A look at the cases for and against Anthony Richardson for the Colts

[JAFF]

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...n/70101263007/

Leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, IndyStar will preview prospects who could be a fit for the Colts. They pick at No. 4 in the first round, No. 35 in the second round and No. 79 in the third round.

Previous prospect previews:

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

Today's preview looks at Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson.

Height: 6-4



Weight: 244

Projected round: 1

40-yard dash time: 4.43 seconds

Vertical jump: 40.5 inches

Broad jump: 129 inches

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is a top NFL Draft prospect despite starting just one season in college.
Key stats: Started 13 games across three seasons at Florida, including 12 in 2022. Completed 54.7% of passes for 3,105 yards, 24 touchdowns and 15 interceptions on 7.9 yards per attempt. Ran for 1,116 yards and 11 touchdowns on 6.9 yards per carry. Led Florida to a 6-6 record and an appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2022.


Quotable: "I don't believe in hype. Hype can take you down the wrong tunnel, and I'm not going down the wrong tunnel."

Analysis: Welcome to one of the most unique draft prospects you will ever see.

In Anthony Richardson, you can choose to see anything or choose to see nothing. He's started all of 13 games, and the sample size is so small with so many caveats that deciding what's a positive and what's a negative can be an exercise in perspective.

On one hand, Richardson presents all the excitement of a kid just scratching the surface. He's only started 13 games, caught between a coaching change, system switch and roster overhaul from the ugly end to the Dan Mullen tenure to the first season under Billy Napier in the rugged Southeastern Conference. He can't be expected to be polished, but he can be asked to show flashes, and he's done that with two 80-yard touchdown runs and drop-backs where he creates his own throwing lane to launch passes 40 yards with a mere flick of the wrist.


This is a historic athlete. Among quarterback prospects, his 40.5-inch vertical jump is the best ever and his 129-inch broad jump is tied for the best ever. He ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash. And he's 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds. He's a create-an-athlete, and if you want to find examples of it in his film, you can. The effortless arm power, the explosive shifts in body weight to different platforms in the pocket, the refusal to go down in the pocket or on first contact near the line to gain, the speed to outrun the defense -- it's all there in a single body.


From a physical standpoint, this is the best mix of size, speed and arm strength the quarterback position has seen since Cam Newton, who also started his career at Florida and also started just one season above the junior college level.

But the other hand presents a fear factor with Richardson: He has yet to play anything like Newton on a football field. Remember that Newton's one season at Auburn featured him dragging a team that went 8-5 the year before and the year after to 14-0 through the best conference in college football. He completed 66.1% of his passes, or more than 11% better than Richardson; he ran for 1,473 yards, more than double Richardson; and he generated 51 touchdowns, nearly double Richardson. It made him an easy No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft.

Player comparisons are only meant to be taken so far, but Newton is a fascinating example of the two sides of this coin. Richardson has the physical gifts to be in a rare conversation. He has the confidence and desire that matches what Newton showed at such a young age. He doesn't have proof of the concept -- and whether that means he's not really in that conversation or of an untapped ceiling that not even Newton saw is in the eye of the beholder.


A TRIP TO GAINESVILLE: Anthony Richardson: ‘Lord knows what my ceiling is.’ Will Colts be the team to find out?

Arguments go both ways constantly. Perhaps his 53.8% completion rate was a result of playing with a 10.7-yard average depth of target, good for third among high-volume Power 5 quarterbacks, per Sports Info Solutions; perhaps it's related to his 25 throw-aways and countless drops from a receiving corps that doesn't feature NFL talent and that he had one year to build chemistry with. Perhaps the drop rate has to do with his fastball-style approach and struggles to layer the ball or lead a receiver moving horizontally, and perhaps those are fixable and perhaps that's a dream.


