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  #211  
Old 06-10-2019, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Butter View Post
Considering I am referring to cap space and the cash floor it has nothing to do with this year since the space rolls over and nothing is lost if spent next season.
Except maybe some games. Or a championship
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  #212  
Old 06-10-2019, 12:26 PM
YDFL Commish YDFL Commish is offline
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Originally Posted by IndyNorm View Post
Houston did get a nice chuck of upfront money, but what makes his deal reasonable IMO is that his 2nd year only has $1M guaranteed. So if he doesn't produce in year 1 we can release him with no long term implications.

With Funchess I don't disagree with bringing him in, but we definitely overpaid for a 1 year rental. Especially on a player with below average production who really regressed this last year. If we had signed him to a similar contract to Ebron's then that would have made a lot more sense.
Funchess had an overrated QB with a bum shoulder throwing to him. I'm predicting 60+ catches and 10+ TD's.
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  #213  
Old 06-10-2019, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by omahacolt View Post
Except maybe some games. Or a championship
I understand your point, except that I was not upset with any of our non-signings. Who exactly should we have signed to get that championship? I would like to point out that although we didn't spend much money in free agency last year I would say that we had maybe the best free agent haul of anyone. My guess is that we do very well, production wise, this year also In veteran pick ups (pretty much free) of guys like Glowinski/Moore (I know not last year) Ballard has found excellent players on the cheap consistantly. To me that means more than spending the most money. He knows what he is doing.
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Nelson a steal at 6
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  #214  
Old 06-10-2019, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Oldcolt View Post
I understand your point, except that I was not upset with any of our non-signings. Who exactly should we have signed to get that championship? I would like to point out that although we didn't spend much money in free agency last year I would say that we had maybe the best free agent haul of anyone. My guess is that we do very well, production wise, this year also In veteran pick ups (pretty much free) of guys like Glowinski/Moore (I know not last year) Ballard has found excellent players on the cheap consistantly. To me that means more than spending the most money. He knows what he is doing.
And, the Colts kept some guys who played well, like Desir. They spent money on the punter, on Glowinski. Sometimes it's not who you bring in, but who you keep.
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  #215  
Old 06-10-2019, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
Don’t try to innovate or try any different approaches? .........That’s ridiculous. There’s plenty of room for innovating everywhere, the NFL included.
I have absolutely no idea wtf you are ranting about.

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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
You’ve already been proven wrong after you argued last year that Ballard’s approach would lead us into 2-3 years of obscurity. So we had a few holes or weaknesses – what team doesn’t, particularly coming from where we did the year before? I notice you didn’t bring up the OL or the DBs – areas that I’m guessing (but can't recall specifically as I sit here) you were critical of last offseason.
My argument has been Ballard’s approach was a 3-4 yr rebuild until they were pushing for a title and I didn’t (still don’t) believe that time line is necessary with a franchise QB, loads of cap space, and the #3 pick in the draft. I typed more but deleted it. Post is to long.

As far as the OL and DBs, I didn’t complain about the OL going into last year. I didn’t like the value of Nelson at 6 but I never said the line wouldn’t be improved/ good. I was not impressed with the roster at LB, DB, WR, or DL last year. Considering the moves this offseason it seems Ballard wasn’t that impressed either. And yes I still believe the DL would be in better shape with Haskins.


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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
Regarding my casino analogy and the “Moneyball BS”, it’s obvious you don’t fully grasp those examples. Because “mathematical statistics” were involved in those examples, you think the underlying principles don’t have any application here.
I grasp them and I have no issue with their use as part of a larger scheme. I have an issue with their use as THE underlying principle driving team building. To my knowledge Moneyball has provided a better return on investment as far as wins goes, but it has not won a title. And the big exception I take to your BS “that’s what the casino industry is built on” comment is that you state it as if NFL roster building has the same defined, unbreakable statistics behind it that the casino industry does. They don’t. Not even fucking close.

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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
As for the purported hopelessness of trying to become a long term winner in the NFL, despite your suggestion otherwise teams have been doing that since the outset of the league.
I don’t think you read what you respond to. I think you are so quick to get your reply out you take no time to comprehend what anyone is saying.

