FWIW.

this was posted at 9 am this morning

https://twitter.com/ForTheCOLTure/st...669176320?s=20


So there was not a chance of them taking an OT or any other player today

You should be pissed off about Paye. He sucks. He's straight up athletic traits with no idea how to play DE, and he's not even the best player in this draft in that category. Oweh ran a 4.37 with a 1.59 10 split. His 3 cone time is 6.9 and his vert and broad are far superior to Paye. He didn't put up as many reps of 225. Neither Paye nor Oweh currently have any idea how pass rushing works. Oweh's way more likely to get it because he's longer, faster, and more explosive. It doesn't matter where a player is drafted, or how many were drafted at his position in front of him. To your point on QBs, Joe Montana wasn't even a first rounder and was the 4th QB taken in his class, he did pretty okay. You know who else was the 5th QB taken in their class? Dan Marino, he turned out pretty okay, too.

Ojulari has a rush plan on any given play and absolutely demolished the 17th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, go watch the game if you'd like. I don't care that his RAS is lower mostly because of his size and bench scores. I didn't, and still haven't, seen Paye's 3 cone time, because I can't find it anywhere, but I highly doubt it was better than Oweh's 6.9.

I don't understand the reluctance of teams to take OTs in this draft, but I am certain it is not a talent gap. This is the best OT class by far in some time.

That's so disappointing. How could they watch tape of him doing the patented Zach Allen "bull rush" over and over again and think "That guy is the only guy worth drafting at 21"? Have the Colts lost any scouts between this year and last?

Cool. I said Oweh was better at being a ball of traits with no production than Paye. Sounds like that fits exactly with what I said. Neither Oweh nor Paye currently knows how to pass rush. Oweh just has a bunch more traits that make him more likely to succeed at it. Namely he's longer, faster, and more explosive.

Kwity Payes 3 cone was 6.37 :cool:

Is that an official time? Because that sounds like a scout slipped and hit his stopwatch too early. For reference, Jacob Harris's 6.51 3 cone time put him at a 9.95 at the WR position for 3 cone times. 6.37 would be unheard of historically good for someone of Paye's size, and I would want to see something that could verify it to believe that. That's a top 1% 3 cone time at WR, DEs don't do that.

Has the guy who does frame analysis on drill times verified that time? That doesn't seem believable to me.

You're making my point Dam. There are a lot more quality OT's than there were/are edge rush. So if you don't take the edge when they are available then you're probably not getting one. BUT there will be plenty of OT's available because the class is deep.


And if you read what I posted earlier. Word was that the only player Ballard was interested in in round 1 was Paye. If he wasn't there they were trading back. Then the report came out that Paye was the #1 player on the Colts board.

This is really not that difficult.

What's difficult for me is how do you draft a pass rusher who doesn't know how to pass rush? And if you're going for the traits, why not get the guy with the 35 inch arms who is faster, quicker, and more explosive? That could be either of Turner or Oweh.

Dam. you do this every yr. Last yr you HATED the JT pick. You were wrong and I suspect you'll be wrong again this yr. But seriously every year you hate the picks.

Ballard really does know what he's doing. JSYK

I watch a lot of Chris Simms' unbuttoned podcasts, and he has been going through his player rankings the past month or so. He is really high on Kwity Paye and has him as his No. 2 edge guy and thought that he was a top 15 guy. He says he is not the guy who is likely to be the speed rusher causing huge problems on the outside for the offensive tackle. But he is the strongest upper body guy, and someone who disrupts almost every play. Sack production is not everything, sacks are hugely over rated in my opinion, if you have forced the QB to make a decision quicker than he originally wanted to, that is a win, as more often than not it will cause an incompletion, or at least a completion for less yards than it could have been. He will also be a guy who will hold up against the run and help tremendously against the likes of Derrick Henry and Najee Harris. I like Paye and think he will fit this defense perfectly. He replaces Autry's role in the defense last year.

