NFL.com article on predicted wins

[sherck]

Using some math model that uses a WHOLE lot more data than I thought was recorded in any one database (located here).

The Colts?

#19 COLTS: 7.4 wins
Current record: 3-5. Projected playoff percentage: 27.3.

The Colts have the league's best third-down offense, converting 52.2 percent of the time on this crucial down. One of the main drivers of their success here -- and when it comes to wins -- is the improved ability of the O-line to keep Andrew Luck upright. Luck has only been sacked 10 times in eight games and is posting the lowest sack average in the league (1.25 sacks per game). Some of this is because of Luck's excellent decision-making, but also note that over the past three games, Luck has been sacked exactly zero times.

Seems about right; 4 or 5 wins out of our last 8 games. That is about the team we are right now.

I would LOVE for us to win more than that but am resigned to a 7 or 8 win season at this point.

Walk Worthy,

[omahacolt]

Looks right to me.

[VeveJones007]

Yep. You don't need a fancy model to know that a +18 point differential over 8 games translates to roughly a 4-4 record. You extrapolate that to the remaining 8 games and you expect about 4 more wins.

[1965southpaw]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Yep. You don't need a fancy model to know that a +18 point differential over 8 games translates to roughly a 4-4 record. You extrapolate that to the remaining 8 games and you expect about 4 more wins.

Lol....I used an even simpler math model to predict 8 wins before the season began......

Take 2017 wins (4) and replace the most clueless HC ever with a talented QB (2x force multiplier because both coaching and talent matter) = 8 wins

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by 1965southpaw

Lol....I used an even simpler math model to predict 8 wins before the season began......

Take 2017 wins (4) and replace the most clueless HC ever with a talented QB (2x force multiplier because both coaching and talent matter) = 8 wins

My way is less controversial on this site.

[1965southpaw]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

My way is less controversial on this site.

If you aren't pissing someone off, you aren't trying hard enough.

[FatDT]

I said 7 wins in preseason and this seems about on par w/that.

[Chaka]

Four more wins sounds fairly reasonable, though I think (and hope) we could do a little better than that. Should have had a better first half record. The Texans loss might be one that people find fault with, but a tie wouldn't have improved our playoff prospects all that much. Still glad we went for the win instead, even if it didn't work.

[Pez]

On the day of the game I was pissed about going for it, it took me a couple days to understand that (at last in a way), Ballard was making a statement about the culture he is trying to install in this team. Play to win. There's even logic behind it, it was 4th and 2 I think, and we are over 50% conversion rate on 3rd down... go for it.

I think 5 wins down the stretch is reasonable. If we get a little help from Houston we can be in the hunt for the division, or if Houston runs away with it we might be in the hunt for an AFC wildcard.

Feels like 8-8 to me, missing the playoffs and on very solid footing for next year.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by sherck

Using some math model that uses a WHOLE lot more data than I thought was recorded in any one database (located here).

The Colts?



Seems about right; 4 or 5 wins out of our last 8 games. That is about the team we are right now.

I would LOVE for us to win more than that but am resigned to a 7 or 8 win season at this point.

Walk Worthy,

I think the O line play has been a vast improvement over last year. And since Costanzo has returned, WOW.

But I would inject this one item. Scheme. The O line has a better chance of keeping Luck clean when the D just can't pin it's ears back and come full speed on the snap.

The Jags game in Indy last year, when there was NOTHING to stop the Jags from bringing 7 guys on a blitz was ghastly to watch. That won't happen this year. Opposing teams can't overpower the O line, because Luck will have options. It's the scheme. ITS COACHING.