBs, but you have to believe one of the 5 is going to be great, but which one?

Stroud's LT gave up pressure constantly. Stroud also put up more points in the second half against the best defense in college football (13) than they gave up on average for the entire season against the best conference in football (12.8). That, of course, was after he lost his best WR, RB, and TE.

I think people have prospect fatigue with Young and Stroud. Watch them play, you'll see why people think they are franchise QBs. I don't see it with Levis.

Also, you're crazy if you think Stetson Bennett will be a franchise NFL QB. He's too old, he'll be like 26 as a rookie, that's supposed to be right about when NFL QBs start their prime.

apballin 01-09-2023 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257309)
Stroud's LT gave up pressure constantly. Stroud also put up more points in the second half against the best defense in college football (13) than they gave up on average for the entire season against the best conference in football (12.8). That, of course, was after he lost his best WR, RB, and TE.

I think people have prospect fatigue with Young and Stroud. Watch them play, you'll see why people think they are franchise QBs. I don't see it with Levis.

Also, you're crazy if you think Stetson Bennett will be a franchise NFL QB. He's too old, he'll be like 26 as a rookie, that's supposed to be right about when NFL QBs start their prime.

See I think people are overrating that Georgia game. Stroud plays with a clean pocket majority of the time. After Harrison got injured he didn’t do shit. He beat 2 ranked opponents all year. Levis reminds me of Big Ben, gritty gutsy tough athletic dude with a big arm

Dam8610 01-09-2023 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apballin (Post 257322)
See I think people are overrating that Georgia game. Stroud plays with a clean pocket majority of the time. After Harrison got injured he didn’t do shit. He beat 2 ranked opponents all year. Levis reminds me of Big Ben, gritty gutsy tough athletic dude with a big arm

Wow, you're reaching quite a bit here. "He was up against the best defense in college football and didn't have his top WR, RB, or TE, but it's not THAT impressive that he put up in one half what that defense gave up per game on the season." Really? How is that not impressive? He also got them in position to win the game BY DOING THE THING EVERYONE SAID HE WOULDN'T DO! Not his fault the kicker missed.

Racehorse 01-09-2023 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 257269)
hell no to trading up.


just sit tight and take whatever qb is there. unless the gm doesn't like him.

I mostly agree, but if we do trade up, I would not give the farm.

apballin 01-09-2023 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257332)
Wow, you're reaching quite a bit here. "He was up against the best defense in college football and didn't have his top WR, RB, or TE, but it's not THAT impressive that he put up in one half what that defense gave up per game on the season." Really? How is that not impressive? He also got them in position to win the game BY DOING THE THING EVERYONE SAID HE WOULDN'T DO! Not his fault the kicker missed.

How’d he do against Michigan? He doesn’t do well vs pressure and that will not be the case in the NFL. He’s not gonna be able to stand behind a wall and throw to wide open guys. Again he beat …. 2 ranked opponents all year… 2. I look at the entire body of work not just 1 game

JAFF 01-09-2023 09:33 AM

No.

How many Qb playing right now were the first pick in the draft? Right now the 49ners have the last pick in the draft playing like a first rounder. Drew Brees went in the second round.

Im not suggesting the Colts go dumpster diving. They need help in several places. It will cost multiple players/picks to move up 1 or 2 spots. Is there a Brees in this draft? Trade down and gain more picks, while drafting a smart guy who has some flaws later in the first round?

CletusPyle 01-09-2023 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257309)
Stroud's LT gave up pressure constantly. Stroud also put up more points in the second half against the best defense in college football (13) than they gave up on average for the entire season against the best conference in football (12.8). That, of course, was after he lost his best WR, RB, and TE.

I think people have prospect fatigue with Young and Stroud. Watch them play, you'll see why people think they are franchise QBs. I don't see it with Levis.

Also, you're crazy if you think Stetson Bennett will be a franchise NFL QB. He's too old, he'll be like 26 as a rookie, that's supposed to be right about when NFL QBs start their prime.

OSU had the 4th ranked OL in college football, UK had the 33rd and that was generous! Stroud does not impress me that much in fact, I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Texans took Levis!

I wasn't suggesting that Bennett would be a permanent answer, but he is a winner and you play him next season and with a much stronger QB class next season maybe get your franchise guy and Bennett stays on as your #2? No way I would trade up for Stroud or Young, if Ballard does that he is a complete fool!

YDFL Commish 01-09-2023 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 257309)
Stroud's LT gave up pressure constantly. Stroud also put up more points in the second half against the best defense in college football (13) than they gave up on average for the entire season against the best conference in football (12.8). That, of course, was after he lost his best WR, RB, and TE.

I think people have prospect fatigue with Young and Stroud. Watch them play, you'll see why people think they are franchise QBs. I don't see it with Levis.

Also, you're crazy if you think Stetson Bennett will be a franchise NFL QB. He's too old, he'll be like 26 as a rookie, that's supposed to be right about when NFL QBs start their prime.


Aren't you the one who said Mac Jones was going to be better than Trevor Lawrence? How has that worked out?


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