IndyStar - Insider: 10 thoughts on the NFL combine and where the Colts go from here

[IndyNorm]

INDIANAPOLIS - Ten thoughts on the NFL Scouting Combine and where the Colts go from here:

1. I came in feeling like this combine could be very different from the previous three. Those events were all about impending changes at the quarterback position.

And, for two straight years, it's felt easy to narrow in on one position group that the Colts were going to draft with their first pick. Everyone knew it would be a wide receiver in 2022, back when T.Y. Hilton was departing and only Michael Pittman Jr. could crack 500 yards the previous season. Last year was clearly quarterback.

This year, with Anthony Richardson, the draft and free agency feel like open season. Big moves would be coming to a team with more than $70 million available in cap space, a quarterback and coach it believes in and a team that just went 9-8, but forecasting where felt quite difficult.

In talking with general manager Chris Ballard and a few sources with knowledge of the Colts' personnel, some things are coming into view.

Is Colts GM Chris Ballard targeting a position this offseason?

2. In a chat with local media, Ballard was asked if he has a position he'd like to target with the No. 15 overall pick.

"I have a pretty good idea of it," Ballard said. "It's one that's going to be playing on Sunday and you're going to be calling out his name."

You can talk yourself into the pick becoming a wide receiver, tight end, cornerback or edge rusher. With foundational players like defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, guard Quenton Nelson and running back Jonathan Taylor, it feels like the Colts need a game changer at a premium position to elevate.

Ballard is putting together a puzzle here where he needs to align the value of the No. 15 pick with the other six selections and only after free agency, where the Colts have more than $70 million available and four big-time in-house free agents, too. He's been studying this draft class since the fall, evaluating the high-end talent with the depth of the draft. And one position is standing out to him now.

3. I'll get to which position I think that is, but it's worth talking about the agenda item we know has to happen first:

Michael Pittman Jr.

Ballard said that Pittman will be on his roster come September one way or another. That means that he is either going to lock him down to a new contract or use the franchise tag ahead of Tuesday's 4 p.m. deadline.

It meant something to hear it from Ballard, who has not yet invested a first-round pick or a major extension into a wide receiver in his seven years as general manager.

It says something about Richardson, about Pittman and about Shane Steichen's desire to have difference-makers at the position. Steichen's last franchise went out and acquired A.J. Brown for him when they were in this same spot with a developing Jalen Hurts, and that came after spending a first-round pick on Devonta Smith.

They trust Steichen to know what a young quarterback needs to ascend, and I sense that influence playing out on the Colts more and more.

Colts don't want a repeat of Jonathan Taylor

4. I think we'll see the franchise tag first.

Pittman has made it clear that his goal is to experience free agency. He wants to see what all is out there, to line up the potential destinations and quarterbacks and offers and pick the best one.

It's what you do when you know you have leverage. Currently, 14 different receivers are making more than $20 million annually, with Tyreek Hill leading the way at $30 million. It's the opposite of the spot Jonathan Taylor was in as a running back a year ago.

Short of Pittman accepting a deal in the next few hours, the way the Colts can curb that competitive bidding is to use the franchise tag, which will lock him in for next season at $20.7 million. But they should use it as a way to build the long-term deal, because they don't want another mess that can come with using the tag as a threat on a star player.

Keep in mind what Pittman told me after Taylor's extension:

"Going forward, every player can take a page out of his book," Pittman said. "He stood strong on what he felt that he deserved, and both sides ended up happy. ... It just goes to show that you've got to fight for it."

5. The longer the Colts wait on the extension, the more they'll see his market rise. That effect started Monday, when Mike Evans inked a two-year deal for $26 million per season. It'll continue whenever extensions come through for Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase.

The question left is whether the Colts know enough about Pittman as a player as well as a person, which Ballard always weighs heavily in these talks. It seems like they do.

"Look, he cares about winning. He wants to win," Ballard said of Pittman. "When you're a good player, part of that is you want the football. I don't know if I want to be around a guy who doesn't want the ball. ... The one thing you never have to worry about with that guy is he empties the tank."

6. On to cornerback. Ballard has taken some responsibility for Gus Bradley's defense due to the youth of the position but has also talked up the potential of the players they are developing there in JuJu Brents, Jaylon Jones and Dallis Flowers. He has said repeatedly that Brents needs to find a way to stay on the field after missing eight games with various hamstring and quad injuries.

It seems clear they want to add here, but if the issues are primarily youth and numbers, the draft only addresses part of the problem. Ballard understand the risk here. In years when he's not had a rookie quarterback, he has made veteran signings here with players like Xavier Rhodes and Stephon Gilmore.

