2020 with Philip Rivers, 2021 with TBD ...... the Unenviable Dilemma of Chris Ballard
 

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In my rat's ass of an opinion, Chris Ballard has backed up what he asserted several years ago when he first took the job as GM of the Colts ...... he has built a complete team, as opposed to just a team that was extremely dependent on a great QB (such as Peyton Manning and/or Andrew Luck) that would be shit out of luck should that player go down with an injury (for the most extreme example of this, see the Colts' 2011 Manningless/Luckless season in which they went 2-14. For slightly less acute examples of this, see the 2015 Colts with Matt Hasselbeck and the 2017 Colts with Jacoby Brissett.)

I liked the signing of Philip Rivers, and I consider the 2020 season to have been a successful one for the Colts (both for Rivers as an individual, and for the Colts as a team.) I think that they showed that they were very capable of beating the elites of the league when they defeated the Packers in the regular season, and when they just barely lost to the Bills in the post-season. A slightly-past-his-prime Philip Rivers was still good more often than not, and I think that it was abundantly clear that a 39-year-old Rivers was still significantly better than a prime Jacoby Brissett.


All of that said, with the retirement of Philip Rivers, Ballard now faces one of the biggest decisions of his tenure as the team's GM ...... how to put a starting quarterback on the field for the 2021 season who will be at least as good (preferably a little better) as was a 39 year-old Philip Rivers in 2020. I don't envy his dilemma. I would have been OK with acquiring Matthew Stafford. I am not OK with Sam Darnold. I am on the fence about Carson Wentz. My opinion plus 13 dollars will get you a one-way ticket from Brewster, NY to Grand Central Station. My opinion plus 35 dollars will get you a Dwight Freeney jersey on eBay. Stay tuned for the decision that will be made by our GM, who so far has proven to be every bit the franchise builder that he asserted he would be when he first came on board in January of 2017.

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Is Carson Wentz the Best QB Option for the Super Bowl-Hungry Colts?

(By Mike Wells)

https://www.espn.com/blog/indianapol...l-hungry-colts

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I agree - Ballard has backed up his words in making the team more than the QB. The real question is - was it a smart move without a QB in place? It’s not that difficult to get where the Colts are now. What is difficult is finding a SuperBowl caliber QB once the rest of your roster is good. Definitely an unenviable position to be in.

Ballard has made some brilliant decisions since coming here. However, he did not (nor could anyone) anticipate the Andrew Luck sudden retirement. He structured a team with a solid player at QB and who knows how they would have done this past year if Luck were still here. I won't fault any of his moves so far, and I only hope he can get some sort of really quality QB play this coming year to go along with this solid, young team.

Let me be clear - I’m not faulting Ballard. You don’t have to blame him to deal with reality. The Colts are in the same position a lot teams find themselves in. Last off season he chose to continue building the roster instead of solving the QB issue. That’s fine. It’s not an easy issue to address and may take more than one offseason. I said last year that if he didn’t see his future QB in the that draft he should push the the #2s to this year (they typically bring a #1) to have more trade ammo to move up for his guy in this draft. That obviously has consequences. So does not having a QB. We’ll see how he handles it this offseason.

My only point is that any team building a roster that doesn’t prioritize the QB position is taking a risk. I like Ballard, he’s made some great moves. But he’s also going into his 5th offseason and the team has no QB, no LT, huge questions at edge rusher, and no playoff wins. So I’m not going to suck his dick. It’s not entirely his fault, but if at some point he doesn’t realize QB is not just another position then all his other work likely won’t matter at all. That’s simply reality.

We beat Houston in the playoffs last yr

Not really seeing it the way you do on the QB issue. Luck retired unexpectedly, so year one post-Luck he's forced to go with a wild card - Brissett - and quickly brought in an experienced backup (Hoyer). Not surprisingly, things didn't click.

Year two, he brings in Rivers, an older but certainly above average QB, on a one-year deal. He resists Rivers' overtures for a two-year deal, presumably because he think better options may become available and doesn't want to be locked in to Rivers for more than one year. He also uses a mid-level pick on a highly rated but project QB (Eason) - giving the Colts at least a year to see what he can do, and also providing a potential low-cost replacement for the expensive Brissett as a backup QB.

