Draft 2021

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

No love for Hagler?

Marvelous Marvin? He was a good one, but wrong sport.

[CanuckColt]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

No love for Hagler?

NO.
There's only one Marvin for us, and his last name is Harrison.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

Marvelous Marvin? He was a good one, but wrong sport.

Tyjuan Hagler

[Dam8610]

I thought about creating a separate positional rankings thread for the 2021 NFL Draft, but I don't know that anyone else is crazy enough to have invested too many hours of their time for no payoff other than forming their own opinions about draft prospects. Anyway, I wanted to put a couple of my own (admittedly somewhat fluid) positional rankings out there. These are in no way comprehensive (for example, I've only watched the top 5 QBs. I have no opinion on Kellen Mond at present), just my rankings based on who I've watched along with analysis. I'm only doing QB and OT for now (and only QB in this post), as those are the two positions I've watched the most (I might do DE/Edge at some point, but I haven't watched enough players at the position yet to form a cogent ranking. If I find time to watch 5-10 more players between now and the draft, maybe, but that's unlikely), and I'm also going to include a section on what I value at these positions, so that hopefully my rankings make more sense. For example, my ranking of Trevor Lawrence is entirely about what I value in QBs, and I could certainly see why another person who values different attributes might rank him differently. So, without further ado:

Positional Rankings

QB
What I value at QB: Accuracy, anticipation throws, and ball placement are the top 3 traits for a QB to be successful in the NFL in my opinion. Accuracy is about the QB delivering a catchable ball on any given throw. Anticipation throws are about throwing the ball when the QB sees an indicator that his receiver is going to be open in a window, trusting his receiver to get open in that window, and starting the throw to that window 1-2 seconds before the receiver actually comes open. Ball placement is about the QB throwing the ball where the receiver is the only player who can make a play on the ball. If he doesn't get it, no one will. I also highly value the ability to make plays off-script, especially when that ability primarily translates into chunk pass plays, or turning potentially negative pass plays into positive ones. This is the ability of the QB to, when the play breaks down, use his athleticism and pocket mobility to buy time, allow his receivers to come open, and make throws that in some cases are very difficult to make, but result in positive plays for the offense. These are the plays that frustrate and demoralize an opposing defense. Finally, I like athleticism in a QB, but I view running frequently as a QB as a negative trait. The reasons are twofold: first, this behavior significantly increases the chance of injury, thereby likely decreasing the career length of the QB in question, and second, a QB who runs frequently is likely a QB who isn't going through all of his progressions and is bailing out on a play at the first sign of trouble. That second point is a recipe for long term failure in the NFL.

Rankings
1) Zach Wilson, BYU: I believe that Wilson has Patrick Mahomes level potential, but is also more NFL ready today than Mahomes was in 2017. I also believe he is going to a Jets team that currently has a lot of building blocks in place and is going to add 4 top 100 players in this draft outside of Wilson. Put on tape of Zach Wilson, and you will see a clinic in the positive traits I listed above. He is incredibly accurate, displays good anticipation, and has great ball placement, especially on deep throws. In that tape you will also see him frequently facing pressure, having to adapt, and make off script throws, and typically he makes this look easy. The biggest negatives I see in him are that sometimes he'll get too cute trying to make off-script plays, such as trying to do the no-look pass stuff (I don't even like when Mahomes does that, but it's hard to argue with results), and at times he trusts his arm too much and tries to fit balls into very tight windows (though this works out more often than not, so, again, hard to argue with results). Barring injury, I see Wilson's ceiling as a top 10 NFL starting QB, with a floor of a high quality backup.

