Indystar 9/22

[JAFF]

Will Anthony Richardson have a shorter NFL career as a mobile QB?

The Indianapolis Colts selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick in the NFL Draft this year after starting six different quarterbacks in the previous six openers. In two games, Richardson has clearly flashed the potential to end the team's quarterback carousel.

He also failed to finish either game due to injury.

The question is, what is the risk in using a mobile quarterback such as Richardson?

You're not going to like the answer.

Houston Texans safety M.J. Stewart (29) tries to tackle Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) as he rushes in a touchdown Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, during a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston
Over the last 25 years, mobile quarterbacks' careers have included one-third fewer games than pocket passers. The pocket passers have played an average of 163 games. Mobile quarterbacks? 110. The difference is equal to more than three seasons.

There is, of course, a lot of noise in this data. The mobile group includes Russell Wilson, who has played in 175 games (and counting); mobile quarterbacks can have long careers. Michael Vick and Colin Kaepernick, of course, had shorter careers for off-the-field reasons. The pocket passers include oft-injured Sam Bradford and Marc Bulger. But the trend is unmistakable.


I looked at every quarterback who produced 9,000 total yards (passing plus rushing yards) in their first five seasons. The idea is to set the mark low enough to include quarterbacks who had their career shortened by injury but high enough that the quarterback would play when healthy. Quarterbacks drafted in 2013 or later are not included to allow for a measurable career.

The 11 quarterbacks who averaged at least 20 rushing yards per game in their first five seasons are (with career games played): Blake Bortles (78), Daunte Culpepper (105), Jeff Garcia (125), Robert Griffin III (56), Kaepernick (69), Andrew Luck (86), Donovan McNabb (167), Cam Newton (148), Vick (143), Wilson (175) and Vince Young (60).


The 11 quarterbacks who averaged less than 5 rushing yards per game are: Bradford (83), Tom Brady (335), Bulger (96), Kirk Cousins (144), Jake Delhomme (103), Eli Manning (236), Kyle Orton (87), Carson Palmer (182), Philip Rivers (244), Tony Romo (156) and Kurt Warner (124). (Peyton Manning averaged 7 rushing yards per game his first five seasons, putting him in the 19-quarterback middle group.)

Richardson's first two games have been undeniably tantalizing, but history says the injuries will continue to be an issue.