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Old 02-11-2020, 07:01 PM
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Default Smitty’s 2020 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft

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Smitty’s 2020 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft

Probably way to early and dead wrong, definitely open for discussion

1st things first, I see a couple early trades:
1. Dolphins trading the 1.05 & 2.07 to the Lions for pick 1.03 to insure they can grab fan favorite Tua Tagvailoa
2. Lions trade the 1.05 to the Colts for the 1.13 and the 2.02

The Picks:

1. Bengals: Joe Burrow (QB-LSU)

Andy "The Red Rifle" Dalton is out of ammo; enter the gun slinger from LSU. Burrow features a high-level skill set with the makeup of being a dynamic franchise quarterback. His blend of accuracy, ability to handle pressure, mechanics and mental processing skills are all blue chip traits that make him NFL ready.

2. Redskins: Chase Young (Edge-Ohio State)
Washington lands the best overall prospect in this class. Young is a rare pass rusher with an incredible combination of size, athleticism and explosiveness. Young is one of the best young edge rushers to enter the process in the last few years. Chase Young is a rare defensive prospect with an elite overall skill set. Projecting most favorably to a role at the next level as a 4-3 defensive end, Young is without limitations an instant impact edge defender with the upside to become one the NFLs most prolific defensive playmakers. He’s polished, powerful, athletic and features every desirable physical trait needed.

3. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (QB-Alabama)
Dolphins trading the 1.05 & 2.07 to the Lions for pick 1.03 to insure they can grab fan favorite Tua Tagovailoa. I think the bearded one (Fitz Magic) returns for a year while the Dolphins let Tua enjoy a "Red Shirt" year to heal. He has elite accuracy and ball placement at all levels of the field on tape. There’s not a throw he can’t make. Consistently throws with anticipation and into tight windows. Has the arm talent and touch to throw receivers open. Very good at adjusting when the pocket collapses. Has special poise under pressure. Can pick apart a defense with his football intelligence and quick mental trigger.

4. Giants: Andrew Thomas (OT-Georgia)
The Giants need help on defense, however the G-men have to keep Daniel Jones upright. Adding the best OT in the draft goes a long way toward doing this. Powerful worker in the run game. Does well to unlock his hips, accelerate his feet and create movement. Lethal working combos and down blocking. Long, physical and aggressive brings the fight in pass protection. Has exciting moments of framing blocks, leveraging his hips and keeping rushers at the end of his reach.

5. Colts: Justin Herbert (QB-Oregon)
The Colts Chris Ballard pulls a fast one trading up to nab Justin Herbert in front of the now Rivers-less Chargers. The Colts can give Herbert this season or part of it to learn and step in for Jacoby Brissett next year or earlier should Brissett falter. Herbert has all the physical attributes to check all the boxes for what NFL teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback, under Coach Frank Reich. Shows consistency with both accuracy and velocity on passes. Has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically and also fit passes into tight windows. Ball placement is ideal. Knows when to put passes high, when to put them low, when to lead receivers away from contact, etc. Has good mobility and can maintain passing integrity with arm strength and accuracy when on the run.

6. Chargers: Jedrick Wills (OT-Alabama)
The Chargers are also looking for a quarterback here, especially after moving on from Phillip Rivers. The Colts traded up for their man in Herbert. But whoever ends up under center will need to be protected, and Wills is one of the top offensive linemen in this class. Adding Wills here makes the most sense to me. Wills is a textbook fit as a Tackle in the NFL with his power and nasty demeanor. Not only can he consistently carve out lanes in the run game, but his technique and discipline in pass protection improved by leaps and bounds in 2019

7. Panthers: Derrick Brown (DT-Auburn)
The Panthers defense needs a big boost, especially on the interior of its line, and Brown is the best defensive tackle prospect in this class. Derrick Brown is one of the most complete interior defensive line prospects to pass through the draft process in recent memory. Plug and play starter with All-Pro potential at the NFL level.

8. Cardinals: Cee Dee Lamb (WR-Oklahoma)
The Cardinals consider OT help here but with Thomas and Wills off the board, the Cards can’t help themselves from adding who I feel is the best WR in the draft. Cee Dee Lamb, is a YAC monster, would certainly solve a lot of problems in Arizona’s’ downfield passing attack for years to come. With the ageing Fitz on his last legs to learn from.

9. Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw (DT-South Carolina)
The Jags look to the trenches to rebuild what was once one of the league’s most feared defensive fronts. They do that grabbing Kinlaw. A rare athlete for his size, Kinlaw is a versatile, disruptive defender who will wreak havoc. Javon Kinlaw is a Day 1 target for any team looking to add a starter on the defensive line, and will be a disruption up front. A hugely powerful athlete with a wicked first step, Kinlaw demolishes blocking schemes and pocket integrity with regularly.

10. Browns: Tristan Wirfs (OT-Iowa)
The Browns offensive line needs help, Tristan Wirfs gets the call here. If he doesn’t pan out at tackle he will be a stud at guard. Tristan Wirfs should be considered a plug and play starter at the next level. He has tremendous ability in space, a strong anchor, fluid feet and explosive pads. He's scheme diverse and his candidacy to kick inside will only provide greater value

11. Jets: Mekhi Becton (OT-Louisville)
With three tackles off the board, the run continues as the Jets have got to protect Sam Darnold. They snatch up a 370-pound bodyguard for Darnold. Mekhi Becton, a colossus human being with surprisingly quick feet, is drawing Bryant McKinnie and Trent Brown comps. Becton projects as a starting left tackle at the NFL level. Becton has all the length and functional power in the world, pairing it with a rare blend of flexibility and size. Becton is a brawler in the run game and his pure size overwhelms many pass rushers off the edge.

12. Raiders: Isaiah Simmons (LB/S-Clemson)
The Raiders with the league’s worst defensive unit last year are happy to find Simmons available here. Simmons is a defensive weapon. You don’t draft him to play a traditional off-ball role. You draft him to move him all over the place, erase opponents, and tick off opposing offensive coordinators. Jerry Jeudy was a possibility but defensive help is the pick here.

13. Lions: Jeff Okudah (CB-Ohio State)
The Lions need help in their defensive backfield. They are elated to find who they were targeting with the 1.03 still available at 1.13. Okudah is the pick. They need a lockdown corner, and Okudah is the best this class has to offer. Okudah is an early first round talent with the upside to become one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He features an elite man coverage skill set. Not to mention they added the 2.02 and the 2.07 to further bolster their draft.

14. Buccaneers: Jacob Eason (QB-Washington)
I believe the Bucs will look to move on from Jameis Winston and make the call for Eason. He doesn't have the fine details of playing the quarterback position down just yet, but his arm was made to rip it vertically in Bruce Arians' aggressive system. So it will be Eason’s arm getting the nod over Jordon Love here. Possibly learning from UFA Phillip Rivers who recently moved to Florida with his wife and nine kids in tow.

15. Broncos: Jerry Jeudy: (WR-Alabama)
Jeudy can take the top off the defense. They desperately need a dynamic pass-catcher like Jeudy. Jeudy with his explosiveness and precise route-running ability will make him a big-time weapon for the Broncos and Quarterback Drew Lock for a long time.

16. Falcons: A.J. Epenesa (EDGE-Iowa)
LSU Cornerback Kristian Fulton could be an option here for Atlanta, but Dan Quinn needs more pass rush on the outside. They have already made it clear they're moving on from Vic Beasley, and they'll need an immediate starter at defensive end to help share the load. Epenesa can play anywhere and is more athletic than almost all humans his size.

17. Cowboys: Grant Delpit (S-LSU)
What could be considered a steal The Cowboys badly need a safety, and the best one in the draft just fell into their lap. Delpit is already being undervalued. He is a gifted player that suffered through an ankle injury this season. Dallas should take him at No. 17 overall and run. He will pay big dividends on the back end of the Dallas defense.

18. Dolphins: K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE-LSU)
The Dolphins need help everywhere, and the best player available here is Chaisson, who brings a needed boost to the pass rush but is even better against the run. He can play immediately and Chaisson would be a great value at this point, as he could go 10 spots higher than this and it wouldn't shock me at all. He's an excellent run defender with untapped potential rushing the passer.

19. Raiders: Kristian Fulton (CB-LSU)
After taking Isaiah Simmons with pick #12 , I believe the Raiders will double down on their porous defense and add a much needed Cornerback in Kristian Fulton. Fulton is slightly on the smaller side but is as polished as they come at the cornerback spot with lightning-quick click-and-close capabilities in zone and outstanding mirroring skills down the field.