2) Mac Jones, Alabama: Considering the current rumors about the third overall pick, it seems that perhaps Kyle Shanahan is seeing what I'm seeing here. The 49ers are currently the best situation for a rookie QB to walk into, and if they select Mac Jones, I believe he will look like the best of the bunch in 2021 because of this. Mac Jones is the most pro ready QB I've seen since Andrew Luck. His accuracy and ball placement rivals Joe Burrow's (who didn't get knocked for playing with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Terrance Marshall, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), and his anticipation is by far the best I've ever seen from a college QB. He's on par with high end NFL veteran starting QBs in anticipation throws. The common knocks on him include surrounding talent (see notes on Joe Burrow above), arm strength and athleticism. Regarding the latter two, I see this as an opportunity rather than a weakness. Jones's pocket mobility is sufficient for when a play breaks down, he can make off-script plays and keep his offense moving, but it is very clear that he did not, as of the night of the national championship game, have an NFL body. To me, this means that he performed at a near optimal level with suboptimal conditioning. Putting him in an NFL strength and conditioning program is an opportunity to give him the arm strength and perhaps even some of the athleticism he lacks, which could even make him better than Wilson. With Jones, I see the floor as a #20-25 NFL starting QB with the ceiling being Top 10 starting NFL QB, barring injury of course.

3) Justin Fields, OSU: Justin Fields is a high upside talent with a high bust factor (a common theme of he and the next 2 QBs). Unfortunately at the present time, it's very unclear where he will end up, which makes it harder to project him as a player, as situation is a very important factor. Fields typically displays good accuracy and good ball placement, but struggles at times with anticipation and can be fooled by disguises from a defense (see: Indiana tape). Fields's athleticism is off the charts, and his ability to make off-script plays is very good, but too often he does it by becoming a runner, which creates a much higher injury risk as a concern. I think Fields will come much closer to ceiling than floor with a good developmental coaching staff and a redshirt year. In my opinion, Fields's floor is out of the league in 4 years, and his ceiling is Top 10 NFL starting QB.

4) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: This is likely to be the most controversial of my rankings, but I will stand by it whether he hits ceiling or not. I've watched A LOT of Clemson tape to come to this conclusion, and the problem I have with the projections I see of Lawrence is that I see an incredibly significant bust factor in him for which I don't think people are accounting. Quite honestly, of the three traits I listed that were most important in my evaluation, for me Lawrence was lacking in both accuracy and anticipation, and possibly above average in ball placement. He missed open receivers and missed open windows far too often because he wasn't starting the throw at the right time, he wasn't putting the ball in the right place, or he was throwing to the wrong read. Lawrence's anticipation is awful at present, and to me, he is much more of an example of benefiting from talent around him than Mac Jones. He also struggled off-script, and made a lot of his best plays with his legs, which will increase the chance of injury. It also doesn't help that he's going to what appears to be the second worst organization in the NFL (the worst being the Texans as long as Jack Easterby is around) on a roster that is relatively bereft of talent. Lawrence would benefit greatly from sitting a year and learning, but with the situation he's being thrust into, that's an impossibility. It's a testament to Lawrence's athletic gifts, character, and displayed on-field perseverance that I have him ranked ahead of Lance. Expect Lawrence to struggle in Year 1, and it's very possible that the Jaguars will ruin him. Floor for Lawrence is Ryan Leaf level bust, and ceiling is Peyton Manning level success.

