I've been an advocate of trading for Darnold for some time now. I thought that ship had sailed once the Jets lost the Trevor Lawrence bowl. However, Darnold finished poorly and had the worst passer rating in the NFL. He threw more INTs than TDs. I still think there's hope for him, but I wouldn't give more than a 3rd or 4th round pick for him. If Justin Fields performs against Alabama anywhere near like he did against Clemson, the first two picks in the draft will be Lawrence and Fields and the Jets will pick the one that the Jags don't.

Yup Darnold is gone. Just how much someone wants to give up for him.

Justin Smith already showed me enough to be number 2. Plus the spoiled brat comments coming out about the BYU QB.

For those thinking about a Wentz trade, here's one of the practical obstacles:

https://www.profootballrumors.com/20...on-wentz-trade

I'll take Wentz, Pederson is a fucking hack who hasn't been worth a shit since Reich left. Look at what a POS he is based on last night's game. Pederson is a clueless bastard and he will soon be fired by the Eagles.

So they're going to keep him as a backup under current cap constraints? That seems like suicide as well. This may be the Eagles trying to create leverage for a potential trade, little else makes sense. Don't buy it, get Wentz for a 3.

I agree with this in principle however I think you’re being too kind in your choice of words.

Well, you're right that its sort of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. The problem is that they backloaded his contract, so 2019/2020 were the cap-friendly years, and now they're heading into the really bad part of the contract. They're scheduled to take a cap hit of $30M plus each of the next four years:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadel...n-wentz-18950/

Any effort to move him off the team will carry severe, immediate cap consequences - the impact of which would be magnified if the cap is reduced as expected next year. If they keep him on the team, I suppose they could restructure some of the deal (assumed he would agree) to spread the pain over a longer period, but they're going to need to pay the piper eventually.

After looking at the deal, I think a 3 is probably too much for him. I'm thinking a 6-7 rounder is more appropriate.

Thirty million cap hit for the next four years is to much of a gamble for me. I am actually thinking that any draft choice would be overpaying. At this price unless Reich/Ballard are absolutely positive that the issue was Pederson I would prefer to stay away

Why even bother taking that risk for a guy who looked like complete shit on the field and whose teams have done better when he's not playing? It's not even remotely worth that financial risk or giving up picks for.

I wouldn't touch that Wentz contract. I would rather go through the draft. That's a lot of gamble for a few good years and several bad.

The good news is that if the Colts acquired Wentz, they wouldn’t necessarily be on the hook for all that money. Like many backloaded contracts, the later years of Wentz’s contract (2023-2024) do not appear to be guaranteed and any existing cap impact from those years (i.e. prorated signing bonuses) would remain with Philly who paid the bonuses. Thus, the Colts would not be committed to anything for those years.

The main concern would be 2021 and 2022. As I read the contract info, his 2021 salary ($15.4M) and roster bonus ($10M) are guaranteed but not yet paid. That would be on the Colts. There’s also an unexplained 2021 “option” ($6M) which probably would need to be paid (unless Philly has already paid it), since it's highly unlikely the Colts would trade for him and then cut him before next season. So that’s $31.4M for 2021 (still less, however, than we paid Rivers/Brissett in 2020).

We’d probably be on the hook for most of 2022 as well, since $15M of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to the next (2021) season – again, we would not be cutting him before then. The rest of the 2022 salary ($7M) become guaranteed before the 2022 season, so we could get out of that if Wentz was absolutely terrible in 2021. He’s also got another $6M “option” in 2022, which may or may not need to be paid depending on its terms. So, by acquiring Wentz now, we’d be on the hook for at least $15M in 2022 if he doesn’t play for us that year, or $28M if he does.

All of this assumes, of course, that the info reported by Spotrac is accurate, and that the Colts do not attempt to renegotiate some of those terms. It is doubtful, however, that any renegotiation would reduce his guarantees, though it might push them to later/different years.

To much money. I'd rather find a way to acquire Stafford, he's 32, and hopefully would give the Colts 4-5 years of quality play while they try to find their next franchise QB. JMO tho.

The Colts would not get the Wentz contract the Eagles have, the Colts would get the Wentz contract stripped of all guarantees. All guarantees are paid pre-trade when a player is traded, that's why the Eagles would still have a $34 million dead cap hit to trade him. Once the guarantees are stripped, the Colts will essentially have a year to year contract with no guarantees, so they could keep the high cap hits OR restructure the deal with more guarantees and less overall money.

