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  #141  
Old 01-10-2020, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post

Now, the question of course is whether Ballard likes any of these QBs enough to make such a bold move. At a minimum, given that we have the security of having Brissett around for another year, I think we'll use a high draft pick on a developmental QB. I don't think we'd be committed to such a player for 2-3 years (Basham was a 3rd rounder at a position of dire need and Ballard had no hesitation getting rid of him after a year), and a year as an understudy would tell the team a lot before making that decision.
To me what you see as the minimum is absolutely crazy, but I fear it’s exactly what Ballard may do. I’m afraid he’s going to try to find the big win with little risk. He’s going to draft someone with all the physical tools you’d want (like Love) and count on Reich to develop him. If it works then great! But I doubt it does and I think it will just continue to string out the rebuild. I don’t think you can play the same games at QB as he has at some of the other positions. I also disagree that you can move on after a year or two as easily as he did with Basham. A developmental QB requires the full dedication and backing of the entire organization. It’s both the hardest and most important position in sports. It’s just not the same as drafting a project DE or DT.
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  #142  
Old 01-10-2020, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by albany ed View Post
Me too, but if he is, we're not making the playoffs.
I don’t disagree, but I’m also not sure that’s a bad thing. I think the overall roster is improving, but it’s still pretty far from being able to carry a mediocre QB to a title ala TB and Baltimore with Dilfer and Flacco. I don’t really advocate tanking, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing to have a top 8 draft pick next year if Ballard doesn’t get his guy this year. Without a QB the rest of the build means very, very little. He needs to get this right. If one more season missing the playoffs are the cost of getting it right then I’m fine with that because the cost of getting it wrong is much steeper.
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  #143  
Old 01-10-2020, 04:15 PM
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To me what you see as the minimum is absolutely crazy, but I fear it’s exactly what Ballard may do. I’m afraid he’s going to try to find the big win with little risk. He’s going to draft someone with all the physical tools you’d want (like Love) and count on Reich to develop him. If it works then great! But I doubt it does and I think it will just continue to string out the rebuild. I don’t think you can play the same games at QB as he has at some of the other positions. I also disagree that you can move on after a year or two as easily as he did with Basham. A developmental QB requires the full dedication and backing of the entire organization. It’s both the hardest and most important position in sports. It’s just not the same as drafting a project DE or DT.
yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.
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  #144  
Old 01-10-2020, 04:31 PM
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yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.
If the goal is Super Bowls and not just being a decent / to good team then the only viable options to me are 1, 4/5. Either you take the first option and you go get Tua (or Herbert) if you believe in him or you push the decision to next year. That doesn’t necessarily mean you have to tank, but I don’t think you try to half ass it. If I couldn’t get it solved this year with someone I truly believe in then I’d look to move at least 1 possibly 2 of this years top 3 picks into next year so that I have ammunition when the time comes. Both of those 2nd round picks are worth a 1st next year. And #34 in particular is typically highly sought after. I’d rather do that than waste a top 45 pick on someone at QB I don’t fully believe in.

I suppose it’s always possible that they truly value someone like Love, Eason, or Fromm over a Tua or Herbert. If that’s the case and they think they can stay at 13 or 34 and get them then great. But they need to be right and really believe he’s better than the other consensus top guys. If he’s the 4th guy on their board and they still think he can be a franchise guy then I’d say their evaluation process is suspect and likely being influenced by need.

Last edited by rm1369; 01-10-2020 at 04:34 PM.
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  #145  
Old 01-10-2020, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by rcubed View Post
yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.
I just don’t think 5 is a likely option, and here’s why – what would make the Colts think that next year is going to be any better for us than this year? Why would that be any less risky than this year, when everything is already positioned properly? I don’t think we are going to be materially worse next year with Brissett, and when our players return from injury and the young guys have another year under their belt. And maybe we’ll be better, possibly even a playoff team as crazy as that might seem. So would we need to extend Brissett again to make sure the QB drafted next year doesn’t have to start right away?

