Draft position update.

[Coltsalr]

Originally Posted by njcoltfan

The Texans are tanking today too !!!!

Which is odd, given that their first round pick belongs to Cleveland.

[sherck]

Updated order not counting tonight's MNF game. In ( ) are the team records and their updated Strength of Schedule. Lower SoS picks earlier if the records are the same.

1. Cleveland Browns (0-14, .513)
2. New York Giants (2-12, .529)
3. Indianapolis Colts (3-11, .487)
4. Houston Texans (4-10, .504)
5. San Francisco 49ers (4-10, .513)
6. Chicago Bears (4-10, .559)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9, .559)
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-9, .473)
9. Denver Broncos (5-9, .482)
10. New York Jets (5-9, .532)

So, with 2 weeks to go, we currently own the #3 pick.

If the NYG win one of their last two games (@ARI, WAS), their stronger SoS ensures that we would be ahead of them in the pick order if we lose out and gain the #2 pick.

Also, our much weaker SoS ensures that we would stay at the head of the 4-win line even if we tripped up and won one of our last two games retaining the #3 pick.

Of course, if we somehow truly screw up and win our last two games, we would probably drop down to #9 behind CIN since they have an even weaker SoS that we do.

So, in week 16, root for the Giants and for us to lose to the Ravens and we will ensure that we end up with the #2 or #3 pick.

Walk Worthy,

[FatDT]

Lose to Ravens, then kick the shit out of the Texans sounds pretty good to me. I don't know that going from 3 to 2 makes much of a difference.

[GoBigBlue88]

So pissed at Giants yesterday. They dialed up the worst 4 red zone plays I've seen in some time. Coulda won and put the Colts in contention for #2...

[Coltsalr]

Originally Posted by FatDT

Lose to Ravens, then kick the shit out of the Texans sounds pretty good to me. I don't know that going from 3 to 2 makes much of a difference.

I guess that depends on whether Rosen/Darnold grade out as being a cut above and guys that teams are willing to give up crazy assets for.

If so, then owning the #2 pick likely becomes critical in terms of being able to entertain trade proposals.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Coltsalr

I guess that depends on whether Rosen/Darnold grade out as being a cut above and guys that teams are willing to give up crazy assets for.

If so, then owning the #2 pick likely becomes critical in terms of being able to entertain trade proposals.

This. Getting the 2nd pick could be significant value. Also, with the snaking of draft picks when you have the same record, the Colts could end up picking 3rd in the first, 6th in the second, etc. Another win hurts in evenly numbered rounds.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by Coltsalr

I guess that depends on whether Rosen/Darnold grade out as being a cut above and guys that teams are willing to give up crazy assets for.

If so, then owning the #2 pick likely becomes critical in terms of being able to entertain trade proposals.

I don't know.

The team with the most ammo to move up is Cleveland because they have a HUGE bounty of picks in the 2018 draft.

Them moving to #2 is too expensive and not needed assuming that the #2 pick is a QB when they probably just drafted a QB #1 overall.

For example,I just saw one mock that had the Browns drafting QB Josh Rosen, UCLA with the #1 overall pick and then trading for the #3 pick with the Colts in order to draft RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State.

For our #3 pick, they gave up the #6 pick, the Texans 2nd round pick and their own 4th round pick.

Perhaps the #2 pick would be more compensation, but the Browns have no need to move to #2 and anyone else moving to #2 would probably have to use future year picks to do so.

We need help now. An extra 2nd round and 4th round in 2017 AND still the ability to pick one of:

OLB Bradley Chubb, N.C. State
OT Connor Williams, Texas
OG Quenton Netson, Notre Dame
DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama

Would be pretty nice.