When the NFL starts having a cone drill during the game, And then they start to have a track meet, some of those numbers might mean something

I'm not so sure that NO did, but Buffalo appears to have. Rousseau only played 1 year since he sat out this past year due to COVID, but damn did he produce in that one year: 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. Compare that to Paye who had 11.5 sacks and 23.5 TFL in his entire collegiate career. WTF Ballard? If we were going to draft an EDGE project then why not draft one who has proven he can produce at a high level??

Darrisaw was taken 2 picks after ours. Hopefully Paye works out, but most of us would be a lot happier if we had drafted a day 1 starter at LT rather than a project at EDGE with our 1st rounder.

It will be fun going back and reading this thread after he has a stand out year with our Defense.. Quit putting so much stock in Sacks... He was very disruptive. Like others have already said already.

I for one would have been !! The Colts now have 3 pojects/prospects to rush the passer, but no quality protector for Wentz's blindside, it will be a long year if they don't get one !

I certainly hope that you're right, and we'll obviously see how it goes. If I were to make a wager though, I'd definitely put my money on Rousseau being better.

A lot of people would have put money on other Linebackers being better than Leonard when Ballard drafted him.

Apples and oranges. Leonard was highly production in college, although against FCS competition:

He became one of the nation's most productive players, starting all 43 games in his collegiate career while racking up 394 tackles (54 for loss), 22 sacks, eight forced fumbles, six interceptions and 13 passes defensed. He was named the MEAC's defensive player of the year in 2016 and 2017.

http://hosted.stats.com/nfldraft/players.asp?id=235682

I love all the definitive statements about Paye and this draft so far. Is he polished, no-the Colts are never (hopefully) be in a position to draft a polished pass rusher, they go top 5. Dam hates his tape. Ballard loves it. One is wrong and it isn't Ballard. It is a numbers game. Sooner or later Ballard will hit on one of these athletic freaks. He played 4 games last year and got 2 sacks. He pressured the hell out of qb's and plays thru the entire play just like Nelson. His work effort and character are so good I saw a prediction he will eventually win the Walter Payton award. Love the pick this morning.

Defining better is often really hard, when teams play different systems and ask guys to perform different roles. Jerry Hughes did next to nothing for the Colts, but has had a tremendous career up in Buffalo. Some of that could be coaching of course, but much of it is how he is used, and the other talent that he has on defense to play alongside.

I think we are far more likely to find a pro bowl tackle in the 2nd round than we ever are a DE of similar stature in this current draft. There could be 3 or 4 guys at tackle with genuine potential to become pro bowlers, you might be lucky if there is one remaining DE.

That’s an excellent point. And I think it’s fair to assume that Ballard has more than one LT he would be comfortable taking tonight.

Good point. Determining who is better can be subjective depending on the situation. Not sure Jerry Hughes is the best example though since he was an absolute turd when he played for the Colts, lol.

I hope you're right on getting a tackle. We need to be able to protect Wentz, and what we currently have on the roster at the most important OL spot won't cut it. At least without sacrificing at LG.

Stampede blue does a good write up on Paye including a link to the 6.37 three cone. That was actually not counted in his RAS, his slower one was. But the video of the 3-cone is on there. Personally I like verticals jump as a better indicator of success. I think those big butts from squatting leads to a fast first step and it shows up in the verticals. He does have a high pressure rate and I think it was the highest in the class. Ballard must put a lot of stock in that because it was true with Lewis as well.

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/...2021-nfl-draft

My problem with a edge player in the draft was they all seemed like gambles in some way. And I like our first to be on the safer side. But this is a deep OT class, so I think we will get someone.

Watching Paye I think when he is just asked to run up field and penetrate he does that well. It seems he has some read responsibilities at Michigan. He will definitely need so technique work, but seems to have strong hands and can shed the OTs grab when he wants.

He does a lot of those quick short steps, I would like to see him take longer stride up field. You can coach that. Notice when he does that 6.37 3-cone he is taking long strides mostly.

The reason I suspect we didn’t take Darrisaw is there were rumors that he was lazy. If true (coaches and scouts would find that out) I would not want to put him next to Nelson.