Just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, but this year seems to be the year to draft a QB. And I’ll go further and say that may not be by accident.
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  #146  
Old 01-10-2020, 06:26 PM
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I just don’t think 5 is a likely option, and here’s why – what would make the Colts think that next year is going to be any better for us than this year? Why would that be any less risky than this year, when everything is already positioned properly? I don’t think we are going to be materially worse next year with Brissett, and when our players return from injury and the young guys have another year under their belt. And maybe we’ll be better, possibly even a playoff team as crazy as that might seem. So would we need to extend Brissett again to make sure the QB drafted next year doesn’t have to start right away?

Just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, but this year seems to be the year to draft a QB. And I’ll go further and say that may not be by accident.
Because it’s about the player, not the timing. That’s it. If they don’t believe anyone is worth going and getting then they don’t believe in them enough as franchise guys. A franchise QB is worth the cost to move to 4. If they can’t get it done because nobody wants to trade or someone else beats them to it then you don’t take what you can get - not at QB. You realize you are screwed and adjust. To me that means pushing draft capital to next year. You seem to be all about pushing salary to the future for future needs, why would draft picks be any different?

But it just comes down to the fact a QB is the single most important person in a franchise to its success. Yes, more important than the GM or the coach. You don’t settle on a guy because it’s a convenient year to pick them. You need to be absolutely in love with the guy - as a player, leader, and face of the franchise. If that has to wait, then you wait.

As far as what you do with Brissett it depends but you probably let him walk and sign a short term vet as the initial starter. I’m a big time believer in having a vet young guys can lean on and learn from. Especially a young QB. If you invest in a QB you need that vet to be someone that knows his primary role is as a mentor (and temp starter) not someone who is still trying to prove themselves. So that won’t be JB. And that’s another reason why I don’t like the idea of drafting someone and then doing it again if they don’t work. QB is the single position where I don’t believe competition is good. If everyone in the locker room doesn’t know and understand who the guy is, you don’t have one.

Last edited by rm1369; 01-10-2020 at 06:36 PM.
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  #147  
Old 01-12-2020, 05:08 PM
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So lets say we stay with JB/Kelly one more yr.

A kid to watch for next yr is Jamie Newman. Doubt we'll be bad enough for Lawrence . But Newman could be someone to be considered.
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  #148  
Old 01-13-2020, 11:21 AM
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Because it’s about the player, not the timing. That’s it. If they don’t believe anyone is worth going and getting then they don’t believe in them enough as franchise guys. A franchise QB is worth the cost to move to 4. If they can’t get it done because nobody wants to trade or someone else beats them to it then you don’t take what you can get - not at QB. You realize you are screwed and adjust. To me that means pushing draft capital to next year. You seem to be all about pushing salary to the future for future needs, why would draft picks be any different?

But it just comes down to the fact a QB is the single most important person in a franchise to its success. Yes, more important than the GM or the coach. You don’t settle on a guy because it’s a convenient year to pick them. You need to be absolutely in love with the guy - as a player, leader, and face of the franchise. If that has to wait, then you wait.

As far as what you do with Brissett it depends but you probably let him walk and sign a short term vet as the initial starter. I’m a big time believer in having a vet young guys can lean on and learn from. Especially a young QB. If you invest in a QB you need that vet to be someone that knows his primary role is as a mentor (and temp starter) not someone who is still trying to prove themselves. So that won’t be JB. And that’s another reason why I don’t like the idea of drafting someone and then doing it again if they don’t work. QB is the single position where I don’t believe competition is good. If everyone in the locker room doesn’t know and understand who the guy is, you don’t have one.
The problem with this thinking is that it essentially means the Colts shouldn’t take a QB unless it’s at the very top of the draft – anyone further down (say, mid-1st round or lower) is going to have question marks. But if the Colts can't trade up and aren’t bad enough next year to have a pick at the top of the draft, we’ll be in the exact same position (or maybe worse) but will have lost a year. Outside of the top of the 1st round, I think roughly the same QB opportunities will exist this year or next, so why wait?