A long term winner? Yes I believe Ballard will build it. I’ve said that multiple times over the last 2 years. And in the answer you replied to I referenced the Polian Colts as being what I believe the best case scenario is. I’d say that’s a long term winner and achievable. It’s the dynasty part of your rants that I believe is not achievable. At least not in the way you suggest it.

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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
But you don’t do that by acting like every other team – you need to find inefficiencies and exploit them. That’s what the Colts are trying to do.
I’m not really sure how hoarding $50m+ in cap space is exploiting other teams weaknesses. I’ll take your word for it though. I do know what it looks like to see an opponent exploit the Colts weaknesses on the field. I just hope the Colts cap-space exploitation generates more points in the playoffs than their opponents on the field exploitation.

Last edited by rm1369; 06-10-2019 at 04:32 PM.
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  #216  
Old 06-10-2019, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by YDFL Commish View Post
Funchess had an overrated QB with a bum shoulder throwing to him. I'm predicting 60+ catches and 10+ TD's.
Cam isn't that bad. Those numbers would supercede Funchess' best season ever. I hope the guy does well and he isn't another Aiken or Grant. But man, I don't like his stats. He hovers around the 55% catch rate the last two years, which is much lower than Ebron. His 4 year average is 50% (although rookie years are not always fair to include). He got outplayed by a rookie last year in DJ Moore, who reminds me a lot of Cambell. Got benched at the end of the year. Then his fight the other day.

He could be an asset in goal line, with two TE's and Hilton. That would give us a lot of height in the redzone for Luck to find. His TD numbers could be pretty good. People want to compare him to the Ebron signing but I see Ebron as having better numbers and a former QB who throws a notoriously hard ball that is not the easierst to catch. I see him more like Philly's Alshon Jeffrey. Alshon has had up and down hands with numbers in the range you mention. You can see why Reich pushed for him. Jeffrey got roasted for his drop at New Orleans which ended their season. It is not easy to suddenly build chemistry with your QB in one off-season, that takes time and reps.

Still I think he is a stop gap with the suddenly in vogue one year contract. I think they are hoping one of the draft picks will step up by next season. They may talk resigning if he does really well, especially if the draft picks underperform. I don't see ten million in value though. Is he that much better than Inman?

Last edited by Chromeburn; 06-10-2019 at 04:39 PM.
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  #217  
Old 06-10-2019, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Oldcolt View Post
I understand your point, except that I was not upset with any of our non-signings. Who exactly should we have signed to get that championship? I would like to point out that although we didn't spend much money in free agency last year I would say that we had maybe the best free agent haul of anyone. My guess is that we do very well, production wise, this year also In veteran pick ups (pretty much free) of guys like Glowinski/Moore (I know not last year) Ballard has found excellent players on the cheap consistantly. To me that means more than spending the most money. He knows what he is doing.
John Simon made a key play in the Superbowl, think NE is glad they picked him up? You can't predict who would give you a championship. That's why you try to round your roster out the best you can. McCoy was a free agent that fit exactly what we like to run on D. We don't have a lot of high end talent on the line. McCoy hasn't had less than 5 sacks the last seven seasons. I don't blame him for going to the Panthers, that line is absolutely stacked now, then you have Kuechly roaming behind them. But our line is not a strength, and I find that odd considering how much Ballard preaches about the lines. Looks like we are moving forward with what we have. But we had an opportunity, motive, and means. I hope we won't regret it.
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  #218  
Old 06-10-2019, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
Those are all fair and reasonable points. Iím still not sure about Houstonís guarantees, however. According to Spotrac, heís guaranteed $18.5M over two years, with a total contract of $23M. Included within this are the so-called ďroster bonusesĒ of $13M for 2019 and $1M for 2020.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianap...-houston-7789/

Dam had it out with me a month or two ago about these bonuses (specifically the $1M bonus in 2020) and whether it is actually guaranteed, but other than the fact that itís labeled ďroster bonusĒ I donít see anywhere to suggest that this isnít fully guaranteed. I realize the term "roster bonus" implies otherwise, but according to Spotrac, his contract would have a dead cap value of $18.5 million if we cut him, so that appears to include both the 2020 roster bonus and the $3.5 million of the 2020 contract.