Now we are in year three post-Luck, and I don't think anyone outside the organization really knows what his QB plan is, but he's said quite clearly in interviews that he understands the importance of the QB position but won't be pressured into making the wrong move. I believe him - he's held firm on his vision so far despite howls of protest at times, while demonstrating that he's not afraid to make a decisive move if the opportunity presents itself (Buckner). He's also put the Colts in a good position via the cap to make such a move.

Whether that move is Wentz, Darnold, Trubisky or someone else, I don't know. I really don't think it will be a draftee though. We will have an experienced QB at the helm when the season starts. And whoever it is, given Ballard's demonstrated restraint, I'll be fairly confident that he's been vetted thoroughly and is likely to succeed.

You are correct (year before) - my mistake.

If Ballard keeps kicking the can (QB) down the road, by the time he figures it out, he might have to start the rebuild over again!! Thanks A...........

Chaka, I don’t really dispute anything you’ve said. I just question if continuing the vet approach at QB is the right approach. I understand that going the rookie route is risky and probably expensive. However, rotating through reclamation projects has costs as well. I want them to identify their guy and go get him. I don’t see QB as a position where you keep plugging in reclamation projects until one sticks. We will see where he goes with it.

But I’ll be clear again - I like and support Ballard. I just don’t believe he’s beyond questioning in this area.

Come on man. Dumb. Its not his 5th season with no QB. Luck nuked his plan two years ago. First season there wasn’t enough time to effectively replace Luck. Year two he got a vet who knows the system in the middle of a global pandemic and didnt kill the teams future. Overall rivers did well then retired. He also drafted a potential QB either starter or back up and continues the search.

What fantastic long term QB should he have gotten over the last couple years? They dont just come available. We would have exploded he he gave up what the rams did for stafford. No one seems to really want wentz or darnold.

If you think he doesn’t know the QB is uber important then you are dense. I dont care what he has said in the past, but Luck was a huge reason he took the colts GM job. He knows but his plan hit a huge landmine a couple years in. Teams go decades without finding their franchise QB. Lets hope he can do it quicker than that.


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2020 with Philip Rivers, 2021 with TBD ...... the Unenviable Dilemma of Chris Ballard
 

Again, what long term franchise QB should he have acquired or who should he get for this coming season?


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seriously, whats up with all that criticism?
Because Ballard did not immediately replace Luck with the next great franchise QB, that means he's not prioritizing the position? Literal nonsense.

Who the fuck said it was?

[/QUOTE] Teams go decades without finding their franchise QB. Lets hope he can do it quicker than that. [/QUOTE]

No fucking shit? What’s the long term outlook for those teams? Sounds like that is exactly what the fuck I am saying. I’m not criticizing him for not having found one, I’m questioning how much all the other great shit he does without one will matter. That’s fucking it. But because I’m not bowing down and sucking his dick you guys get your panties all fucking twisted. I’ve repeatedly said I like Ballard. Repeatedly said I don’t envy his position. But yes I must be dense because I don’t believe he values a QB to the same degree I do. Which is fine. We’ll see how it plays out.

I fucking said last year what I think he should have done if he didn’t think one of the QBs was worth going after - push draft capital into the future to help move up for a QB this year. They went a different route. I didn’t say it was stupid. I’m not throwing a fucking fit. I would have went a different way. Apparently that’s too much criticism. Jesus fucking Christ.

All the criticism? Jesus you guys are unbelievable. My bad - every move Ballard has ever made is the absolute bestest move ever made by a GM! Is that fucking better?

It doesn’t matter how much I’ve said I like Ballard the fact I’m concerned about his QB search means you guys lose your ability to read.

Yeah, I hear you. Ultimately you have to play the cards you're dealt though. In this sense, Ballard is a victim of his own success, since he's otherwise built a quality roster. So even without a high-end QB I suspect we're going to perform well enough to always be drafting at the back end of the first round. Given this fact, he has three choices: (1) go the free agent/trade route, (2) take a flyer on a late first round QB and wait for him to develop, or (3) mortgage the future to trade up for a high first round QB pick.

