Colts Playoff Scenarios - Final Week
 

Hard to believe that we could end up 11-5 and miss the playoffs - particularly this year, with the extra playoff team - but at the moment we're on the outside looking in. The Pittsburgh loss really hurt. Now we need to beat JAX (we are presently 14 point favorites), and we need one loss among the following teams:

Titans (at Houston - no spread yet)
Ravens (at Cincy - Ravens favored by 11)
Browns (home vs. Steelers - Pitt favored by 6.5)
Dolphins (at Buffalo - no spread yet)

As an added bonus, if we win and the Titans lose, we win the division. With all of this in mind, ESPN give us a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ook-postseason

There's no way the Dolphins and Browns win next week. If DeShaun Watson can pull off a miracle against the Titans, even better.

Best case scenario, Colts, Ravens, Dolphins and Texans win. Will that take the Titans out of it?

Oh I’d love to get the Steelers again in round 1

I'd like to see this as the converse of 2005.
In week 12 2005 we beat the Steelers 26-7, but in the first round of the playoffs, well I don't have to remind you guys what happened.

This time, they got us late in the season. I want them in the playoffs so bad right now.

I would love that scenario. No playoffs and the worst pick of teams not in the playoffs. The weeping and gnashing of teeth would be fun to see.

My concern is that Pittsburgh and Buffalo have already clinched their divisions and a home playoff game, and since neither one is fighting for a bye, how much do they really have to play for next week? I guess it could be for a second home playoff game should they survive the first one. Maybe I'm missing something and haven't thought through the new playoff format fully.

The good news is that because our game is late next Sunday, we'll know the outcome of the Dolphins, Browns and Ravens games by the beginning of our game against JAX. The Tennessee game is at the same time as ours.

Yes, that would leave the Titans, at best, in a tie with the Browns for the last playoff spot, and the Browns own the head-to-head tiebreaker because they beat the Titans earlier this season.

By the way, to update my original post, the Titans have been installed as 7.5 point favorites over Houston, and Miami is presently a 4.5 point underdog to Buffalo.

Yes, they would be fighting for the #2 seed and a guaranteed 2nd home playoff game.

This year it's interesting to see if that would matter. I think it would for both teams as they play in cold weather areas and it advantages them better to play at home, but that's just a total guess. It could also be for more mundane reasons, that players would rather not travel and be at home in their own beds, so they would play hard to get that advantage.

I think the Steelers will play hard too, just because even with their win against the Colts I doubt they want to go into the playoffs with 4 losses out of their last 5 games.

All great points. Thanks.

I agree with this point especially. The 2nd half vs us is the only good football they've played in the last month, and I gotta think Tomlin wants to work on re-establishing the same level of play they had early in the season.

o


The Bengals and the Packers did everything that they possible could for the Colts this season ...... they lost to the Colts, and beat the Titans.

It often seems like all of the breaks go against your team, but that is largely because it is your team and your are (subsequently) biased. I mean, the New York Jets just beat the Browns, which was another big favor for the Colts. We need one more big favor from Deshaun Watson and company ...... but regardless of the outcome of that game, the Colts have had both good breaks and bad breaks this season (the worst of which was the COVID-affected game in the rematch against the Titans.)

o

Well, we might end up getting screwed here. Pittsburgh is resting its starters, so now they've been reduced to 10 point underdogs to Cleveland. The Buffalo-Miami game has been taken off the board temporarily, presumably while they await word on whether the Bills will also rest starters. If so, we'll need to hope for a big upset to get into the playoffs.

Mia now only a 1 point underdog.

I placed a moneyline parlay on Cle, Balt, Mia, Tenn. If the colts miss the playoffs, at least I get paid.

I think one of those teams will slip up, though.

A dream come true for you

Resting old man Roethlisburger will be more important.

With the Bills and Steelers resting key players, the Colts getting in the playoffs just might rest on the Texans beating the Titans,.............. can the Texans give the Colts another “ gift “?