Ultimately, we'd have to see the actual contract to resolve this dispute, but until then I'll go with Spotrac.
I was going off Over the Cap's numbers on his contract, which shows only $1M guaranteed next year.

https://overthecap.com/player/justin-houston/517/

If he is indeed guaranteed $4.5M next year it's not as reasonable as I thought, but still not bad since it won't hurt us long term if we release him prior to '20.
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  #219  
Old 06-11-2019, 02:39 AM
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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
I have absolutely no idea wtf you are ranting about.
Really? You honestly have no idea what I was referring to? My so-called “rant” is in response to your statement that the NFL rules are set up specifically stop teams from long term dominance, ranging “from free agency, to the salary cap, to the draft, to even the small variation in scheduling”, and that it's a “fool’s errand’ to try to resist these forces. And please don’t try to tell me you were only talking about the draft, because that just wouldn’t make any sense from the language you used.

While I’d agree that the purpose behind some parts of the rules you’ve referred is just as you say it is (to encourage competitiveness), it’s absurd to suggest that you can’t (or shouldn’t try to) beat those rules by innovating around them.


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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
My argument has been Ballard’s approach was a 3-4 yr rebuild until they were pushing for a title and I didn’t (still don’t) believe that time line is necessary with a franchise QB, loads of cap space, and the #3 pick in the draft. I typed more but deleted it. Post is to long.

As far as the OL and DBs, I didn’t complain about the OL going into last year. I didn’t like the value of Nelson at 6 but I never said the line wouldn’t be improved/ good. I was not impressed with the roster at LB, DB, WR, or DL last year. Considering the moves this offseason it seems Ballard wasn’t that impressed either. And yes I still believe the DL would be in better shape with Haskins.
Whatever dude. I’ll take you at your word. And if you’re implying that my posts are too long (and I assume you are), then I’d invite you please stop reading them.

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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
I grasp them and I have no issue with their use as part of a larger scheme. I have an issue with their use as THE underlying principle driving team building. To my knowledge Moneyball has provided a better return on investment as far as wins goes, but it has not won a title. And the big exception I take to your BS “that’s what the casino industry is built on” comment is that you state it as if NFL roster building has the same defined, unbreakable statistics behind it that the casino industry does. They don’t. Not even fucking close.
And enough with the moving target stuff. You and that Chromeburn dude are the same – I answer your argument, and then you act indignant and pretend that your argument was something else all along. To recap: You criticized my analogy to the casino industry since it apparently confused you, so I spoon fed it to you so you would understand better, and now you say that you really understood it the whole time and that your problem is with the application of those principles in the NFL. You also injected Moneyball into the discussion.

As to this latter issue, you are looking at the “Moneyball” example far too narrowly. While it’s true the A’s didn’t win the World Series, you ignore the more important and far more telling fact that now virtually every team has adjusted its practices in response and adopted some form of increased statistical analysis to try and take away/reduce the edge the A’s had identified and exploited. That’s all the proof you need.


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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
I don’t think you read what you respond to. I think you are so quick to get your reply out you take no time to comprehend what anyone is saying.

A long term winner? Yes I believe Ballard will build it. I’ve said that multiple times over the last 2 years. And in the answer you replied to I referenced the Polian Colts as being what I believe the best case scenario is. I’d say that’s a long term winner and achievable. It’s the dynasty part of your rants that I believe is not achievable. At least not in the way you suggest it.
Oh, I get it now. I must have misread your original post. So you’re saying the rules you’ve referred to are set up to allow a team to enjoy a long period of winning like the Manning-led Colts, but to discourage multiple Super Bowl dynasties? Wait a minute...how exactly do all these rules you’re referring to encourage one, but prevent the other again?

The Manning-led Colts could (and perhaps should) have have won multiple Super Bowls – it wasn’t the salary cap that prevented them from doing so.


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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
I’m not really sure how hoarding $50m+ in cap space is exploiting other teams weaknesses. I’ll take your word for it though. I do know what it looks like to see an opponent exploit the Colts weaknesses on the field. I just hope the Colts cap-space exploitation generates more points in the playoffs than their opponents on the field exploitation.
Now it’s my turn – WTF are you talking about here? I’m talking about inefficiencies in the system and rules, not on field weaknesses. Perhaps you are so quick to get your reply out you take no time to comprehend what anyone is saying. Either that, or you’re just being a garden variety asshole.
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  #220  
Old 06-11-2019, 11:17 AM
rm1369 rm1369 is offline
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Jesus fucking Christ man itís like arguing with my 6 yr old. You make whatever fucking argument you want to make regardless of what anyone has said.