The free agent/trade route seems the most logical to me in light of our current roster. We have the cap room to take on a large contract and someone like Wentz seems like a natural fit assuming Reich is on board. We'd have him locked up for four years, but we'd only be committed for two. In the meantime, the Colts can continue to work with Eason, perhaps elevating him to a backup, or if he's not working out take another mid-round lottery pick to develop. I just don't see the Colts going the draft route unless its in conjunction with the separate signing/acquiring of a quality veteran QB.

You did.

Then said something implying not prioritizing the QB. Its not like he has plethora of choices. Lets see what he does. I suspect a trade up in the draft, but what the hell do I know!?

Again I would have bit the bullet and traded up last year if I liked one of the guys (yes paying the price) or I would have moved draft capital into this year to go get my guy. Or I would do that this year for next year. It isn’t about who I think it should be, it’s about who THEY think it should be. If their answer is “the best bet we can get cheaply” then I disagree with the prioritization of the position. It’s not about not having solved it. It’s that so far it appears (based on theirs words and known actions) that their method for solving it isn’t aggressive enough in my view. I believe a franchise QB is the single most important part of winning SBs in the NFL. If you disagree fine. If you think Wentz or Darnold or Dalton are the answer fine. But simply thinking whatever Ballard did was the only bestest option is fucking stupid.

And I’ll repeat for like the 4th fucking time - I’m not calling for Ballard to be fired. I’m not complaining he hasn’t solved the situation in a year. I’ve repeatedly said I like him. I simply would prefer to roll the dice on whoever they think the guy is - not just take what doesn’t cost much.

The fuck I did. I pointed out how long Ballard has been in charge in reference to the team not having a known long term solution at ANY of the 3 (in my view) most important positions. I don’t blame Ballard for not having a franchise QB. I have concerns with what it appears his method is. There is a significant difference.

If you suspect a trade up in the draft then Ballard would have done exactly what I want him to do - identify his guy and go get him. My ever so slight criticism stems from the assumption they won’t pay the price. It is admittedly an assumption, but one based on Ballard’s words (this year), his actions (last year), and the current rumors on Wentz.

Ballard has done a good job overall. The talent has improved on the team with an emphasis on the lines. But we have yet to find a pass rusher and a CB. That’s on him. He is spot gapping with vets and it’s working. But if his primary building method is the draft, gotta hit on those picks or pony up and sign a free agent fix. Pass rush has been an issue on this team for awhile and corner play has been spotty. WR needs to improve, hopefully the young guys develop.

LT is new, we knew Castonzo was going to retire soon. But drafting a tackle high is a luxury for us with so many needs. No team has good oline depth as we saw what happened to the last two teams the Bucs faced.

QB is not his fault initially. But this is the second whole offseason, and upcoming third season of looking for a QB. He will have to solve the question somehow. We also had the 13 pick last year. Everybody loves Buckner, but was it ever considered to use that pick to address QB?

Right now I see this team as good, but not good enough. Really two years ago we were a few plays away from having a better record, but this year we made those few influential plays and made the playoffs. A couple Houston mistakes and we make it in this year.

If you want to call Ballard the best or one of the best in the league, then he needs to be able to face up to big boy criticism. Can’t just praise every win and excuse every miss. Unless you want to be a homer. This is what he is paid for.

I absolutely agree with the description of “victim of his own success.” That’s basically the thought behind my small initial comment to this thread. It is not unusual for teams to get here and then falter. It becomes increasingly more difficult to find the guy after you are drafting late and then when guys start getting paid there is also less financial maneuverability. Personally I’d rather be in Jacksonville’s situation than the Colts long term. A franchise guy covers up a lot of sins. And I’d really love to see Ballard building around a franchise QB. I’m just concerned that won’t happen because the things that make Ballard successful are going to make it even tougher on him to acquire that guy, IMO. But we will see.