The Colts could go to free agency and the draft for options. But as far as what they can bank on to fix the room immediately, it makes sense to sign a proven commodity. Kendall Fuller of the Commanders is one player I've suggested. A swing in the $10+ million range feels necessary with the financial flexibility they have and the severity of the need.

Alabama's Terrion Arnold, Iowa's Cooper DeJean, Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell and Clemson's Nate Wiggins are all intriguing players, but I'd look more into a developmental pick than to force a starter out of a rookie here. I'm pretty sure the coaching staff would, too.

Why the Colts might avoid edge rusher early in the draft

7. I also get the sense that the Colts believe a lot in the edge players they have.

Last year, the Colts set an Indianapolis record with 51 sacks but responded by switching out position coach Nate Ollie for Charlie Partridge, a Shane Steichen decision.

They grew frustrated when opponents opted to max protect late in the season, which cut the impact of Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. Since all three took a leap from the year before, the Colts are hopeful at least one can elevate to a high-end level this season, a source told IndyStar. If it happens, the Colts would have two rushers who can beat double teams along with Buckner inside, and they'll have a solution they won't have to pay for.

I think it's risky, as Paye and Ebukam have each had at least three seasons to show they have those abilities, and Odeyingbo fits best as an interior rusher. Maintaining their career-best level of play should also be a priority, as regression can be painful at this position. See the 2021 Colts.

Indianapolis could consider a No. 1-caliber edge rusher if he falls to this pick, such as Alabama's Dallas Turner or Florida State's Jared Verse. But it feels like they'll have a sharp cut-off to avoid spending the No. 15 pick on a player who won't start.

8. Ballard is counting Pittman as part of his 2024 roster, but he still spoke up the need for more explosive plays and more yards after the catch.

The explosive plays can largely come organically. Getting Richardson healthy adds a 4.4-second 40-yard dash runner at quarterback who can also influence defenders away from his running back, which will now be a 4.3 runner in Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are also hopeful they'll get something out of Jelani Woods with a new training staff, and he averaged 12.5 yards per catch as a rookie before missing last season with hamstring issues.

The return of Richardson should also create more explosive deep passes with Alec Pierce, but those are low-percentage in nature. There's still a lot to unpack in his downfield game, but expecting him to break out as a versatile underneath piece isn't as realistic, a source with knowledge of Indianapolis' personnel told Indy Star.

The yards after the catch will need to come from somewhere new.

Who the Colts should target at No. 15

9. That's where Brock Bowers and a rising group of wide receivers have become my focus.

Bowers has been the popular name around here for a while, given how dominant he was as Georgia's leading receiver for three straight years and how long it's been since the Colts had a tight end anything like that. As the best YAC tight end in years, Bowers spoke up how he loves to catch the ball in the flats, and you can envision Steichen's run-pass-option game and tight end screens being an instant fit.

It's hard to know if Bowers can make it to No. 15, though, given the drop-off at the position. And you can't force a tight end with this pick if it isn't Bowers.

That's where the receiving class can come in as a pivot. That's the group that stole the show at the combine.

It's deep and electric this season, so though it seems like the Colts won't have a shot at Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers or Washington's Rome Odunze, it still feels like they can land a great player.

LSU's Brian Thomas is soaring up the board after he ran a 4.33 40 at 6-foot-3. Texas' Adonai Mitchell had basically the same electrifying performance, ripping off a 4.34 40 at 6-2. Given the catch radius, athletic scores and production in major conferences, they fit right into Ballard's wheelhouse.

Throw in Florida State's Keon Coleman, Oregon's Troy Franklin and the new 40-yard dash record holder in Texas' Xavier Worthy, and the Colts will have plenty of first-round possibilities to explore at their pick or at spots available on a trade back.

10. That is why pass catcher is starting to feel like the most likely first-round target. The Colts need more of them even with Pittman sticking around, and they want them to be cost-controlled with what they have to pay Pittman. Given the options, it feels like a spot the Colts can lock in on by trusting their board and ability to trade down and still come away happy.

Aside from playing with a backup quarterback, the Colts ultimately fell just short of the playoffs last season because their young cornerbacks couldn't hold up on the perimeter, they didn't have a dominant edge rusher and they didn't have enough pass catchers to kill teams that zeroed in on Pittman and Downs.

The first pick must answer one of these problems. Free agency has to tackle another. It'll begin with a Pittman tag or extension, and then the wheels will start to move.