Here is my statement on analytics, ďMoneyballĒ, and your comment about the foundation of the Casino industry:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post

I grasp them and I have no issue with their use as part of a larger scheme. I have an issue with their use as THE underlying principle driving team building. To my knowledge Moneyball has provided a better return on investment as far as wins goes, but it has not won a title. And the big exception I take to your BS ďthatís what the casino industry is built onĒ comment is that you state it as if NFL roster building has the same defined, unbreakable statistics behind it that the casino industry does. They donít. Not even fucking close.
To anyone with even a little fucking reading comprehension it should be clear that I donít have an issue with the use of analytics as PART of a roster building / management philosophy, I have an issue with it being THE deciding factor in every decision. In the context of this whole conversation it means I have an issue with the focus being on getting a bargain instead improving the product on the field. But weíll come back to that. Before you start ranting off in some other direction letís look at your response to that quote:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaka View Post

And enough with the moving target stuff. You and that Chromeburn dude are the same Ė I answer your argument, and then you act indignant and pretend that your argument was something else all along. To recap: You criticized my analogy to the casino industry since it apparently confused you, so I spoon fed it to you so you would understand better, and now you say that you really understood it the whole time and that your problem is with the application of those principles in the NFL. You also injected Moneyball into the discussion.

As to this latter issue, you are looking at the ďMoneyballĒ example far too narrowly. While itís true the Aís didnít win the World Series, you ignore the more important and far more telling fact that now virtually every team has adjusted its practices in response and adopted some form of increased statistical analysis to try and take away/reduce the edge the Aís had identified and exploited. Thatís all the proof you need.
So to begin with I was too stupid to understand your analogy because I believe itís ridiculous? Ok. Then you boil it down to everyone uses analytics so my point is obviously wrong. Wtf man? Take a god damn reading comprehension class. Seriously.


Here is your analogy:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaka View Post
In my view, if you constantly and effectively play the angles and percentages, youíll inevitably emerge on top. The entire casino industry is founded on a similar principle.

So, as I stated, I had an issue with the analogy because I see no comparison between the guaranteed long term return the casino sees and the ďbetter guessĒ return that analytics provides in football. Especially in the context you provide them. Not to mention the casinos advantage is driven and realized by time. They donít need to win at any specific point. They will get their return eventually. Winning a Super Bowl is not in anyway similar. The Polian led Colts won more games in whatever long period than any other team and they won one Super Bowl. I loved those teams, but to me they were ultimately a disappointment from what they should have been. Being really good for the long term does not itself lead to Super Bowl wins.

Being cumulatively 3% or 6% better than any other team for the next decade should not be the goal (as it is for the casino). Being the best team team in a given year should be the goal. Yes you want to have as many of those opportunities to be the best team as you can, but there is always going to be a trade off between this year and the future. You have a finite amount or resources. Dedicating those resources to the future comes at a cost to the present. It is a balancing act all teams deal with.

And that is the point of the whole fucking argument. I take exception to the constant pushing of resources to the future at the expense of the present. In my view the league is so damn competitive that you have to pick smaller windows to make your push to be the best. You have to sacrifice some tomorrow for today or it will be extremely difficult to be the best in any given year where other teams are doing just that. You donít counter that argument in anyway, you tell me Iím to fucking stupid to see the dynasty that Ballard is so obviously building.

You donít at all care to understand or counter someoneís argument. You simply make up what you think or want their argument to be and argue against that. If someone points out thatís not their point you accuse them of moving the goal posts. Or you simply tell them they are to stupid to understand yours.

Oh, and no me saying I deleted part of my post because it was to long wasnít a dig at you. Surprisingly it meant exactly what it said - I typed more out about that topic (the 3-4 yr rebuild) and deleted it because I thought it was to long. Iím not surprised you read into it something that wasnít there. You do with every post that isnít sucking Ballardís dick or acknowledging the obvious coming dynasty.

Iím done with this conversation. Feel free to continue arguing with yourself. Youíve essentially been doing that for several posts now anyway.
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