5) Trey Lance, NDSU: Trey Lance is the biggest example of how valued ceiling becomes in the NFL draft. If you watch his tape, you can convince yourself he's a first round pick based on it. He's accurate, has good ball placement, and makes the occasional good anticipation throw, though he rarely has to call upon it. He also makes plays off-script well, but uses his legs too often to do that, making injuries a concern. Of course with Lance, level of competition is a concern, as NDSU is an FCS school, and it makes you wonder how well he would do if his receivers weren't so wide open and he had to throw into tighter windows. Alternatively, there is the intriguing upside of Lance's age, being that he will be 21 at the start of the 2021 season. Again, it is unclear where Lance will end up, but I think both Lance and whatever team gets him would be best served by sitting him for at least 1 and possibly even 2 seasons. Lance's floor is out of the league in 4 years and his ceiling is Top 10 starting NFL QB.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I thought about creating a separate positional rankings thread for the 2021 NFL Draft, but I don't know that anyone else is crazy enough to have invested too many hours of their time for no payoff other than forming their own opinions about draft prospects. Anyway, I wanted to put a couple of my own (admittedly somewhat fluid) positional rankings out there. These are in no way comprehensive (for example, I've only watched the top 5 QBs. I have no opinion on Kellen Mond at present), just my rankings based on who I've watched along with analysis. I'm only doing QB and OT for now (and only QB in this post), as those are the two positions I've watched the most (I might do DE/Edge at some point, but I haven't watched enough players at the position yet to form a cogent ranking. If I find time to watch 5-10 more players between now and the draft, maybe, but that's unlikely), and I'm also going to include a section on what I value at these positions, so that hopefully my rankings make more sense. For example, my ranking of Trevor Lawrence is entirely about what I value in QBs, and I could certainly see why another person who values different attributes might rank him differently. So, without further ado:

Positional Rankings

QB
What I value at QB: Accuracy, anticipation throws, and ball placement are the top 3 traits for a QB to be successful in the NFL in my opinion. Accuracy is about the QB delivering a catchable ball on any given throw. Anticipation throws are about throwing the ball when the QB sees an indicator that his receiver is going to be open in a window, trusting his receiver to get open in that window, and starting the throw to that window 1-2 seconds before the receiver actually comes open. Ball placement is about the QB throwing the ball where the receiver is the only player who can make a play on the ball. If he doesn't get it, no one will. I also highly value the ability to make plays off-script, especially when that ability primarily translates into chunk pass plays, or turning potentially negative pass plays into positive ones. This is the ability of the QB to, when the play breaks down, use his athleticism and pocket mobility to buy time, allow his receivers to come open, and make throws that in some cases are very difficult to make, but result in positive plays for the offense. These are the plays that frustrate and demoralize an opposing defense. Finally, I like athleticism in a QB, but I view running frequently as a QB as a negative trait. The reasons are twofold: first, this behavior significantly increases the chance of injury, thereby likely decreasing the career length of the QB in question, and second, a QB who runs frequently is likely a QB who isn't going through all of his progressions and is bailing out on a play at the first sign of trouble. That second point is a recipe for long term failure in the NFL.

Rankings
1) Zach Wilson, BYU: I believe that Wilson has Patrick Mahomes level potential, but is also more NFL ready today than Mahomes was in 2017. I also believe he is going to a Jets team that currently has a lot of building blocks in place and is going to add 4 top 100 players in this draft outside of Wilson. Put on tape of Zach Wilson, and you will see a clinic in the positive traits I listed above. He is incredibly accurate, displays good anticipation, and has great ball placement, especially on deep throws. In that tape you will also see him frequently facing pressure, having to adapt, and make off script throws, and typically he makes this look easy. The biggest negatives I see in him are that sometimes he'll get too cute trying to make off-script plays, such as trying to do the no-look pass stuff (I don't even like when Mahomes does that, but it's hard to argue with results), and at times he trusts his arm too much and tries to fit balls into very tight windows (though this works out more often than not, so, again, hard to argue with results). Barring injury, I see Wilson's ceiling as a top 10 NFL starting QB, with a floor of a high quality backup.

2) Mac Jones, Alabama: Considering the current rumors about the third overall pick, it seems that perhaps Kyle Shanahan is seeing what I'm seeing here. The 49ers are currently the best situation for a rookie QB to walk into, and if they select Mac Jones, I believe he will look like the best of the bunch in 2021 because of this. Mac Jones is the most pro ready QB I've seen since Andrew Luck. His accuracy and ball placement rivals Joe Burrow's (who didn't get knocked for playing with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Terrance Marshall, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), and his anticipation is by far the best I've ever seen from a college QB. He's on par with high end NFL veteran starting QBs in anticipation throws. The common knocks on him include surrounding talent (see notes on Joe Burrow above), arm strength and athleticism. Regarding the latter two, I see this as an opportunity rather than a weakness. Jones's pocket mobility is sufficient for when a play breaks down, he can make off-script plays and keep his offense moving, but it is very clear that he did not, as of the night of the national championship game, have an NFL body. To me, this means that he performed at a near optimal level with suboptimal conditioning. Putting him in an NFL strength and conditioning program is an opportunity to give him the arm strength and perhaps even some of the athleticism he lacks, which could even make him better than Wilson. With Jones, I see the floor as a #20-25 NFL starting QB with the ceiling being Top 10 starting NFL QB, barring injury of course.