20. Jaguars: C.J. Henderson (CB-Florida)
The Jaguars continue to address the defensive side of the ball at pick #20, Henderson fills a real need in his own right. The value with the Gators standout is just too much to pass up, here

21. Eagles: Henry Ruggs III (WR-Alabama)
The Eagles need receiving reinforcement. The 2019 season made that abundantly clear, when DeSean Jackson, who is 33, missed most of last season with an injury. Ruggs certainly could go much higher than this, but if he's available, he'll bring the dynamic presence the Eagles sorely lacked last year.

22. Bills: Tee Higgins (WR-Clemson)
This is a match made in football heaven for Josh Allen. Higgins is the jump-ball specialist Allen has been waiting for. Buffalo needs a catch-radius monster to play on the perimeter. Higgins has the best ball skills in the class and is a big 6’4” target.

23. Patriots: Josh Jones (OT-Houston)
For the Patriots it's imperative to bring more talent in to reinforce the trenches, Josh Jones has an awesome blend of nastiness, power, and athleticism. Jones is on the rise after a strong Senior Bowl performance, and with the upside of a franchise left tackle if he continues to develop

24. Saints: Laviska Shenault (WR-Colorado)
I think Shenault is better than others rank him, a lot better. His health caused his drop on most boards, even mine. You try staying healthy when your team needs to force feed you the ball every play to win. Shenault is a beast at 225-pounds who’s hell to bring down. He’s not just a tough-guy though; you can use him in a myriad of ways. Colorado lined him up all over the place, including at Wildcat QB. Taking over for Tasom Hill who is looking for full-time employment. Why would Drew Brees not come back with this weapon added alongside Michael Thomas?

25. Vikings: Yetur Gross-Matos (EDGE-Penn State)
Minnesota needs another edge rusher and potentially two before long. The best player available here to fill that need is Gross-Matos, who brings a needed boost to the pass rush but is even better against the run. He can play immediately and is a physical freak that has yet to scratch the surface on just how good he can be.

26. Dolphins: Xavier McKinney (S-Alabama)
The Dolphins traded Minkah Fitzpatrick away when he didn't want to be moved all over the field, but McKinney has plenty of experience in that role. He brings much needed talent to the back end of the Phins defense. They need to bolster the secondary, especially at safety, and McKinney is arguably the best one in this draft class. He can play centerfield or closer to the line of scrimmage, and brings physicality to the defense.

27. Seahawks: Julian Okwara (EDGE-Notre Dame)

Jadaveon Clowney was dominant at times last season, but he was mostly going it alone. He may or may not be back. Okwara had an injury to his fibula, but I like him here more so than Lewis or Weaver. Okwara gets overlooked a bit because of his thin build. But he is a freakish athlete, 21 mph tracked speed. Oh, and he was an utterly dominant pass rusher for the Fighting Irish last fall.

28. Ravens: Kenneth Murray (LB-Oklahoma)
The Ravens are losing a lot of snaps in free agency. Murray brings excellent speed to the position and can solidify one spot in the starting lineup. Murray has sideline-to-sideline speed and is a middle-of-the-field playmaker who has the talent to be the next great inside linebacker in Baltimore.

29. Titans: Trevon Diggs (CB-Alabama)
I thought about D'Andre Swift here but I don't see the Titans not re-signing Henry. With two CB's set to hit the open market, should the Titans bring back one (or both), you can never have enough defensive backs on the roster. Diggs is one of the most physical CBs in this draft class.

30. Packers: Jalen Reagor (WR-TCU)
There isn't much DaVante Adams can't do but he needs help. A guy with this much juice will level up in the NFL in a big way with a quarterback who throws with timing and accuracy. Jalen Reagor is a four-down player, who can line up anywhere, and would be yet another chess piece for Aaron Rodgers to utilize.

31. 49ers: Justin Jefferson (WR-LSU)
The 49ers need interior offensive line help, but feel it is a bit of a reach here. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel will have an important role in the offense for a long time but the 49ers need more firepower to compliment him. Justin Jefferson should provide the weapon they need.