Ok


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Well stated


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Ok, Rereading the whole thread I can see how it may appear that way. That wasn’t my intent. I apologize - I should have clarified. The immediate “oh my god god, he’s attacking Ballard” reaction some do on hear drives me nuts. Guys are either great or shit - no room for in between.

Regardless, no I’m in no way suggesting Ballard has had 5 years to fix the QB situation. I’m well aware Lucks retirement screwed Ballard completely. But for all Ballard’s good, he’s not a god and not above questioning. For as good as he’s done this team is still missing some extremely important pieces and I don’t think what he has built in 4-5 years means he is above question or criticism. That’s probably a better way to say what I was getting at.

It is obvious that we are still missing important pieces and I agree Ballard has ultimate responsibility. I would be irritated with him if I could figure out what moves he missed this last year. After Luck retired like he did, when he did in relation to the start of the season, Jacoby was really the only option. Last year we could have kept our draft pick and used it to move up and get one of the QB's that were available. I doubt that any of us want to trade Buckner for any of those guys, not just yet anyway. Which brings us to now. I am not a rah rah guy for Ballard but I don't see how he could have realistically done better. Now this off season may be a different story. If Stafford leads the Rams to the promised land and we let him slip away then Ballard better not screw up with who is left, and hope he didn't let the best QB slip away. Personally I see nothing to criticize him for as far as our QB situation is concerned. He has put himself in a situation, however, where I think he is at the end of his rope. He needs to figure this our this year, this off season.

No need to apologize, this is just a fan site. I think sometimes people just have unrealistic expectations on how easy it is to acquire a franchise quarterback


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The reason I’m concerned is because of how difficult I believe it is. And how little I believe the rest matters without one.

Teams go decades without finding their franchise QB. Lets hope he can do it quicker than that. [/QUOTE]

No fucking shit? What’s the long term outlook for those teams? Sounds like that is exactly what the fuck I am saying. I’m not criticizing him for not having found one, I’m questioning how much all the other great shit he does without one will matter. That’s fucking it. But because I’m not bowing down and sucking his dick you guys get your panties all fucking twisted. I’ve repeatedly said I like Ballard. Repeatedly said I don’t envy his position. But yes I must be dense because I don’t believe he values a QB to the same degree I do. Which is fine. We’ll see how it plays out.

I fucking said last year what I think he should have done if he didn’t think one of the QBs was worth going after - push draft capital into the future to help move up for a QB this year. They went a different route. I didn’t say it was stupid. I’m not throwing a fucking fit. I would have went a different way. Apparently that’s too much criticism. Jesus fucking Christ.[/QUOTE]

Kind of looks that way with this post.

With our first pick already traded. trading the second would have left us with very little draft capital, and Taylor would not be a Colt.

I think the rest totally matters. Alternate theory is to use your resources to build a solid foundation as you are looking for your QB. As was mentioned in another post, the last two teams the bucs beat had line issues and their QBs were essentially a non factor. Both those QBs are considered two of the best in the league currently.

I liked the thought of stafford but not at the price he went for. Not excited about wentz or darnold unless we could get them on the cheap. If ballard doesnt use our #1 or move up for who he thinks will be a longterm QB solution this year then draft a LT or DE difference maker and roll with eason or a journeyman for a year. I dont want to see a piecemeal approach to the QB either but dumping a ton of resources into the wrong guy is not a good solution.


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True on both counts. But the first is also going to be true if they ever trade up regardless of the year. The second sucks but a QB is simply more valuable.

When I say it doesn’t matter I only mean that chances are slim that they’ll win a SB if they don’t find a franchise QB regardless of how strong the rest of the roster is. I definitely agree that a strong roster helps a QB. I’m not disputing that at all.

The options suck, Ballard has basically said that himself. I’m fine pushing it another year if he doesn’t like the current options. Same as I said last year. But I’d like to see a plan beyond seeing what happens. Like where I previously suggested pushing draft capital in to the next year.

Just going to throw my own worthless opinion in here.