I don’t feel good about it

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Neither do I, in fact I think they would rather screw us than help us.

Yea just because JJ Watt went off on his rant doesn’t mean his defensive teammates are gonna give a fuck about this last game

Interesting - what's the payoff if you "win"?

I'm surprised you can get a line on the Buff-Mia game as Buffalo still hasn't said whether they'll rest the starters. Here's an article where the author is suggesting they'll play everyone based upon a recent Josh Allen tweet, though personally I don't find Allen's statement to be all that clear on the subject:

https://thespun.com/nfl/afc-east/buf...an-for-week-17

Colts screwed themselves.

He is just a troll. He always wins when the Colts lose.

Haha - interesting idea though, if you paired it with a bet on the Colts victory as well (which DragonTails curiously did NOT do, further supporting your troll comment). I'd be curious as to what such a parlay would pay, since you'd basically be choosing a bunch of heavy favorites (Ind/Cle/Bal/Ten) and maybe one slight underdog (Mia).

By the way, here's another article which suggests that the Bills WILL rest starters on Sunday based upon McDermott's recent history:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills...8c8b16460.html

We also can't discount the possibility of some sort of hybrid approach, where Buffalo plays its starters but pulls them at some point midway through the game if Pittsburgh falls way behind in its game against Cleveland. Buffalo secures the No 2 seed with a win OR a Pittsburgh loss.

I fear the Colts are really going to get screwed here.

The screwing already happened last week in Pittsburgh.

haha. I am not a troll. The colts are too big of fav to put in the parlay.

Mia QB is out. Playoff chances are improved.


You should try my approach sometime if you have spare change. Last week's lost was tough but I felt slightly better knowing I made some cash.

I got odds at 2.5 to 1 on the moneyline parlay.

I set my expectations for the colts super low after so many years of playoff disappoints. I am still living of the enjoyment of 2006.

I started betting like this a long time ago after so many 1 and dones in the playoffs.

o

I'm not a gambler, but if I were, I have pondered that particular theory...... bet against your favorite team so that you win money if they lose, and you feel happy if they win.

I could never do that, though ........ taking money after watching the Colts, the Orioles, or the Bullets/Wizards losing games would feel like I just swam through a big cesspool for a few dollars.

o

It's amazing you stuck with the Orioles after Angelos ruined them for SOOO long.

o

The Bullets/Wizards went 23 years without winning a single playoff series, from 1982 and 2005.

Rooting for the Colts, the Orioles, and the Bullets/Wizards isn't a choice ...... I signed an emotional contract with my favorite sports teams when I was a little boy in 1971, and those contracts are lifetime pledges that are non-negotiable.

o

I’m a gambler and I have 1 rule, never bet against my team under any circumstances. I’d rather bet on them and lose because when they win and I win $$ it’s a hell a rush, One time I almost fought a co worker that claimed to be a colts fan and told me the next day after a colts loss he bet on the Titans.

True gamblers don’t have a favorite team they treat it like a business but you couldn’t give me a million dollars to bet against the colts

That is dumb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What’s dumb? Paying for a trip to Disney world off the $ I won when the Colts beat the raiders?

If your not a gambler you don’t understand

I did the same. Just be a small amount ($15), which is enough to buy Red Dead 2 if I win.

Personally I'll be more than happy to lose the $15, and would prefer it...unless the Colts lose against the Jags. That would be the worst of all worlds.

o

The Texans showed that they cared a lot about that last game. When the Titans went up by a score of 31-15 late in the 3rd quarter, I think that everybody (except for the Texans themselves) thought that it was over ...... unfortunately for us, they came up a tad short.

o

And you are the only happy one of the two of you.

Whatever we’re in I’ll take it, Titans can have the Ravens and all the pressure is on the Bills so I’m good with how it played out

So the Colts get the very first playoff game, 1:00 PM EST on Saturday.

Can't wait.

The weather forecast is no snow and a high of 27 degrees. I was hoping for a blizzard to roll through.

Yea like last time we were there and Gore put up 150