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Old 01-03-2018, 08:26 AM
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Default Roster Weakness #1 - Pass Rush = Outside Linebacker

Currently on 2018 Roster:

Jabaal Sheard / IND / 29 years old
John Simon / IND / 27 years old
Terell Basham / IND / 24 years old
Jermaine Grace / IND / 24 years old

Potential Free Agents:


Tier A:
Barkevious Mingo / IND / 27 years old
Junior Galette / WAS / 30 years old

Tier B:
Kareem Martin / ARI / 26 years old

The pickings in free agency for OLBs are pretty slim in the under 30 crowd. There is a large match-up of no names and not many stats to pick from. I found a few guys that I like but I am not sure that the best option is to not just re-sign Mingo as a depth guy behind Simon, Sheard and hopefully a top pick rookie.

Mingo had a pretty solid year playing the pass rush better than he played the run. He only sets the edge okay but he does actually cover TEs fairly well when asked to do so and came on as a pass rusher over the last half of the season. He is not whom I want starting since I think Simon does just about everything better than he does (when healthy) but I like him well enough as a depth guy and he showed over the second half of the season that he can give quality minutes of play at an NFL level.

If the Colts actually want someone who is better than Mingo, the only guy who might hit free agency in that category is, IMO, Junior Galette who played for WAS this season after missing both the 2015 season (torn left Achillies) and 2016 season (torn right Achillies) on a low “show me” contract.

Galette was backup to Ryan Kerrigan as a 3-4 OLB[RUSH]. He played a total of 406 snaps (full time defender plays between 800-1000) of which 257 were pass rush snaps. Spotrac is crediting him with 16 sacks + QB Hits (3.0 sacks, 13 hits) for one 1 QB hit for every 16 pass rush snaps which is pretty solid (if someone knows where to find current year “hurries” stats…).

The downside on Galette is that he is 29 years old (turning 30 in March 2018) so may already be over Ballard’s age threshold. He is coming back from 2 lost seasons so he does have less wear & tear on the body than other 30 year old defenders who have been out of college for 8 seasons but he will still be 30 years old for the 2018 season.

Kareem Martin has experience as a 3-4 OLB[EDGE] with ARI and was solid but not great across the board this year. However, he was unable to win much playing time in previous years and was sharing time with rookie Haason Riddick opposite Chandler Jones in their lineup for 2017. He only has 3.5 sacks for his 4 year career to go along with his 42 tackles and appears to be a full-time depth guy but he is honestly the best of the rest. Which is sad. There is virtually no one after those guys who is a 3-4 OLB whom is more than just JAG. Or terrible. This is a very weak free agency class for pass rushers.

I think the best plan is to retain Mingo on a modest 2-year contract for about $3m -$4m each year with the first year guaranteed. He is the type of depth player whom you end up relying on to do a lot of low-profile things on your team (special teams, short yardage packages, extra pass rush packages) and he is experienced enough to understand how to maximize his playing time. I think we could end up doing much worse than Mingo for depth.

I hope that we end up picking pass rush with a 1st or 2nd round draft pick. If we do, then my 2018 depth chart looks like:

OLB[RUSH] = Jabaal Sheard / Rookie Draft Pick (1st or 2nd round)
OLB[EDGE] = John Simon / Barkevious Mingo
OLB Depth = Terell Basham

I know that the Colts ended up with only 25 sacks for the season (2nd lowest in NFL) and my plan would not be making many changes to the depth chart of the guys who should account for the majority of them. However, there is very little that could be done on the free agency market to improve the group (in the under 30 years old crowd) and using multiple high draft picks on OLB when there are so many other holes to fill in 2018 seems fraught with peril.

We have to hope that either a new, different defensive system will be able to bring production with many of the same guys or if Monachino is retained, that his guys play better with another year together. Getting a high pick rookie who can get after the QB will improve the whole group as well since focus would be taken off Sheard (and Simon, and Mingo and everyone below them) in order to focus it on the new threat.

Also, a revamped ILB corps who can cover better (QB has to hold the ball longer) and pursue better (easier to set the edge knowing you have GOOD inside run support) and might even be able to blitz effectively up the middle on occasion will help out this OLB corps a ton as well.

Pass rush as a whole was a weakness for the Colts in 2017. I don’t know that I would say that OLBs as a whole were a weakness but pass rush was. A top end rookie added to the guys we have would put the Colts in a pretty good spot for the group, IMO.

So, in my mind, the question comes down to: Is Bradley Chubb THAT much better a prospect than Arden Key, Harold Landry, Sam Hubbard or Clelin Ferrell? Most of those guys are projected to be selected in the mid to late 1st round allowing the Colts to trade down and collect additional 2nd round and 3rd round draft picks in order to fortify the team across the board. It would be great to be able to add a OLB, ILB, OT and perhaps even one more spot (OG, CB, S, WR) 1st/2nd round draft pick stud in the top 55 picks.

Anyway, bottom line is that there are not many free agents available on par or better than Mingo hitting free agency so I think we should re-sign Mingo, draft a rookie early and move on to trying to fix other parts of the team.