32. Chiefs: D’Andre Swift (RB-Georgia)
Adding the first running back off the board to the already potent Chiefs offense, almost is not fair to the rest of the league. Swift is a game-breaking playmaker that is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. He is a tenacious runner that runs with a strong base, nice speed and good leverage. He is a tough runner that gets yards after contact.
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:24 PM
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I want Kinlaw . So I hope he falls . I dont like ANY of the QB's beyond Burrows and maybe Tua in the 1st
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puck View Post
I want Kinlaw . So I hope he falls . I dont like ANY of the QB's beyond Burrows and maybe Tua in the 1st
I like Burrow, Tagovailoa too
Herbert I believe will be good but may take a year.
Not going get Lawrence next year so like Herbert learning a year. He has the tools.
I don't care much for Jordan Love.
Kinlaw I doubt will fall to 1.13 if we don't trade up. But like Kinlaw a lot also like Cee Dee Lamb at WR

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Old 02-12-2020, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty46953 View Post
I like Burrow, Tagovailoa too
Herbert I believe will be good but may take a year.
Not going get Lawrence next year so like Herbert learning a year. He has the tools.
I don't care much for Jordan Love.
Kinlaw I doubt will fall to 1.13 if we don't trade up. But like Kinlaw a lot also like Cee Dee Lamb at WR

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Great post Smitty. I don't care much for Love either, but I could be wrong about him. Not sure I even like Herbert. But if Ballard likes either one, then go get him. Hopefully one of them will become the next Mahomes for us.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:06 PM
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I ran a few of those simulators multiple times and it was rare that kinlaw was still there at 13. I want him too. I like smitty's mock having us trade up for herbert. That makes some sense without breaking the bank.

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Old 02-11-2020, 11:09 PM
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Quality stuff smitty, legit writeups on every team. Wtfg

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Old 02-11-2020, 11:50 PM
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I would not be upset with this.
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Old 02-12-2020, 09:12 AM
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I would not mind a trade up for Herbert. But there is no way Okudah lasts till #13 in that scenario.
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Old 02-12-2020, 11:11 AM
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I would not mind a trade up for Herbert. But there is no way Okudah lasts till #13 in that scenario.
Perhaps ... Lot of teams needing OL help

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Old 02-12-2020, 05:22 PM
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Thanks Smitty for the write-up. I don't follow much college football so it is appreciated.


Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty46953 View Post
1st things first, I see a couple early trades:
1. Dolphins trading the 1.05 & 2.07 to the Lions for pick 1.03 to insure they can grab fan favorite Tua Tagvailoa
2. Lions trade the 1.05 to the Colts for the 1.13 and the 2.02
One comment about the trades: I doubt either of these will occur as proposed. While they appear to be equal "value" when looking at a Draft Value Chart, when multiple teams are interested in trading up for a QB, a premium is usually paid.

For instance, review the two trades early in the 2018 draft including the Colts-Jets trade:

Colts traded: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Jets traded: 1.06, 2.37, 2.49 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

So the Jets had to pay almost a 30% premium to move up 3 spots in the first round where they eventually selected Sam Darnold.

Similarly, look at the Tampa Bay - Buffalo trade that same year:

Bucs traded: 1.07, 7.255 (value = 1501)
Bills traded: 1.12, 2.53 and 2.56 (value = 1910)

The Bills also paid about a 30% premium to move up 5 spots from 12 to 7 so that they could draft Josh Allen.

The premium can vary from year to year based on the number of teams looking to trade up as well as the number of teams looking to trade down. Supply and demand.

If the premium was ~30% again this year, the proposed trades would look like this:

Lions trade: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Dolphins trade: 1.05, 2.39, 2.56 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

and

Lions trade: 1.05 (value = 1700)
Colts trade: 1.13, 2.34, and 2.44 (value = 2170)


Will the Dolphins still make the trade to move up 2 spots surrendering both their 2nd round picks this year and their 2nd next year? If Tua's medicals check out, probably so. (they have two additional 1st's this year acquired via trades anyway)

Will the Colts trade their top 3 picks this year to move up 8 spots to grab a QB? If they really like the QB, probably so.

The Lions would make out like bandits receiving five 2nd round picks to move down 10 spots. The last two drafts had a lot of really good players from picks 20 - 70 meaning it was advantageous to acquire 2nd round picks. Many analysts stated it was hard to mock those drafts because there was little difference from pick 20 to pick 70. Does the draft this year have the same quality and depth from 20 - 70?

Last edited by AlwaysSunnyinIndy; 02-13-2020 at 01:12 AM.
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