INDIANAPOLIS – We’ve never seen anyone like Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, so don’t tell me we have. Not in football, anyway. We have seen someone like him in basketball, though, a sentence that underscores one of two things:
How unique, how impossible to project, this guy is.
How Anthony Richardson can get someone – me, in this instance – twisted into an intellectual pretzel, trying to make sense of what he’ll be in a few years, when the truth is we don’t have enough evidence to know.
Luckily for me and you, Anthony Richardson is merely a thought exercise. We can think he’s this, or we can think he’s that, and what does it matter if we’re wrong?
Imagine being Chris Ballard, general manager of the Indianapolis Colts. Imagine being any of the half-dozen GM’s around the league who are considering the top four quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft class. Some of them, like the Houston Texans at No. 2 overall and the Colts at No. 4, entered the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in position* to draft Richardson. Others, like Carolina and Las Vegas and a few others, are considering trading up to get into position.
*The Colts might not be in position to draft Richardson anymore. Hell, the Texans might not be in position, either.
*Because this is what I’m talking about.
Oh, don’t mind me. Just having a conversation with myself, trying to decide what Anthony Richardson is. And what he’s not. Watch what happens next. It’s about to get weird here.
OK, weirder.
Mar 4, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (QB11) participates in drills at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony Richardson is Peyton Manning – or Ryan Leaf
The Colts actually considered drafting Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning in 1998 because they had too much time to think about it. Bill Polian made the right choice, in hindsight the obvious choice, and we know how the story turned out. But if you recall, the dominant storyline before the 1998 NFL Draft was a question: Manning or Leaf?
Same thing happened 14 years later, a draft that again had the Colts picking No. 1 overall. The dominant storyline before the 2012 NFL Draft was another question: Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III?
This is what happens when you give people, even smart people, too much time to think before making a decision. NFL teams, draft analysts, fans, all of us: Give us enough time, and we’ll turn Ryan Leaf into a legitimate challenger for the 1998 No. 1 pick to Peyton Manning, who’d been considered the best quarterback prospect in years. Give us enough time and we’ll turn Luck – generally considered the best QB prospect since Manning – into the possible No. 2 pick behind RGIII. Give us too much time and we’ll talk ourselves into Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky. And Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.
Are we doing that with Anthony Richardson? When the season ended he was this big, strong, fast quarterback who had completed 53.8% of his passes for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Those aren’t the numbers of an SEC junior quarterback going high in the NFL Draft. Those are the numbers of an SEC junior quarterback who’s about to lose his job as a senior.
But then came the combine, which told us … what we already knew. We knew Richardson was big, strong and fast. Guess what? We were right! He measured 6-4 and 244 pounds, and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds. Also posted a 40.5-inch vertical, which will come in handy during offseason pickup games.
For months Alabama’s Bryce Young has been widely considered the top QB prospect in this draft. But then came the combine, where Bryce Young measured at just 5-10, 204 pounds. Who knew he was that small?
Everyone.
Only now it’s different because we see those numbers side by side. Young is still expected to go No. 1 overall, but bookmakers in Las Vegas have Richardson closing fast. Once a 100-to-1 longshot of going first overall, Richardson is now seen by some bookmakers as the closest challenger to Young for the No. 1 pick. Yes, ahead of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
When’s the 2023 NFL Draft, anyway? Not for another six weeks? Lord, help us all. By then Vegas will be taking bets on who goes second behind Richardson. Followed by bets on the next GM to get fired.
You know, whoever takes Anthony Richardson with the first or second pick.
No, Anthony Richardson is Zach Edey!
Do me a favor. Check this IndyStar headline from a story I wrote Dec. 1, 2020:
No mold for player as big, skilled & inexperienced as 7-4 Purdue freshman Zach Edey
Now try it again. We’ll substitute a few words:
No mold for player as big, skilled & inexperienced as 6-4, 244-pound Florida QB Anthony Richardson
Near the end of that story, because I’m a firm believer in meandering all over the place before writing the best words as late as possible – sigh – here’s how that story concludes:
The kid’s huge, and he’s getting bigger. He’s a basketball natural, and he’s getting better. What will Zach Edey become? No idea. There’s no mold for someone like this.
Now, try the same thing. Replace “Zach Edey” with “Anthony Richardson.”
That’s how this feels.
Doyel from 2020: No mold for 7-4 Purdue freshman Zach Edey
I know, I know! I know what I said earlier about people – even “smart people,” ahem – having too much time on their hands. We can talk ourselves into anything, can’t we? Here’s the thing: That story on Dec. 1, 2020, about Zach Edey was written moments after my first look at the young man. It seemed obvious, on first impression, that we’d never seen anything like Edey. What was his ceiling? Hell if I knew 27 months ago, but I knew it was way up there.
Edey is about to be the consensus national player of the year this year, which doesn’t prove how smart I was in 2020. It supports only what I’m going to tell you now. Rather, what author Malcolm Gladwell already did tell you, in his brilliant best-seller from 2005, “Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking.”
“The key to good decision making is not knowledge,” Gladwell writes. “It is understanding.”
And what I understood about Zach Edey in 2020, what anyone who saw him play back then understood, is what we’re understanding about Anthony Richardson now: There’s no mold for someone like this, someone with this size and speed and explosive athletic ability, but someone who passed infrequently in high school, barely played as a freshman or sophomore at Florida, and put up modest numbers in his only season as the starter. You consider what Richardson will be in a few years, and it’s like watching raw Zach Edey as a college freshman.
Gladwell also wrote: “There can be as much value in the blink of an eye as in months of rational analysis.”
Which means, in the blink of an eye, we can see Richardson has the best combination of size, speed, arm strength and explosive ability of any quarterback, ever. Only 2011 Cam Newton comes close, but Richardson is roughly the same size while noticeably faster and more explosive.
How much should the Colts offer the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick, anyway? Two or three future first-round picks, some second- and third-day picks, and maybe – I don’t know – Darius Leonard for good measure?
Do it, Colts. But only if you’re going to take Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. Because Anthony Richardson scares the hell out of me.
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03-08-2023, 04:33 PM
Doyel: If I'm the Colts I want Anthony Richardson ... but pick Bryce Young
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