Walk Worthy,
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  #2  
Old 01-03-2018, 11:19 AM
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I posted this in another thread, but it was kind of irrelevant there, so I'm just gonna repost it here. Shaquem Griffin out of UCF is the one I'm high about. I have no idea where he'll be projected to go in the draft, but he'll be a steal, I'm sure.
----
This might be a gamble, but I would like to see another UCF player on this defense: LB Shaquem Griffin.
UCF is the only team I have watched enough to say anything about any college players (cuz that's where I work, and I only live a mile from campus and have been to the games).
But Griffin is reported to be a natural leader, esp in practice. And when you watch him play he passes the eye test, he's fast, has great instinct, sniffs out plays and is in on pretty much every play. Consistently gets pressure on the QB, makes tackles in the open field, sniffs out screen passes. He was a dominant force in the Peach Bowl win vs. Auburn. He's relentless as an edge rusher.
He could be a 1st round pick, maybe 2nd, except for one big thing: he has no left hand!
I think he'll likely fall to the 4th or 5th round because teams aren't gonna want to take a chance on a guy who is challenged on things like wrapping up, catching the ball, basically anything in football where you need 2 hands. But I think he'll be a steal for whoever decides to take him.
Here's one highlight reel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MN6PfGB6eA

Some Peachbowl highlights (his number is 18)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j2fOaUkTpI
At 1:55 you can see Griffin getting into the backfield to disrupt the handoff, results in a fumble return, and Griffin ends up laying a nasty block that springs the return for big yards.
At 2:25 Griffin plows his way past the blocks to get a big sack.
At 3:10, he is slightly held on his edge rush, flushes the QB out of the pocket who then made a great pass
One bad play: at 3:35 he hesitates for some reason and ends up unable to tackle the RB, giving up a TD.
At 5:45, watch Griffin race across the middle to chase down the scrambling QB to make the tackle for short gain.
At 6:10 Griffin speeds past the LT to collapse the pocket, forces the bad throw that results in the game sealing interception.

Here's another highlight reel where you get a nice view on him in pass coverage, even coming up with an interception:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6jFL3W1Z7E
(also lots of forced fumbles and nice spin moves in that clip)

We need this guy!
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Old 01-03-2018, 12:19 PM
YDFL Commish YDFL Commish is offline
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Monachino will not be retained.

Gotta hope for improvement for Basham.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Chubb reminds me of Mario Williams, coming out of college. Are we alright with that?

I would be fine w/Harold Landry in a trade down scenario or trade back into mid to late 1st round scenario.
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Old 01-03-2018, 12:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YDFL Commish View Post
Monachino will not be retained.

Gotta hope for improvement for Basham.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Chubb reminds me of Mario Williams, coming out of college. Are we alright with that?

I would be fine w/Harold Landry in a trade down scenario or trade back into mid to late 1st round scenario.
Mario Williams was very good for a very long time, he just had little around him. I'd be fine with a Mario Williams type player as the cornerstone of the Colts defense.
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i was wrong.
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Old 01-03-2018, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Dam8610 View Post
Mario Williams was very good for a very long time, he just had little around him. I'd be fine with a Mario Williams type player as the cornerstone of the Colts defense.
In "Super Mario's" first 5 years in Houston (year 6 and his last year in HOU he only played in 5 games due to IR), he ended up:

Played in 77 of 80 possible games.
Made 230 tackles (2.98 per game).
Got 48.0 sacks (0.62 per game or 9.97 average per season)
Forced 10 fumbles (2 per season)
Defended 10 passes (2 per season)

Not J.J. Watt numbers but having a guy who averages 10 sacks a season including his rookie season where they typically don't get as many is pretty good.

For comparison, Dwight Freeney in his first 5 seasons:

Played in 79 of 80 possible games.
Made 169 tackles (2.13 per game).
Got 56.5 sacks (0.71 per game or 11.44 average per season)
Forced 26 fumbles (5.1 per season)
Defended 10 passes (2 per season)

Yeah........I loved Freeney.

But, I would take a Mario Williams type guy. Sheard, Simon and Mingo would have a much easier time with a Super Mario type guy taking the focus of the blocking scheme away from them.

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Old 01-03-2018, 03:34 PM
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Two thoughts on the OP:

1) We don't know they'll be a base 3-4 next year. 4-3 DEs are also in play.
2) It takes two to tango. Just because you want to trade down from 1.03 doesn't mean you'll get a good trade offer. IMO, a GM would be foolish to give up significant value to move up to get one of Barkley/Chubb/QB#3.
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Old 01-03-2018, 04:35 PM
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I like Chubb as a player. The more I watch him though I don't think he's an elite pass rush prospect like Myles Garrett, Clowney, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Watt, etc. He's not an athletic freak. He's a good athlete, and he is a high effort player. I will not mind taking him. Guys like Suggs, Jared Allen, Michael Bennett, Demarcus Lawrence, Cam Jordan, are some of the best defenders on the edge in recent history and were not "freaks". But I don't think he's a no brainer at #3.
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Old 01-03-2018, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 View Post
Two thoughts on the OP:

1) We don't know they'll be a base 3-4 next year. 4-3 DEs are also in play.
2) It takes two to tango. Just because you want to trade down from 1.03 doesn't mean you'll get a good trade offer. IMO, a GM would be foolish to give up significant value to move up to get one of Barkley/Chubb/QB#3.
Is ditka still coaching?
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Old 01-03-2018, 04:55 PM
VeveJones007 VeveJones007 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FatDT View Post
I like Chubb as a player. The more I watch him though I don't think he's an elite pass rush prospect like Myles Garrett, Clowney, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Watt, etc. He's not an athletic freak. He's a good athlete, and he is a high effort player. I will not mind taking him. Guys like Suggs, Jared Allen, Michael Bennett, Demarcus Lawrence, Cam Jordan, are some of the best defenders on the edge in recent history and were not "freaks". But I don't think he's a no brainer at #3.
Agree with all of this. I think he's the best option at #3, though I would absolutely trade down if I got a good offer.
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