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  #21  
Old 04-02-2018, 07:38 PM
rm1369 rm1369 is offline
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But here's the rub - not everyone agrees who the 4th or 5th QB choice is. For example, if Baker Mayfield is left after 3 other QBs have been taken, it's likely that someone has him more highly rated on their board. Hence, while you're correct that Denver might not take him if they don't view him as elite, someone else (or several someone elses) might be willing to trade into Denver's slot to grab him. And they'll think they got a bargain for doing so. Without a trade, I'd agree that 4 QBs being taken in the first five is unlikely. But there's nearly always a trade when QBs are up for grabs, so I don't think that a no-trade scenario is likely.

By way of example, the Jets just traded significant draft capital to the Colts just for the opportunity to take whoever is left after the first two picks have been selected. And they don't even know who they might get to choose from. These QB-needy teams are desperate, and I think the success of last year's QB crop is fueling this somewhat
I agree the fact there doesn’t seem to be any consensus about the top QBs could mean everyone finds the right fit in the top 5, I just don’t see it as the most likely scenario. I’d bet on 3 QBs taken in the top 5. I see 4 unlikely but plausible. And I see 5 as completely unlikely.

Barkley is supposedly a generational talent and the consensus best player in the draft. Nelson is supposedly as sure a prospect as you will find at a time where oline play is considered subpar across the league. And Chubb is a top talent at the 2nd most important position in the league at a time when no pass rushers were available in free agency and the positional talent in the draft is considered low. Any team moving back at this point likely misses out on those players since teams drafting 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 don’t need QBs. Can it happen? Sure. But to me that’s a lot to come together for 4 or 5 QBs to go when none are really considered elite prospects.
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  #22  
Old 04-02-2018, 07:44 PM
Dam8610 Dam8610 is offline
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Not sure if my comment came off as a criticism of Ballard, but it certainly wasn’t meant to be. I don’t at all agree with his work in free agency, but that doesn’t mean I dislike him completely or disagree with everything he is doing. The trade back was a great move IMO whether Chubb makes it to 6 or not. I’m just not nearly as convinced as you seem to be that 1) Chubb will make it to 6, or 2) that he is Ballard’s guy and ultimate target. I simply think Ballard has a top tier of 4 players and he will gladly take any of them. Or move back if someone offers enough value to do so. I don’t at all believe he is married to any specific player. Not enough for them to be considered “Ballard’s guy”. Which to me is smart - especially considering I think he is looking long term in the rebuild. I don’t believe he feels he has to have a pass rusher next year because I think he knows the roster isn’t going to contend next year anyway. He will take whomever he thinks will ultimately be the best player. Which is why I think Edmunds may very well be the mystery 4th player. And to me, whoever that mystery player is should be considered “Ballard’s guy” as it appears he’s elevated them in to the top tier along with the consensus big 3 - Barkley, Chubb, and Nelson.
I can't see Edmunds being the 4th guy, I might have him as the 4th best LB. I know his measurables are off the charts, but his tape shows a stiff hipped two down thumper who will struggle to cover NFL TEs. I could've watched the four worst games of his career, but that's unlikely, and he consistently displayed those traits in every game. The tape is why I'm so high on Chubb. No other defender in this class that I've seen to date has the ability to dominate and take over a game, where he does.
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  #23  
Old 04-02-2018, 08:05 PM
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This is why I’m not convinced 4 or more QBs will go in the top 5. It depends on how the teams evaluate them and how they come off the board. Would you trade significant draft capital for the 4th rated QB on your board? Sounds like a damn good way to get fired if you ask me. Denver is a prime example. Yes they need a QB for the long by haul but do you really think they have a top half first round grade on 4-5 of these QBs? I don’t. They will take one if a guy they rank highly is there, but they aren’t going to grab whatever is leftover just because fans and media think they should. And someone trading up is the same if not worse. It’s possible they fall in a way that everyone gets a guy they believe in, but I don’t see GMs staking their jobs on a move up for their 4th or 5th choice.
That's not how it works though. Teams like certain QB's over others due to their system and personality. I think the knocks on Rosen are overblown. I think the Jets like him and he will fall there. I think the Browns like Allen and Darnold. I think the Giants like Darnold. I also think a few teams covet Baker Mayfield, teams that might be willing to trade up.