Unless there is some sort of golden parachute/poison pill-type term in Wentz's contract, this is not true. It's a contract, if they trade him to the Colts, the Colts would assume the terms of that contract.

Pretty sure Dam is right about the guaranteed not sure about the yr to yr part though

I think you guys might be confusing the rules relating to signing bonuses and contract guarantees. Although a signing bonus is paid at the time of a contract being signed, for salary cap purposes the bonus amount is divided equally over the entire term of the contract. However, if the player is traded or released before the end of the contract, the portions of the signing bonus allocated to future years are immediately telescoped into the present cap year.

Guarantees work a little differently. Contract guarantees are allocated to the year in which they are scheduled to be paid. If a player is traded, those unpaid guarantees travel with the player to the new team. If that player is cut or released instead, the team still must honor the future guarantees and those contract guarantee amounts are telescoped into the current cap year.

Last, but not least, there are non-guaranteed parts of the contract. As I’m sure everyone knows, those are extinguished without consequence if a player is cut, but until that time remain on the team’s books and are counted against their projected salary cap. If the player is traded, the new team steps into the shoes of the prior team and has the same right to honor these terms, or to cut/release the player with no obligation.

The different treatment of bonuses, contract guarantees, and non-guaranteed contract amounts (and all various permutations of each) are the building blocks for all of the financial engineering the players and teams do.

Per the NFL CBA:

(ii) Acceleration.

(1) For any player removed from the Team’s roster, or whose Contract is assigned to another Club via waivers or trade, on or before June 1 in any League Year prior to the Final League Year, or at any time during the Final League Year, any unamortized signing bonus amounts will be included in Team Salary for such League Year, except that for each League Year preceding the Final League Year, each Club may designate up to two Player Contracts that, if terminated (i) on or after the first day of that League Year; and (ii) on or prior to June 1 and if not renegotiated after the last regular season game of the prior League Year, shall be treated (except to the extent prescribed by Section 6(d)(iv) below) as if terminated on June 2, i.e., the Salary Cap charge for each such contract will remain in the Club’s Team Salary until June 2, at which time its Paragraph 5 Salary and any unearned LTBE incentives will no longer be counted and any unamortized signing bonus will be treated as set forth in Subsection (2) below. If acceleration puts a Team over the Salary Cap, the Team will have seven days to conform with the Salary Cap, but may not sign any players until there is Room to do so under the Salary Cap.

As seen above, guarantees on a player contract must be absorbed by the trading team. Thus, as previously stated, the Colts would have Wentz on a guarantee free contract, and could easily restructure it by offering him some guarantees instead of none. I'd be happy with only trading a 3 to get him, but certainly would take him for less.

Once again, per the NFL CBA:

(iii) Amounts Treated as Signing Bonuses.

For purposes of determining Team Salary under the foregoing, the term “signing bonus” shall include:

(1) Any amount specifically described in a Player Contract as a signing bonus;
(2) Any guaranteed reporting bonus;
(3) Any consideration, when paid, or guaranteed, for option years, contract extensions, contract modifications, or individually negotiated rights of first refusal;
(4) Any option exercise fee or bonus, subject to the rule set forth in Section 7(c) below, and any option buyout amount, when paid or guaranteed;
(5) The difference between the Salary in the second contract year and the first contract year when Salary in the second contract year is less than half the Salary called for in the first year of such Contract;
(6) Any reporting bonus in the season of signing when a contract is signed after the start of training camp;
(7) Any roster bonus in the season of signing when a contract is signed after the last preseason game;
(8) Any salary advance paid on a guaranteed basis;
(9) Any guaranteed bonus tied to workouts;
(10) Any salary advance which a player is not obligated to repay;
(11) Any amount of a Salary advance, offseason workout bonus, offseason roster bonus, or offseason reporting bonus that is guaranteed for skill, injury and Salary Cap terminations, on a non-contingent basis for all of the guarantees. (Notwithstanding Subsections (8)–(9) above, a Salary advance, offseason workout bonus, offseason roster bonus, or offseason reporting bonus that is guaranteed for skill, injury and Salary Cap terminations, but on a contingent basis for any of the potential guarantees, shall be included in Team Salary only in the League Year in which the bonus is earned by the player; e.g., in the case of an offseason roster bonus, in the League Year in which the player is required to be on the roster to earn the bonus. The rules set forth in this Subsection (11) shall not affect Salary Cap accounting for any other purpose.);
(12) In a Player Contract, or any renegotiation or extension of a Player Contract, that is executed in the Final League Year, each of the following, if it is to be earned or paid to the player in the season following the Final League Year: (a) any Salary advance which the player is not and cannot be obligated to repay; (b) any offseason workout bonus that is contingent upon the player’s participation in less than half of the Club’s offseason workout program; (c) any offseason roster bonus; and (d) any offseason reporting bonus;
(13) Any bonus to be paid to a player solely for fulfilling his obligations to play under his Player Contract without seeking to renegotiate and/or “holding out” (i.e., a “completion bonus”), and which bonus is otherwise guaranteed for skill and injury, except that the amount of any such completion bonus shall be calculated at its present value, computed using the Discount Rate. Further, if any event occurs which extinguishes the player’s right to receive such completion bonus, any amount of the bonus that has previously been included in Team Salary shall be immediately added to the Club’s Team Salary for the current League Year, if such event occurs prior to June 1, or for the next League Year, if such event occurs after such date, with the remainder of the bonus that has been allocated to Team Salary for future League Years immediately extinguished.