Perhaps all of that is due to the lack of time on the field -- and perhaps that is not his fault, since Florida was in disarray and he chose to stay to build it anyway as a Gainesville kid who wanted to play in front of his mother and brother; or perhaps it's his job to rise above and earn his way onto the field even for a bad team, because that's what he'll be asked to do in the NFL.

Drafting Richardson high is a bet on the development system, because since the turn of the millennium, no player with his mix of experience and production has found success in the NFL:

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is a historic athlete looking to make a historic jump from his college production to NFL success in the passing era.
The Colts hired Shane Steichen this offseason because of his ability to get the most out of any style of quarterback, from Philip Rivers to Justin Herbert to Jalen Hurts. His most recent work with Hurts, in developing accuracy while utilizing his legs for an early floor, creates excitement for what he could do with Richardson in the short- and long-term.

But the Colts don't have an incumbent quarterback to keep Richardson on the bench if sitting and learning is the best path forward. History shows that a newcomer like Gardner Minshew might only be able to do so for so long. Indianapolis needs to rebuild an offensive personnel that finished dead last in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric last season and has yet to make many upgrades. To close the gap, they'll need Richardson to grow into the obsessive worker and charismatic leader that Hurts was, which takes scouting something the measurables and highlights can't show.


Richardson's ceiling is higher than any quarterback in this class, but his floor is lower than that of Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Kentucky's Will Levis. The Colts would need the right plan for the timeline, the scheme and the surrounding personnel over the next two years to unlock something close to the ceiling, but that ceiling could be their golden ticket in the race to contend in an AFC built by monster quarterbacks.

His ability to do a back flip means nothing to playing QB. Thinking fast is more important than running fast in the NFL

[nate505]

Out of the "Big 4" QBs, he's #3 on my list (behind Young and Stroud in that order) and I think he has the tools to be one of the best duel threat QBs ever. Don't know if he'll get there, but you need the tools before you can start.

He also doesn't seem like he's a mental midget, so there's a ton of optimism that he'll be receptive to coaching and won't be a lazy bum who doesn't try, ala a Demarcus Russell or an arrogant immature prick ala Josh Rosen.

[omahacolt]

richardson is the guy we should take. he is the only one that has a chance of being a great player.

but he may bust. and bust badly


like when dam prematurely ejaculates when he sees a picture of stroud. that bad

[Brylok]

Can't throw a 5 yard out route.

[apballin]

Take Richardson or be the idiots that passed on him when he does things that have never been done before. He could be a once in a lifetime QB honestly.

Faster than Dlineman, bigger than LBs and DBs, cannon arm, freak athlete.

Don’t fuck this up Ballard he’s right up your alley, don’t change philosophy because of Manning he’s not the fuckin GM

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Brylok

Can't throw a 5 yard out route.

This is my concern. Can he be Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen? DTR might be this year's Hurts. The accuracy has to improve with him. If it doesn't, he's a bust, if it does, he's a star.

[apballin]

Originally Posted by Brylok

Can't throw a 5 yard out route.

Who cares about a 5 yard out,

Can turn a 5 yard sweep into an 80 yard TD

[albany ed]

Que sera sera
whoever we draft we draft
we don't control the choice
que sera sera

Doris Day Irsay

[Butter]

Originally Posted by apballin

Who cares about a 5 yard out,

Can turn a 5 yard sweep into an 80 yard TD

NFL QBs being able to you know pass well is pretty important. I have no clue how he will develop in the NFL, but to just blow off the ability to throw basic routes seems kind of dumb no matter how well he runs, that shit is not going to sustain in the NFL.

[ChaosTheory]

I know he sounds like a good kid and is uber talented, but I can't help but think he'd be our version of the Titans' Malik Willis. That dude was hyped up (to a lesser degree) and it was a surprise he slid all the way to the 3rd. Then the Titans tried to train him to be a passer instead of relying on his athleticism (4.3 guy allegedly).
Here they are one year later (at least they only burned a 3rd).

If they take him, I hope Steichen is a magician.