===
FYI, from that mock draft with the trade, our first three round draft "haul" was:

#06 overall (1st round) = OLB Bradley Chubb, N.C. State
#35 overall (2nd round) = OT Martinas Rankin, Mississippi State
#38 overall (2nd round) = OG Will Hernandez, UTEP
#67 overall (3rd round) = ILB Cameron Smith, USC

An AFC scout compares NC State senior edge rusher Bradley Chubb to a "much more" explosive Derek Barnett.
"If you compare him to Derek Barnett, he has similar production but he is a much more explosive athlete," he said. "I think he is way ahead of (Boston College's Harold) Landry as a pro prospect." Chubb (6'4/275) is also bigger than Barnett (6'3/259). NFL.com's Lance Zierlein did not that Barnett has better hands than Chubb. "I'm undecided on where I project him, but he will be drafted earlier than where Barnett, the 14th overall pick in 2017, went," Zierlein wrote.

2015 / 13 games / 66 tackles / 10.5 TFL / 05.0 sacks / 2 FF / 1 PD / 1 INT
2016 / 13 games / 56 tackles / 21.0 TFL / 10.0 sacks / 3 FF / 1 PD / 0 INT
2017 / 12 games / 72 tackles / 23.0 TFL / 10.0 sacks / 1 FF / 2 PD / 1 INT

Watching just a bit of film on him, he looks smooth, fast and powerful. Of course, all NFL players are smooth, fast and powerful (exept Rawb Morris) but he looks like he could come in and contribute immediately alongside Sheard, Simon, Mingo and Basham.

Double O-Linemen is good. ILB is good. This would be a nice start to the 2018 draft.

Walk Worthy,

[FatDT]

Originally Posted by Coltsalr

I guess that depends on whether Rosen/Darnold grade out as being a cut above and guys that teams are willing to give up crazy assets for.

If so, then owning the #2 pick likely becomes critical in terms of being able to entertain trade proposals.

Good points I did not consider. I just want to be able to win and enjoy it without thinking about draft order. This season sucks on almost every level. Hell we may not even have a chance against the Texans. I don't know what rock bottom is for this team.

[1965southpaw]

#FlubforChubb #BadforBrad

[sherck]

Just looked at the 2018 draft trades.

The only 2 teams with lots of "firepower" to trade into the top couple of draft spots without the use of future draft picks are CLE and BUF.

CLE owns an extra 1st round pick (HOU), two extra 2nd round picks (HOU, PHI) and an extra 4th round pick (CAR) while retaining all of their own top round picks.

BUF owns an extra 1st round pick (KC) and an extra 2nd round pick (LAR).

It is possible that both BUF and KC make it into the playoffs so they would both be picking at 20 or lower. Even if BUF or KC do not get into the playoffs, they will probably be picking at least 17 at best based on their 8 wins thus far.

From the Walter Football draft value chart:

#2 overall pick = 2,600 points
#3 overall pick = 2,200 points

#17 overall pick = 950 points
#20 overall pick = 850 points
2nd round picks in that range = ~ 400 points

So, BUF could decide to jump up to #2 or #3 with current year picks IF they wanted to use both their 1st round picks and one (for #3 pick) or both (#2 pick) of their 2nd round picks in order to do so. I find that scenario possible but unlikely. Perhaps they feel like they are only a QB away from being competitive but giving up 4 prime draft picks for 1 player is a hard sell.

Thus, the most probably trade with current year picks is CLE coming up from their acquired Houston pick (currently #6 overall) and adding lower round picks to make up the value:

#6 overall = 1,600 points
#38 overall = 520 points (HOU 2nd round pick)
#101 overall = 96 points (own 4th round pick)

The question would be is if Cleveland wanted to pick #1 / #2 overall or #1 / #3 overall. Assuming that the #2 pick ends up being the "other" QB not taken by CLE #1 overall, then they have no need to move to #2 and moving to #3 would ensure that they got the player that they desired.

If Ballard is looking for current year picks, then having the #3 pick might end up being a better bet. If he is okay with giving away value this year in order to gain another 1st round pick next year, then just about anyone could be a trade partner.

Walk Worthy,