Wentz has $24 million of option bonuses and $20 million of roster bonuses in 2021-2024. The $24 million of option bonuses and $10 million roster bonus goes on to the Eagles' cap immediately upon a trade (that's the $34 million cap hit you spoke of earlier), making it a 4 year/$66 million deal for the Colts with 2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal. If the Colts only had to trade a 3 for him and Reich could coax 85% of 2017 Wentz out of him, they'd be stupid not to do it.

Yep that is what I read

Yep

Guys, maybe it’s just because it’s late, but you’re losing me here. You’ve cited a couple large chunks of CBA language, a hefty portion of which doesn't relate to our discussion, and you don’t highlight the precise portions you are relying upon. Nevertheless, I reviewed that language and I remain confused - how do the sections you’ve cited not say exactly what I’ve been telling you? Yes, in a trade scenario (or in a release scenario, for that matter) signing bonuses are telescoped into that cap year. In Wentz’s case, this would include the remaining prorated portion of his $16.3M signing bonus (~$9.8M) and the remaining prorated portion of his $30M option bonus ($24M). This is the $34M I spoke of. In your calculation of the $34M, it appears you excluded his (fully paid) signing bonus, but included his (unpaid) 2021 roster bonus for some reason. That’s the first issue I see.

Second, where does any of this say that a trade would deliver Wentz‘s contract to the Colts “stripped of all guarantees” as you stated in Post 93 above? That’s what throws me the most. Wentz’s contract includes a number of guarantees that you’re not mentioning – including his now fully vested and guaranteed 2021 salary ($15.4M) and roster bonus ($10M), and the unvested guarantees relating to his 2022 salary ($22M) and roster bonus ($5M). Are you suggesting that Wentz would somehow forfeit these if the Eagles decide to trade him? I think he’d file a lawsuit against his agent if this were the case. No, those guarantees would travel with Wentz to the Colts, and the Colts would assume responsibility for them (and all remaining contract terms) moving forward.

Third, I am lost in your calculations – how do you get to a 4-year / $66M remaining contract “with 2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”? I know you have a calculation in mind, but I just can’t figure out what it is. As I read it, between 2021-2024, Wentz is scheduled to receive about $78M in salary and another $20M in roster bonuses (all of the other money has already been paid), so that adds up to $98M, not $66M. And given your earlier statement that all guarantees get stripped from the contract after a trade, how could there still be “2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”?

Fourth, if the Eagles were responsible for all guarantees in Wentz’s contract upon a trade, the cap hit would be almost $60M, not $34M as you state – the same as an outright release. This would include the $34M mentioned above (for his signing bonus and option bonus), his 2021 fully guaranteed salary ($15.4M) and his 2021 fully guaranteed roster bonus ($10M). Again, this is not the case, and essentially highlights the distinction between the cap consequences upon release ($60M) and trade ($34M). Neither are good, but a trade is actually feasible and actually might save them a few bucks against their existing 2021 and 2022 cap totals (Remember, if he stays for the 2021 season, Wentz will count $34.6M against their cap AND by doing so they’ll trigger a $15M guarantee for 2022 as well).

Again, given the circumstances, I think the Eagles should have a very strong incentive to find a trade partner for Wentz, as they probably can't afford to cut him and while they'll feel pain no matter what in 2021, keeping him around will damage their 2022 cap as well. The acquiring team would be asked to take on a big cap number themselves too, along with the risk created by his recent poor performance. So a 6-7th rounder should be all that is necessary.

