I'm officially on the Stroud bandwagon

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Well the thing is, unless all of the teams agree that none of these guys is "THE GUY"... it's going to be more expensive than it should be for this crop. Even if you don't get ahead of HOU, you still need to outbid stay right behind them. Sucks if these guys are all as iffy as everyone thinks.

Best case seems to me to be if Dam is right and Stroud is a stud worth the price. Because Young is little and Levis gives me Wentz flashbacks, both of whom will give me a heart attack 20 times a game. But really I have no idea this year.

The only two guys in this draft that have shown enough to believe they have the high upside of a franchise QB with minimal bust downside risk are Stroud and Young. Picking between those two, Young carries an extra risk of size as a concern. Stroud does not have that concern. Ultimately I'd be elated with Stroud, satisfied but concerned with Young, and know that we've seen the last of Ballard with Levis or Richardson. Bust potential is through the roof for Levis and Richardson.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

If you have a clear QB1 and your options are trade next year's 1 or let Houston get him, what do you do? I trade next year's 1.

Not when that pick could be a better QB next year. I would put Williams and Maye above both these guys. Then you have a host of other QBs with potential that could rise into the top five. I would stay put or deal around that 2024 1st. Even if you hit on your QB that pick could be worth a lot in trade material. And it’s no guarantee that is their QB 1. As I said each of these guys has positive and negative traits. Staying put, the very worst scenario here is they get a cornerstone defensive player.

Besides when was the last time three QBs went in the top three? I think it will be like 2020 draft ultimately.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by apballin

I’m not opposed to Stroud I was saying Levi’s only trying to predict irsay

Stroud definitely has the better resume but now alot of teams are looking for QBs all of a sudden so this is gonna get interesting

I’m sure Frank Reich would love to jump ahead of us and take the Qb irsay wants

I don’t know if we have a clear favorite bc we will still need the head coach’s and offensive staff’s input. I’m sure extensive profiles are being drawn up on all four of the guys.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Not when that pick could be a better QB next year. I would put Williams and Maye above both these guys. Then you have a host of other QBs with potential that could rise into the top five. I would stay put or deal around that 2024 1st. Even if you hit on your QB that pick could be worth a lot in trade material. And it’s no guarantee that is their QB 1. As I said each of these guys has positive and negative traits. Staying put, the very worst scenario here is they get a cornerstone defensive player.

Besides when was the last time three QBs went in the top three? I think it will be like 2020 draft ultimately.

Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind. Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610;259819[B

]Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind.[/B] Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.

Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.

[Oldcolt]

Drafting a qb is a crap shoot, just like getting the correct coach. Nobody has any idea who will be great,if anyone, with this class of qbs. Unless it is someone like Elway, Manning or Luck a lot will have to do with the players and system we put around him. None of these guys seem like they are anything special. I hope we stay put and take whomever falls to us and build a decent coaching staff and line around him. Mostly I hope we get lucky

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.

Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.

No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.

As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.

As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.

All that said, my point was more that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the shiny new toys right now. They're being talked about now the way CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were being talked about this time last year. Prospect fatigue is real, and you can expect it to set in with anyone, especially QBs. People start finding negative things about them just to stop having to talk about them. Don't be surprised if at this time next year, we're talking about the high risk, non-franchise QB prospects that are Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but don't worry, the shiny new toys of the 2025 draft class will save us all.

Regarding Ballard's evaluation style, he does value traits and athleticism at most positions, but when he's drafting high, he tends to take players that have the film to match the traits they display on the field. If he was going to draft an Anthony Richardson type, he'd do it in Round 2 or 3, not in the top 5 of the draft. Furthermore, we can look at the 2 QBs Ballard has drafted to get some insight as to what he values at the position, Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. Eason had a cannon arm, good accuracy and ball placement, not much athleticism, even less pocket presence, and needed to learn how to throw a touch pass. Ehlinger had a noodle arm, great short and intermediate accuracy, good athleticism, decent pocket presence, and knew how to vary the speed of the balls that his limited arm could throw. These were also developmental QBs drafted in the 4th and 6th rounds, respectively, but what I can gather from it is Ballard definitely values accuracy and ball placement, he probably values arm strength a bit higher than he does athleticism, but I also think he values pocket presence and the ability to escape and make a play pretty highly, because he only drafted Eason in Round 4 despite publicly saying he had a higher grade on him, and he drafted Ehlinger, who most had as undraftable that year. Stroud and Young are pretty even in all of those categories, which is where you get to the physical traits, and Stroud wins out because he's a legitimate 6'3" and Young is an illegitimate 6'0" (I'd be more surprised if his measurement came in at 6'0" than if his measurement came in at 5'9"). I could be completely wrong, but I'd be shocked if the Colts have any interest in any QB that isn't Stroud or Young. Will we hear a lot that that is the case? Probably, but this is draft season. If Ballard said the sky was blue and water was wet, I'd check the veracity of both statements until April 30.

[apballin]

I’ll say the recent path of success in college and showing up in big games, Lawrence, Tua, Hurts, and Burrow seems to be a strong sign of success at the next level so Stroud is on that path… now the question is will he be there at 4? And does Irsay love him or does he want the blue collar gritty guy Levis?

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.

As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.

As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.

Stating that the jury it still out on Hurts is by far one of the dumbest statements ever posted on this board. In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him. It's probably an even dumber statement than you still claiming that the Jagoffs drafting Trevor Lawrence was some giant mistake.

Mayfield and Murray are going to struggle in the NFL b/c of their size (which is why most of us don't want the Colts to draft Young), especially Murray. And to be fair to Mayfield, he's had more success than either of Ryan Day's QBs in the NFL, who are Haskins and Fields. Joe Burrow isn't a Ryan Day QB. He spent 1 season as a backup with Day as his OC. If we're handing out NFL success kudos to QBs college coaches then credit for Burrow needs to go to Ed Orgeron and Steve Ensminger.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him.

Devil's advocate:

Colin Kaepernick was also in his 2nd season starting, 3rd season overall when he led a loaded 49ers team to 12-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl. He got figured out and was 11-24 after that.

Not saying Hurts will follow suit, but interesting.