I acknowledge the importance of having a franchise QB to the success of the team, but I got so sick and tired of Peyton having to cover for an average to below average O-line (sorry, but truth), a crappy run defense, and for the most part, a below average secondary that I'm happy to see the team go the other route for several years and build an incredibly strong, and hopefully deep, team in all the other areas while they tinker, and hope, and use their strong scouting team to find a good to great QB to maybe do only slightly better than game manage.

Probably not the way to a Super Bowl win, but you never know. Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Joe Flacco have all won in the last few decades, so it's not impossible. And yeah, they all had incredible defenses, but that's my point. There is another route.

And Peyton was an all-timer, one of the five best, if not the best, ever. And he won one ring in Indy. What are the odds that we get anyone even close to as good as he was? And if we do, at what cost to the rest of the roster?

So, yeah, I'm on the Sam Darnold, or Carson Wentz, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, or even, if necessary, Jameis Winston bandwagon. Use that first rounder to grab the best OT or DE available. Shore up the back end of the defense with some more solid draft picks (the track record shows we can depend on at least two or three new starters from this draft). Roll with the average guy who they might be able to coach up.

I think even with QB being the "most important position in sports", there are other routes to the top.

Also interesting to me Ballard said he values the players opinion, so if they had their choice wonder who they would tell Ballard to go after? Or do they still believe in Jacoby?

Assuming they don't get Wentz or one of the other top QB's.... If they can get JB on a contract like Washington got Heinicke on at 8.75 for 2 years or even 10 for two would be a no brainer to me Sign him and get the BPA in the draft at 21 hopefully a defensive player IMO since I don't see any of the worthy QB's falling to 21 range. In FA go after pass rush and corner. AJ Bouye and Richard Sherman are both available to go alongside Rhodes

Unless of course they do not see anything in Eason that tells them he is more than a backup.

IMHO if Brissett is the QB next year, the Colts would be taking 2 giant steps backwards.

Not saying as the starter, saying that they feel comfortable with Eason. JB may start the season and turn over to Eason

I think TheMugwump is channeling Ballard. This is essentially what he has been preaching, you need a good QB, not a great one, if you want to win the Super Bowl. I don't think Jacoby is a good QB over a year. For a game or two, yes-but over a year he gets to exposed.

I am also on the "average" QB train for the Colts in 2021.

I don't want us to trade away draft capital on players whom leadership does not believe has superstar potential (i.e. Buckner).

Ballard and staff are just too good at identifying players who become cornerstones of the franchise with those quality 1st/2nd/3rd/4th round picks. Those draft choices are just too valuable to not be in Ballard's hands.

So, IMO, I would rather use our quality draft picks to strengthen the team at almost any position besides: RB, Safety, Interior D-Line, Interior O-Line and special teams.

Then, I would rather use "big" free agency money to retain our studs (Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Walker, Autry/Muhammad most important IMO) and invest in positions with new veteran free agents like:

LT (Williams, Okung, Villanueva)
WR (Hilton, Robinson, Watkins, Perriman)
DE (Leonard Williams, Clowney, Ngakoue, Griffen, Houston, Okaor)
CB (Patrick Peterson, Mike Hilton, Michael Davis, Troy Hill)

Then, our QB would probably end up being one of: Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Dalton or Newton none of whom will be big money (probably each for $10m or less per year for 2 years).

The only exception that I would make to trading away a draft pick or two for a QB would be if the Raiders make Derek Carr available. I would not overpay for him but he is a guy whom i think would come much, much cheaper than Stafford or Watson but can propel a team to the Superbowl with sane coaching and team leadership around him (which the Raiders do not have).

I think guys often overlook the amount of turnover on NFL rosters. Here is a part of a post I made on a discussion on roster building a year or two ago:

This can be an argument for why a rookie QB doesn’t make sense as well I suppose. But to me it just highlights how fleeting the build an “entire roster” idea some are suggesting is. It simply can not stay together in the modern NFL. The only consistent way to win big is with a top level QB. To find one you usually have to either be bad, willing to pay (draft picks), or ridiculously lucky. We know Ballard doesn’t plan on the first one. I’m hoping they aren’t going with the last option. Would be a shame to waste a lot of the talent he has accumulated.