EDIT – I have learned since my original post is the “option” number mentioned in the contract payment chart is simply a prorated breakdown of a $30M “option bonus” provided to Wentz at the outset of the contract. This is money already in his pocket, but per the CBA rules you cited, is spread across the entire length of the contract for cap purposes.

I went on Spotrac to look again just now and saw the ~$9.8 million signing bonus in the second column. I don't know how I missed that the first time. Reassessing, I see that trading for Wentz would come with a 4 year/$98.4 million contract, and based on the "potential out" shown on spotrac, it's essentially a 1 year/$25.4 million contract with a 3 year club option at $73 million that the Colts can walk away from with no dead cap (the dead cap shown on Spotrac is the stuff that would get accelerated into 2021 upon a trade). So if the Colts decided to go this route, they'd effectively try him out for 1 year, and if it doesn't work out, walk away with no obligation and likely a high draft pick to secure their franchise QB of the future, and if it does, have their franchise QB on a bargain deal. That seems worth a 3 to me.

Your recalculated numbers are largely correct, with one significant exception. The Colts would not only take on his guaranteed $25.4 salary in 2021, but also would assume a minimum of $15M in salary under the 2022 cap because per Wentz’s contract this portion of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to NEXT (2021) season – meaning that it would become guaranteed long before we would ever see Wentz play in a Colts uniform. Since I highly doubt that we’d trade for and then cut him before that point, this amount would for all practical purposes be guaranteed. So depending upon how long we would decide to keep him, the existing contract would equate to any one of the following (our choice):

1 Year / $40.4M
2 Year / $47.4M
3 year / $72.4M
4 year / $98.4M

On the issue of trade value, reasonable minds can of course disagree. Certainly, he brings a lot of upside, and that upside by itself is no doubt worth a 3rd round pick in isolation, but we also have to consider the cost to the Colts (at least $40.4M, probably more), the risks/potential downside given his most recent performance, and perhaps most importantly the existing pressure on Philly to unload him. They are something like $60M-$70M over next year’s cap already, so they desperately need to make some major changes and can’t afford to keep paying a backup QB this kind of money. Those factors should significantly reduce his value in a negotiation context to the point that I think only a nominal pick and/or player would be required in return.

In a way, I’d actually be strangely encouraged if the Colts were forced into giving the Eagles a 3rd round pick for him, since that would suggest to me that we REALLY like him and are confident that whatever went wrong this season can be fixed, and/or that there was lots of competition for him and thus other teams like him as well. I have faith in the process here, since I don’t think Ballard will be bamboozled into paying significantly more than he’s worth.

That doesn't make sense with the potential out listed on Spotrac. Clearly, there has to be a way to get out of the contract while absorbing only the signing bonus and option bonus amounts (which would be 0 with the Colts). I don't think you're right about the 2022 salary being guaranteed. There has to be some sort of out. Why would they go out of their way to list it otherwise? Do you have some sort of proof of that second year guarantee claim?

Even if you were right about the second year guarantee, $40 million would represent a $5 million decrease in investment in the QB position for the Colts.

You are technically correct - the $15 million isn't guaranteed yet, and wouldn't be guaranteed until March 20, 2021 - the third day of the league year. However, I was operating on the assumption that it was effectively guaranteed, at least as to the Colts, because if we traded for Wentz and took on his $25.4M salary for 2021, we aren't going to cut him before March 20 of this year absent his involvement in some sort of OJ-style murder spree.

From the Eagle's perspective, however, it is possible (though very unlikely in my view) that if they can't find a trade partner, they could go nuclear and cut him, absorb the $60M cap hit next year to be done with it. In that case, assuming they did this prior to March 20, they wouldn't have to pay the $15M because it would not have vested yet.

Spotrac's breakdown is from the perspective of the Eagles, not any potential trade partners.

And what have we learned? Too much money screws up a fun game. See baseball as an example

At any rate, that's a lot of money to give a QB with a career 89 passer rating and a winning percentage of .514.

Reich would have to be very certain that he can turn him around.

But if the 2022 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, how could the Eagles get out with only the signing and option bonuses as dead cap in 2022? I think you may be confusing the 2021 and 2022 salaries? Because it would make sense for the 2021 salary to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, but it makes less sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed on that day. It would also make sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed the third day of the 2022 league year, and would provide the out that Spotrac seems to think exists. I feel like gambling on Wentz in 2021 at the price of 2020 Rivers is worth a 3, because either Reich fixes him and he's the franchise QB who we got for a 3, or he doesn't and the Colts will be able to draft their next franchise QB and walk away from Wentz commitment free.