So I think you take a QB this year, one that has some of the franchise qualities you’re looking for, and use 2020 to develop that player. Maybe it’s not even in the top three rounds – maybe someone even lower - but someone whose potential you believe will become clear in a year.
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  #149  
Old 01-13-2020, 12:44 PM
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The problem with this thinking is that it essentially means the Colts shouldn’t take a QB unless it’s at the very top of the draft – anyone further down (say, mid-1st round or lower) is going to have question marks. But if the Colts can't trade up and aren’t bad enough next year to have a pick at the top of the draft, we’ll be in the exact same position (or maybe worse) but will have lost a year. Outside of the top of the 1st round, I think roughly the same QB opportunities will exist this year or next, so why wait?

So I think you take a QB this year, one that has some of the franchise qualities you’re looking for, and use 2020 to develop that player. Maybe it’s not even in the top three rounds – maybe someone even lower - but someone whose potential you believe will become clear in a year.
There is no more important position on an NFL team than QB. Advocating taking someone that’s cheap and just seeing what happens is absolutely ridiculous to me. It’s hard for me to really get my head around how risk adverse you are. Ballard is not going to build a championship team by simply avoiding making a mistake. He is going to have to actively fix holes on this roster. Ultimately, I’m not saying they have to trade up this year or next. I’m simply saying they have to identify someone they believe in, get them, and then put the entire resources of the organization behind them. That is not a 1 year process for a rookie 3rd round QB. I’d much rather them actively try to fix the issue at QB and miss than waiting to see what falls in their lap.

If starting the 2021 or 2022 season the team still has no long term answer at QB and they have not at least heavily invested in finding one are you going to be OK with that and preach patience? Maybe tell us how much better the backup guards are now than when Ballard started? If Ballard plays the same games at QB he has a WR he will fail. He may improve the overall roster but the team isn’t going to win anything that matters. I hope like hell Ballard isn’t as risk adverse as you are.
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  #150  
Old 01-13-2020, 05:18 PM
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There is no more important position on an NFL team than QB. Advocating taking someone that’s cheap and just seeing what happens is absolutely ridiculous to me. It’s hard for me to really get my head around how risk adverse you are. Ballard is not going to build a championship team by simply avoiding making a mistake. He is going to have to actively fix holes on this roster. Ultimately, I’m not saying they have to trade up this year or next. I’m simply saying they have to identify someone they believe in, get them, and then put the entire resources of the organization behind them. That is not a 1 year process for a rookie 3rd round QB. I’d much rather them actively try to fix the issue at QB and miss than waiting to see what falls in their lap.

If starting the 2021 or 2022 season the team still has no long term answer at QB and they have not at least heavily invested in finding one are you going to be OK with that and preach patience? Maybe tell us how much better the backup guards are now than when Ballard started? If Ballard plays the same games at QB he has a WR he will fail. He may improve the overall roster but the team isn’t going to win anything that matters. I hope like hell Ballard isn’t as risk adverse as you are.
What exactly are you talking about? I wasn’t advocating taking someone “cheap”. All I was saying – consistent with everything I’ve been saying in this thread – is that the stars are aligned to take a QB this year. If that means trading up – great, I honestly think Ballard would do that if he can find a willing partner, despite the common belief that he’s too in love with this own draft picks to do it. If no suitable trade partners can be found, then I think we should still draft a QB since I don’t think we’ll be in any better position next year (and maybe worse) and just a year older. Not just "anyone", but someone the team thinks can be developed. We will never find a perfect QB prospect in the mid-first round or later, so we just need to accept that and find someone we think we can develop now.

You seem to be willing to throw away the opportunity to develop someone for an entire year – and to keep the organization idling - on the HOPE that we could trade up next year for a top QB prospect without knowing who that may be or where we will be drafting. I think that’s crazy – but call it “risk averse” if you want. Furthermore, we would need to extend Brissett for another year or sign a vet QB (and who might that be? I guess Kurt Cousins has shown a history of being interested in 1-year contracts, but who else?).

Despite what you say, there’s nothing wrong with drafting a QB and evaluating them for a year and, if necessary, getting rid of them if they aren’t going to pan out. Among the higher round draftees, Josh Rosen and Deshone Kizer are a couple of recent examples that come to mind.
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