Draft position update.

[DrSpaceman]

Originally Posted by sherck

There are 2 lines of thought on how to improve a team the fastest:

1. Reinforce a strength to make it a true force.
2. Strengthen a weakness to bring it up to at least average.

Polian choose to follow #1 all during the 2000s by continuing to reinforce the offense around Peyton. It led to great regular season success and 1 Super Bowl but left a defense that was always struggling unless put in the perfect position (big lead in the 2nd half against a team inclined to pass to catch up).

Personally, I want to have a team that gets to at least "average" at all parts of the team and then can use or add the select rainmaker as BPA to bring that part of the team up to superior levels.

Right now, the D-Line is at least average if not a bit above it. Not a ton above it but a bit above it. Hankins, Woods, Anderson, Hunt, Ridgeway and Stewart are a good rotation and has had success this year; especially against the run early in games.

The downside is that their good play masks the dreadful play of our ILBs early in games but once our D-Line starts getting worn down as the game goes on (since we typically are losing the ToP stat and we are behind so that the other team can focus running the ball), the lack of quality ILBs starts allowing opposing offenses to gash us in the running game where they start rolling up the yards.

I like our D-Line right now. Our Pass Rush, ILB and O-Line are the glaring areas of our team that are not at least NFL average. I will be pretty pissed if our 1st round pick is at any other position than those.

Walk Worthy,

Agree with all that

Plus the offense this year is not good and cannot sustain drives, which plays into the TOP equation and time the D is on the field as well.

The DL is much improved this year vs prior years. Teams are not longer able to run straight up the middle on the D.

Once they go off tackle or outside though, the D still can't stop them

Also the LBers can't cover anyone in the passing game

I don't think the secondary as a whole is even too bad when healthy and they would be OK if there was a decent pass rush.

I'd be fine with a first round pick at linebacker for a pass rusher, but OL is also a big problem and needs addressed just as bad.

Ideal situation with a top 3 pick, which seems likely, is you trade down in the first round for more picks and get both

[VeveJones007]

Houston and SF are still dangerously close on SOS. May need to lose next week to stay in 2-3 range.

[falloutboy14]

I doubt the Texans could make up much ground. We play the same exact teams. Lots of similar teams with the 49ers too.

[Brylok]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Houston and SF are still dangerously close on SOS. May need to lose next week to stay in 2-3 range.

Don't worry, we'll lose to Houston. Making backup QBs look great is one of the hallmarks of the Pagano era.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by falloutboy14

I doubt the Texans could make up much ground. We play the same exact teams. Lots of similar teams with the 49ers too.

True. It’s probably over 90% that the Colts are locked into the top 3.

[FatDT]

We're pretty well locked into the third pick at worst aren't we?

[falloutboy14]

The 2nd pick is still possible. But we've got a significant lead in strength of schedule on the Texans and 49ers. I doubt a big swing could happen in 2 weeks. Especially since most of our opponents are common with the other teams.

There is an advantage in staying 3 wins as in later rounds we won't rotate spots though.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by FatDT

We're pretty well locked into the third pick at worst aren't we?

Our SOS is weaker than any other 4 win team. The below SOS even includes the Baltimore game for us which strengthened our SOS from previous so we are still weaker than any 4 win team.

Even with a win against Houston in week 17, I think it will be difficult to not be considered the weakest of the 4 win teams and still earn the #3 spot.

1 / CLE / 0-14 / 0.515
2 / NYG / 2-12 / 0.527
3 / IND / 3-12 / 0.489
4 / CLE / 4-10 / 0.502 (pick is Houston's)
5 / SF.../ 4-10 / 0.511
6 / CHI / 4-10 / 0.559
7 / TB../ 4-10 / 0.562

Walk Worthy,

[sherck]

Originally Posted by falloutboy14

The 2nd pick is still possible.

Yes. All that has to happen is for the NYG to win one of their last two games and tie us at 3 wins (assuming we can manage to lose to the Texans in week 17).

At that point, their SOS will be stronger than ours and we will get the #2 overall pick.

We would then trade back and forth between the 2nd and 3rd picks of the round with NYG in later rounds but, whatever.

Root for a Manning! Go Eli!

Walk Worthy,

[FatDT]

Originally Posted by sherck

Our SOS is weaker than any other 4 win team. The below SOS even includes the Baltimore game for us which strengthened our SOS from previous so we are still weaker than any 4 win team.

Even with a win against Houston in week 17, I think it will be difficult to not be considered the weakest of the 4 win teams and still earn the #3 spot.

1 / CLE / 0-14 / 0.515
2 / NYG / 2-12 / 0.527
3 / IND / 3-12 / 0.489
4 / CLE / 4-10 / 0.502 (pick is Houston's)
5 / SF.../ 4-10 / 0.511
6 / CHI / 4-10 / 0.559
7 / TB../ 4-10 / 0.562

Walk Worthy,

Even if we do beat the Texans their own poor record would just further contribute to our low strength of schedule. Third overall seems guaranteed. It’s not ridiculous to think the Giants could beat AZ or WAS, either.