Denver caught their rainbow

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Other than that, Ballard is not in Polian's league. But that wasn't the discussion.

I just looked at this. Originally I was going to just say that Ballard's 2018 would beat any of Polian's drafts (which it would, 2003 is Polian's best contender), but then I started comparing their draft histories, and I will confidently say that Ballard is better at drafting talent than Polian was, primarily due to Ballard's much greater level of success with Day 2 picks, which Polian had a notoriously bad track record with. I would say let's look at Ballard's best draft, but to do that, you'd have to first choose which is better between 2018 and 2020. For comparison sake:

**** = Made an All-Pro team
*** = Made a Pro Bowl team
** = Starter or starter level contributions
* = quality backup that positively impacted the team

2018
Quenton Nelson****
Shaquille Leonard****
Braden Smith**
Kemoko Turay
Tyquan Lewis*
Nyheim Hines*
Daurice Fountain
Jordan Wilkins
Deon Cain
Matthew Adams
Zaire Franklin**

2020
DeForest Buckner**** (via trade of the 13th overall pick to SF)
Michael Pittman Jr.**
Jonathan Taylor****
Julian Blackmon**
Jacob Eason
Danny Pinter*
Robert Windsor
Isaiah Rodgers**
Dezmon Patmon
Jordan Glasgow

Let's throw 2022 in for fun, because I see that class rivaling these two in a few years, which only speaks to Ballard's drafting acumen:

2022
Alec Pierce**
Jelani Woods*
Bernhard Raimann**
Nick Cross*
Eric Johnson
Andrew Ogletree
Curtis Brooks
Rodney Thomas II**

I would argue all three of the above classes are or have the potential to be better than Polian's best draft class, which IMO is 2003, but I'll post what I believe to be his 3 best draft classes for comparison sake:

2003
Dallas Clark****
Mike Doss**
Donald Strickland
Steve Scuillo
Robert Mathis****
Keyon Whiteside
Cato June***
Makoa Freitas

2006
Joseph Addai***
Tim Jennings***
Freddy Keiaho**
Michael Toudouze
Charlie Johnson**
Antoine Bethea***
T.J. Rushing*

2001
Reggie Wayne****
Idrees Bashir**
Cory Bird
Ryan Diem**
Raymond Walls
Jason Doering*
Rick DeMulling**

If you look at the results side by side, it's scary to think what Chris Ballard might be able to do with a franchise QB and a full array of draft picks every year. Time will tell if Ballard is the better GM, but so far he's outdueling a Hall of Famer in an area both consider to be paramount to team building.

[JAFF]

After the Colts drafted edge, they were winning and drafting at the back end of future drafts, not near front. I give him credit for his work in the late round draft picks,

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I will confidently say that Ballard is better at drafting talent than Polian was, primarily due to Ballard's much greater level of success with Day 2 picks

Good argument. Polian had a killer run of 1st-rounders and built up three franchises, and won EoY awards twice with the Bills, twice with the Panthers, and twice with the Colts. Plus he did it across eras (there were 12 rounds in the draft and no free agency when he was with the Bills, so it was two different monsters).

So that's where I was coming from. But wording probably too strong on my part. I am very happy to have Ballard.

----

Also just an aside, I thought '99 might make Polian's list with James, Mike Peterson, Brad Scioli, and Hunter Smith (I know he's just a punter), but I looked it up...

Mike Peterson never made a Pro Bowl his entire career? Even the year he was 2nd-Team All-Pro, no Pro Bowl. Even Hunter Smith never made a Pro Bowl which surprised me.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I just looked at this. Originally I was going to just say that Ballard's 2018 would beat any of Polian's drafts (which it would, 2003 is Polian's best contender), but then I started comparing their draft histories, and I will confidently say that Ballard is better at drafting talent than Polian was, primarily due to Ballard's much greater level of success with Day 2 picks, which Polian had a notoriously bad track record with. I would say let's look at Ballard's best draft, but to do that, you'd have to first choose which is better between 2018 and 2020. For comparison sake:

**** = Made an All-Pro team
*** = Made a Pro Bowl team
** = Starter or starter level contributions
* = quality backup that positively impacted the team

2018
Quenton Nelson****
Shaquille Leonard****
Braden Smith**
Kemoko Turay
Tyquan Lewis*
Nyheim Hines*
Daurice Fountain
Jordan Wilkins
Deon Cain
Matthew Adams
Zaire Franklin**