3) Justin Fields, OSU: Justin Fields is a high upside talent with a high bust factor (a common theme of he and the next 2 QBs). Unfortunately at the present time, it's very unclear where he will end up, which makes it harder to project him as a player, as situation is a very important factor. Fields typically displays good accuracy and good ball placement, but struggles at times with anticipation and can be fooled by disguises from a defense (see: Indiana tape). Fields's athleticism is off the charts, and his ability to make off-script plays is very good, but too often he does it by becoming a runner, which creates a much higher injury risk as a concern. I think Fields will come much closer to ceiling than floor with a good developmental coaching staff and a redshirt year. In my opinion, Fields's floor is out of the league in 4 years, and his ceiling is Top 10 NFL starting QB.

4) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: This is likely to be the most controversial of my rankings, but I will stand by it whether he hits ceiling or not. I've watched A LOT of Clemson tape to come to this conclusion, and the problem I have with the projections I see of Lawrence is that I see an incredibly significant bust factor in him for which I don't think people are accounting. Quite honestly, of the three traits I listed that were most important in my evaluation, for me Lawrence was lacking in both accuracy and anticipation, and possibly above average in ball placement. He missed open receivers and missed open windows far too often because he wasn't starting the throw at the right time, he wasn't putting the ball in the right place, or he was throwing to the wrong read. Lawrence's anticipation is awful at present, and to me, he is much more of an example of benefiting from talent around him than Mac Jones. He also struggled off-script, and made a lot of his best plays with his legs, which will increase the chance of injury. It also doesn't help that he's going to what appears to be the second worst organization in the NFL (the worst being the Texans as long as Jack Easterby is around) on a roster that is relatively bereft of talent. Lawrence would benefit greatly from sitting a year and learning, but with the situation he's being thrust into, that's an impossibility. It's a testament to Lawrence's athletic gifts, character, and displayed on-field perseverance that I have him ranked ahead of Lance. Expect Lawrence to struggle in Year 1, and it's very possible that the Jaguars will ruin him. Floor for Lawrence is Ryan Leaf level bust, and ceiling is Peyton Manning level success.

5) Trey Lance, NDSU: Trey Lance is the biggest example of how valued ceiling becomes in the NFL draft. If you watch his tape, you can convince yourself he's a first round pick based on it. He's accurate, has good ball placement, and makes the occasional good anticipation throw, though he rarely has to call upon it. He also makes plays off-script well, but uses his legs too often to do that, making injuries a concern. Of course with Lance, level of competition is a concern, as NDSU is an FCS school, and it makes you wonder how well he would do if his receivers weren't so wide open and he had to throw into tighter windows. Alternatively, there is the intriguing upside of Lance's age, being that he will be 21 at the start of the 2021 season. Again, it is unclear where Lance will end up, but I think both Lance and whatever team gets him would be best served by sitting him for at least 1 and possibly even 2 seasons. Lance's floor is out of the league in 4 years and his ceiling is Top 10 starting NFL QB.

I hope your assessment of Lawrence is correct if the Jags draft him.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

I hope your assessment of Lawrence is correct if the Jags draft him.