Considering that his issues seem to be poor playcalling for his skillset, trying to do too much, and mechanics (in a year where a pandemic eliminated the preseason and OTAs), and that he was MVP caliber with Reich as his OC, I think Wentz's best chance of turning it around is with the Colts, where he'll have a team that he doesn't have to carry to win and Reich has demonstrated the ability to tailor an offense to his skillset and has fixed his mechanical issues previously.

Agreed. The good news is that if he’s still a good starting QB, he’d be a bargain to have him locked in at $24.5M for the next four years. And the downside is more limited, since his guarantees would only apply to the next two seasons at an average of $23.7M per (the third and fourth years are entirely unguaranteed – just straight salaries/roster bonuses).

It's worth noting that this contract structure would actually be somewhat consistent with some of Ballard’s other contracts, where the guarantees are all in the first couple years, leaving lots of flexibility at the backend. Look at the contracts for DeForest Buckner and Ryan Kelly – both have all of the guarantees in the first two years.

You make a good point – not sure why the $15M guarantee isn’t accounted for in the 2022 dead cap calculations at Spotrac. Honestly, I think they’ve simply overlooked that part of the guarantees when calculating their dead cap number. I ran a quick search and see that it’s been accounted for in this narrative breakdown on the CBS Sports website, which correctly states that the Eagles' dead cap in 2022 would be $39.5M:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...r%20his%202021

I note the numbers used by the agent in the above article include a few other discrepancies from the Spotrac calculations, so there may be nuances that one or the other have missed. The agent's take appears to be pretty consistent with what I've laid out in prior posts regarding cap hits, etc. to an acquiring team. And he seems to think that the cap numbers will make it difficult to find a taker for Wentz - so again, I think a third rounder would be a significant overpay.

That article you cited points out the problem with your theory, which is that the Eagles don't have to trade Wentz. They even point out that Sam Bradford netted a 1 previously when the Eagles didn't want him. Granted, Bradford didn't have the albatross contract of Wentz, but the Eagles have Hurts on a rookie deal and could conceivably more easily afford keeping him than dumping him. The Eagles aren't just going to give him away, which is why under the circumstances a 3 would likely be the price. It allows them to save some face while getting rid of what might otherwise be a massive problem.

From the Colts perspective, a 3 is not that much to give up, especially if they get a franchise QB (and if they don't losing a 3 doesn't set the team back 2-3 years), and if he totally bombs, you get your franchise QB in 2022 and cut Wentz with a $15 million dead cap hit as long as it's done before the third day of the 2022 league year, with two QBs on rookie contracts. I don't really see the downside to the idea, as I think Ballard and Reich have earned enough credibility in Irsay's eyes to weather the storm if it goes poorly and if course they'll look like geniuses if it goes well.

You are correct that the Eagles are not required to trade Wentz, but if they see Hurts as their starting QB going forward, they should DESPARATELY want get rid of Wentz – and, yes, even if give him away if that opportunity presented itself.

The Eagles are $70M over the 2021 cap right now, so big changes are coming and they are facing a rebuild. As I mentioned above, getting rid of Wentz won’t help the 2021 cap all that much, but it WILL dramatically improve future years. If he’s traded, he’ll still count $33.8M against the 2021 cap, but that will be the end of it for the Eagles. If he stays, however, he’ll count $34.6M against the 2021 cap AND he’ll chew up a minimum of $39.5M in future cap space, and probably more. By keeping him, they actually worsen (slightly) their 2021 cap situation, AND handicap future years as well. All to keep a disgruntled QB they see as a backup.

Put another way, imagine Jacoby Brissett chewing up $30M+ of the Colts cap on a rolling forward basis over the next several years. If another team approached you and inquired about a trade that could limit that damage to a single year, how strongly would you insist on a high-round draft pick in return? I don't think you would at all. I think you’d be willing to settle for just about anything, even one of Tom Brady's old, deflated footballs. Certainly, in absolute terms, Brissett is worth far more than an old, deflated football, but really that’s not the point – it’s the opportunity to avoid the cap damage that he causes as a backup QB making a premium salary which reduces his value to that amount.

Does any one here think Brissett will be on the team next year?

^ No

Yes

I think he will be kept as long as he accepts a contract as a backup QB. That is, unless Eason is ready to assume that role.

No.

Fine, you've convinced me, let's go after Wentz and Fletcher Cox for a 3.

Mcshay has us picking Mac Jones in round 1

Way to beat him down Chaka