2020
DeForest Buckner**** (via trade of the 13th overall pick to SF)
Michael Pittman Jr.**
Jonathan Taylor****
Julian Blackmon**
Jacob Eason
Danny Pinter*
Robert Windsor
Isaiah Rodgers**
Dezmon Patmon
Jordan Glasgow

Let's throw 2022 in for fun, because I see that class rivaling these two in a few years, which only speaks to Ballard's drafting acumen:

2022
Alec Pierce**
Jelani Woods*
Bernhard Raimann**
Nick Cross*
Eric Johnson
Andrew Ogletree
Curtis Brooks
Rodney Thomas II**

I would argue all three of the above classes are or have the potential to be better than Polian's best draft class, which IMO is 2003, but I'll post what I believe to be his 3 best draft classes for comparison sake:

2003
Dallas Clark****
Mike Doss**
Donald Strickland
Steve Scuillo
Robert Mathis****
Keyon Whiteside
Cato June***
Makoa Freitas

2006
Joseph Addai***
Tim Jennings***
Freddy Keiaho**
Michael Toudouze
Charlie Johnson**
Antoine Bethea***
T.J. Rushing*

2001
Reggie Wayne****
Idrees Bashir**
Cory Bird
Ryan Diem**
Raymond Walls
Jason Doering*
Rick DeMulling**

If you look at the results side by side, it's scary to think what Chris Ballard might be able to do with a franchise QB and a full array of draft picks every year. Time will tell if Ballard is the better GM, but so far he's outdueling a Hall of Famer in an area both consider to be paramount to team building.

Ballard drafts well and certainly finds value a specific positions. Few, if any of us, have said otherwise. The problem is his roster construction. He has overvalued and spent too much draft capital and cap dollars at positions that aren't that critical for success, like OG and off ball LBs. And other than DE, which he's been horrible at drafting BTW, he has undervalued the CTQ positions by spending minimal draft capital and salary cap dollars at those positions. This is how things like having a LG making elite LT money is starting next to a complete turd at LT, or having a 1 man show at WR. How has that worked out the past 2 seasons?

Also, you do realize when Ballard hasn't had a full array of draft picks it's b/c he's traded them away right?

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Good argument. Polian had a killer run of 1st-rounders and built up three franchises, and won EoY awards twice with the Bills, twice with the Panthers, and twice with the Colts. Plus he did it across eras (there were 12 rounds in the draft and no free agency when he was with the Bills, so it was two different monsters).

So that's where I was coming from. But wording probably too strong on my part. I am very happy to have Ballard.

----

Also just an aside, I thought '99 might make Polian's list with James, Mike Peterson, Brad Scioli, and Hunter Smith (I know he's just a punter), but I looked it up...

Mike Peterson never made a Pro Bowl his entire career? Even the year he was 2nd-Team All-Pro, no Pro Bowl. Even Hunter Smith never made a Pro Bowl which surprised me.

I considered 1999, 2002, 2004, and 2005 (which just illustrates how good Polian was consistently in the draft), but ultimately 2001 made the cut over those years because it had an All-Pro and likely Hall of Famer in Reggie Wayne, two long term quality OL starters in Ryan Diem and Rick DeMulling, another decent starter in Idrees Bashir, and a quality backup in Jason Doering. 4 starters beats 3, especially when one of those "starters" is a punter.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Ballard drafts well and certainly finds value a specific positions. Few, if any of us, have said otherwise. The problem is his roster construction. He has overvalued and spent too much draft capital and cap dollars at positions that aren't that critical for success, like OG and off ball LBs. And other than DE, which he's been horrible at drafting BTW, he has undervalued the CTQ positions by spending minimal draft capital and salary cap dollars at those positions. This is how things like having a LG making elite LT money is starting next to a complete turd at LT, or having a 1 man show at WR. How has that worked out the past 2 seasons?

Also, you do realize when Ballard hasn't had a full array of draft picks it's b/c he's traded them away right?

I would say Ballard's worst flaw is his evaluation of DE/ED talent, which is why I believe it is so important to retain Yannick Ngakoue. Given his weakness there, he should probably focus on filling that position through free agency or trade. I also agree with the overinvestment in non-premium positions, it's what prompted my idea of trading 4, Taylor, and Leonard for 1. That said, I don't think he has been unwilling to invest in the premium positions, he just hasn't really found them until recently. He did give Braden Smith one of the largest RT contracts in the league. He's probably going to extend MPJ. I imagine if they continue down good development paths the next few seasons, he'll extend Raimann and Pierce. As for QB, he hasn't had one to extend yet, not since Luck retired. That's why getting the choice guy this year (which IMO will be Stroud) is so important. If Ballard can't do that, it doesn't matter how good he is at everything else, unfortunately, because winning football in the modern NFL requires a franchise QB.