I want to see them use Mathis to coach him up, and re-sign Justin Houston to mentor the kid. Ton of raw talent. I wanted LT but not at all mad about Paye. Just like everyone else hope he works out well. :cool:

You have to be careful with the pro-day results because all the areas are different. You need to be familiar with the environment. Like OSU has a fast surface. And Penn State’ track for 40’s is angled downhill slightly. Gil BrandT talked about getting in an argument with Parerno saying the penn state track was angled downhill. Paterno said it wasn’t true. So Brandt went and got a golf ball and put it at the starting point and the watched it roll downhill.

To add to what Norm said,

When I watched Leonard's tape, he was by far the best player on the field. There was no question about his ability vs. his peers. When I watch Michigan, this kid isn't usually the best player on the field. Sometimes he's not the best player on his own team.

If I was %100 accurate in all of my assessments and my evaluation of my own scouting skills, I would be getting paid to do it. I'm not.

We'll see how it goes.

And the only edge defender I actually liked was Phillips.

I think UKcolt's take is the most appropriate. Hopefully they find a solid contributor at T tonight.

To be honest, I didn't think Paye would fall to us, but I'm glad he did.

As mentioned before, Paye has only played in 23 1/2 games, so he's not going to be the most polished pass rusher. None of the pass rushers in this draft are polished anyway.

Still hoping for Eichenberg in the 2nd. He's not the most physically gifted and doesn't have the most upside, but he's a plug and play LT, who is most technically sound. He will start and play well from day 1.

Yep. And look at this. A lot of people said he was better than Leonard

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/...334298119?s=20

Back to Dam's favorite Ojulari.

Maybe Ballard knows more than us. I can admit it. Some can't though

https://www.si.com/college/georgia/n...ound-nfl-draft

Taylor fumbled away a key game just as I predicted he would. That said, the team had Rathman to fix his fumbling issues. Hopefully Paye comes in, works with Mathis, and becomes a force on the DL. I'm not discounting the possibility that it could happen, he's loaded with traits, that's his only positive. But this is why even the first round of the NFL draft has a 50% bust rate.

He has no rush plan and displays no rush moves. Never shows a push-pull, a cross chop, a dip and rip, a swim, a spin, nothing, he just runs into the OT and tries to push him back into the QB like Zach Allen did. And forget countermoves, he doesn't even have moves in the first place. And I know sack production isn't everything, but his 5 pressures didn't impress me much more than his 2 sacks, and you can fuck off with any PFF garbage stat that says he was better than that. I don't trust their subjective bullshit as far as I could throw Quenton Nelson.

Why did you type this out as a response to me when you're agreeing with my point? I must really live in your head rent free.

You sure Ballard loves his tape? I understand loving the traits, but not so much the tape. Also, please show me where and when he "pressured the hell out of QBs" without using PFF garbage numbers. 2 sacks and 5 pressures is not "pressured the hell out of QBs".

Seriously? Manning threw a pick six in the SB. Was he a bad pick?

Oh, the medicals I have no access to and therefore couldn't possibly know? Yeah, those make a difference.

Of course Manning was a great pick, but I could write a thesis on the countless ways the NFL fucked he and the Colts over in his tenure here, starting with how Tom Brady and Bill Belicheat should've been stripped from the record books and banned for life from the NFL upon the discovery of SpyGate.

Obviously you didn't listen to Ballards news conference. I counted three time him saying he loves his tape. Maybe he looks for different stuff than you do. I just want to say how happy I am you are not running this team. I do love your passion and how pissed you seem to get. You obviously care a lot. Enjoy the back and forth. Hope you are wrong, big time (I assume you hope the same thing). One thing you are not as concerned with as Ballard is is the dudes character, Ballard is sky high on his motor and character-two things that are integral to his way of thinking. Makes for a better team and experience rooting for them-no obvious douche bags.

Paye has both elite athletic talent and is an extremely hard worker with a relentless motor. Guys like that, baring injury history, tend to succeed.

Here ya go

https://twitter.com/Colts/status/138...380122130?s=20

Oweh didn't record any sacks last yr. But you say he's better


Paye.

you missed the key point where dam is consistently reminding us of how he predicted it.