All I can say is watch his film. If you get wide angles of plays, you'll see him start throwing a ball when a receiver gets to an open window. That's not when the throw has to be made for the receiver to be open, especially in the NFL. As a QB you have to read the defense, process their coverage shell, and know the play your team is running well enough to know that, for example, against a Cover 2 Zone, the 15 yard post is going to be open in MOF, and that the ball has to be thrown to MOF WHEN THE RECEIVER IS MAKING HIS CUT for the throw to be open. Lawrence waits for the receiver to be in the MOF spot to throw the ball, resulting in a PBU.

If you watch Lawrence and Mac Jones back to back, it's night and day difference. You can freeze frame film on Jones and watch when he throws a fade. The INSTANT Jones sees the DB turn his back to run with the WR, ball is coming out and perfectly placed back shoulder 15-25 yards downfield. That throw is like clockwork for him with how consistent he is with it. Pick any fade he threw, you'll see it every time. Another great example is the crosser TD to Devonta Smith in the NC game. OSU ran Cover 3 and had a single high safety, Jones probably knew right away based on the look that he wanted Devonta. At the snap, Jones immediately begins looking left, drawing the safety that direction and away from MOF with his eyes. That left Tuf Borland to cover Devonta Smith, which meant all Mac had to do was loft one in over the top where Borland could never get to it and just let Devonta run under it, which he did. Those little things I'm describing are the difference between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Now, none of this is to say that Lawrence can't learn this stuff, he seems to have the right character and talent to burn to be able to do it, but he's also had 3 years at Clemson to improve this stuff, and he just simply hasn't. That's a huge red flag to me, and I don't understand why it's not a cause for concern for most evaluators.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

All I can say is watch his film. If you get wide angles of plays, you'll see him start throwing a ball when a receiver gets to an open window. That's not when the throw has to be made for the receiver to be open, especially in the NFL. As a QB you have to read the defense, process their coverage shell, and know the play your team is running well enough to know that, for example, against a Cover 2 Zone, the 15 yard post is going to be open in MOF, and that the ball has to be thrown to MOF WHEN THE RECEIVER IS MAKING HIS CUT for the throw to be open. Lawrence waits for the receiver to be in the MOF spot to throw the ball, resulting in a PBU.

If you watch Lawrence and Mac Jones back to back, it's night and day difference. You can freeze frame film on Jones and watch when he throws a fade. The INSTANT Jones sees the DB turn his back to run with the WR, ball is coming out and perfectly placed back shoulder 15-25 yards downfield. That throw is like clockwork for him with how consistent he is with it. Pick any fade he threw, you'll see it every time. Another great example is the crosser TD to Devonta Smith in the NC game. OSU ran Cover 3 and had a single high safety, Jones probably knew right away based on the look that he wanted Devonta. At the snap, Jones immediately begins looking left, drawing the safety that direction and away from MOF with his eyes. That left Tuf Borland to cover Devonta Smith, which meant all Mac had to do was loft one in over the top where Borland could never get to it and just let Devonta run under it, which he did. Those little things I'm describing are the difference between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Now, none of this is to say that Lawrence can't learn this stuff, he seems to have the right character and talent to burn to be able to do it, but he's also had 3 years at Clemson to improve this stuff, and he just simply hasn't. That's a huge red flag to me, and I don't understand why it's not a cause for concern for most evaluators.

No need to get defensive. I wasn't arguing with you.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

No need to get defensive. I wasn't arguing with you.

I wasn't trying to be defensive. I just enjoy talking about the subject. I really resonate with E.J. Snyder's statement on his Twitter bio that "Game film is my drug of choice".

[apballin]

Only thing we can’t account for is these guys personality, Ballard seems to be big on high character team guys, locker room guys or whatever so I’m starting to think Eichenberg or cosmi might fight what they’re looking for as far as that goes

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by apballin

Only thing we can’t account for is these guys personality, Ballard seems to be big on high character team guys, locker room guys or whatever so I’m starting to think Eichenberg or cosmi might fight what they’re looking for as far as that goes

There's a solid TE and two athletic pass rushers coming from Notre Dame this year. People are reading too much into the Colts going to ND's pro day with Eichenberg.