As for Ballard trading away picks, the only truly bad trade he's made involving picks is the Wentz trade, and that's primarily because the Colts didn't make the decision to mitigate their losses and only give up a 2 once they figured out Wentz wasn't the guy. The other time Ballard traded his 1, for DeForest Buckner, I'd argue Buckner is better than anyone the Colts could've gotten at 13.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by JAFF

After the Colts drafted edge, they were winning and drafting at the back end of future drafts, not near front. I give him credit for his work in the late round draft picks,

Ballard had a better draft in 2022 than most of Polian's drafts without a first round pick.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Good argument. Polian had a killer run of 1st-rounders and built up three franchises, and won EoY awards twice with the Bills, twice with the Panthers, and twice with the Colts. Plus he did it across eras (there were 12 rounds in the draft and no free agency when he was with the Bills, so it was two different monsters).

So that's where I was coming from. But wording probably too strong on my part. I am very happy to have Ballard.

----

Also just an aside, I thought '99 might make Polian's list with James, Mike Peterson, Brad Scioli, and Hunter Smith (I know he's just a punter), but I looked it up...

Mike Peterson never made a Pro Bowl his entire career? Even the year he was 2nd-Team All-Pro, no Pro Bowl. Even Hunter Smith never made a Pro Bowl which surprised me.

The Colts didnt punt often enough to make it an issue. He was the fastest punter, ask Deon Sanders.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

So what's the point in bringing in QBs like Rivers, Wentz, and Ryan then? Using your logic then they've been a waste of cap dollars and in Wentz and Ryan's cases draft capitol as well.

There was no point to sign Rivers or trade for Ryan if you weren’t going to couple it with going in on a 1-2 yr window. Well other than selling tickets I guess. I understand Wentz slightly more in that you can argue if it worked you had multiple seasons with him in the future. Not surprisingly I disagree with that philosophy, but I understand the logic at least. Rivers are Ryan were known short term options that were just place holders in the long build.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I considered 1999, 2002, 2004, and 2005 (which just illustrates how good Polian was consistently in the draft), but ultimately 2001 made the cut over those years because it had an All-Pro and likely Hall of Famer in Reggie Wayne, two long term quality OL starters in Ryan Diem and Rick DeMulling, another decent starter in Idrees Bashir, and a quality backup in Jason Doering. 4 starters beats 3, especially when one of those "starters" is a punter.



I would say Ballard's worst flaw is his evaluation of DE/ED talent, which is why I believe it is so important to retain Yannick Ngakoue. Given his weakness there, he should probably focus on filling that position through free agency or trade. I also agree with the overinvestment in non-premium positions, it's what prompted my idea of trading 4, Taylor, and Leonard for 1. That said, I don't think he has been unwilling to invest in the premium positions, he just hasn't really found them until recently. He did give Braden Smith one of the largest RT contracts in the league. He's probably going to extend MPJ. I imagine if they continue down good development paths the next few seasons, he'll extend Raimann and Pierce. As for QB, he hasn't had one to extend yet, not since Luck retired. That's why getting the choice guy this year (which IMO will be Stroud) is so important. If Ballard can't do that, it doesn't matter how good he is at everything else, unfortunately, because winning football in the modern NFL requires a franchise QB.

As for Ballard trading away picks, the only truly bad trade he's made involving picks is the Wentz trade, and that's primarily because the Colts didn't make the decision to mitigate their losses and only give up a 2 once they figured out Wentz wasn't the guy. The other time Ballard traded his 1, for DeForest Buckner, I'd argue Buckner is better than anyone the Colts could've gotten at 13.

My lack of valuing the premium positions comment is mainly based on Ballard's lack of investment at WR (in 6 years the only real investment he's put into the position is 2 2nd round draft picks) and his handling of the LT situation which up to this point has been a disaster. Hopefully Raimann pans out and rights the ship there. But even if he does it was still at least a big short term fuck up that Ballard could have avoided.

Ballard also traded out of the 1st round in '19, which next to '17 is probably his worst draft. Agree on Buckner and Wentz trades. You just made it sound like Ballard's hands have been tied a bit b/c he hasn't had a full allotment of picks frequently, so I wanted to point out that it was his doing.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Ballard had a better draft in 2022 than most of Polian's drafts without a first round pick.

You could maybe make the argument for 2020, but you're definitely counting your chickens way before they've hatched for the '22 draft class in that statement.