Teams don't rank the QB's the same, they identify a guy they like best then they try to maneuver up for him. I think Allen or Mayfield will make it to 5 or 6 and some team will want them.
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Old 04-02-2018, 09:09 PM
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That's not how it works though. Teams like certain QB's over others due to their system and personality. I think the knocks on Rosen are overblown. I think the Jets like him and he will fall there. I think the Browns like Allen and Darnold. I think the Giants like Darnold. I also think a few teams covet Baker Mayfield, teams that might be willing to trade up.

Teams don't rank the QB's the same, they identify a guy they like best then they try to maneuver up for him. I think Allen or Mayfield will make it to 5 or 6 and some team will want them.
I understand and concede that in this group the extreme lack of consensus means it’s possible everyone finds the right fit. Teams won’t rank them the same. As I’ve said, I just don’t see it as likely. To me that’s a lot of things falling together. And if I was Buffalo I’d see how the top 5 shakes out and then only worry about leaping over Miami at 11. Will be a lot cheaper. We’ll see. It will be interesting either way and I’d be happy to be wrong.
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Old 04-02-2018, 09:43 PM
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I can't see Edmunds being the 4th guy, I might have him as the 4th best LB. I know his measurables are off the charts, but his tape shows a stiff hipped two down thumper who will struggle to cover NFL TEs. I could've watched the four worst games of his career, but that's unlikely, and he consistently displayed those traits in every game. The tape is why I'm so high on Chubb. No other defender in this class that I've seen to date has the ability to dominate and take over a game, where he does.
I don’t watch much college ball and I certainly don’t break down game tape so admittedly my knowledge of the players in the draft is primarily limited to other people’s scouting reports. I see Edmunds as the possible 4th player only because of the sky high potential most reports rave about with him and my belief Ballard is taking a longer term view for building the roster. I have no idea if that potential is real or not. Personally from my limited knowledge I’d prefer Chubb as well.
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:06 PM
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I don’t watch much college ball and I certainly don’t break down game tape so admittedly my knowledge of the players in the draft is primarily limited to other people’s scouting reports. I see Edmunds as the possible 4th player only because of the sky high potential most reports rave about with him and my belief Ballard is taking a longer term view for building the roster. I have no idea if that potential is real or not. Personally from my limited knowledge I’d prefer Chubb as well.
If he's taking the long approach it might be Edmunds. I didn't know he was 19, his poor coverage makes a lot more sense in the context of him having no clue what the hell he was doing, as does so many people ranking him so highly. That said, I think Fitzpatrick is that 4th guy. He's a quick to react, an enforcer and a ballhawk in the secondary, has the cover skills of a corner and the run support of a linebacker. Putting he and Hooker in the same backfield would make throwing the ball very hard on opposing QBs.
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:56 PM
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If he's taking the long approach it might be Edmunds. I didn't know he was 19, his poor coverage makes a lot more sense in the context of him having no clue what the hell he was doing, as does so many people ranking him so highly. That said, I think Fitzpatrick is that 4th guy. He's a quick to react, an enforcer and a ballhawk in the secondary, has the cover skills of a corner and the run support of a linebacker. Putting he and Hooker in the same backfield would make throwing the ball very hard on opposing QBs.
I'm don't think I'm a cynical person, but I"ll admit that I'm always a bit suspicious when a team mentions that they have a "mystery" draft candidate. Seems like a convenient excuse if their preferred draftees are already taken - the team can always say that the person they ended up selecting instead was the mystery candidate they wanted all along.
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Old 04-03-2018, 12:00 AM
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I understand and concede that in this group the extreme lack of consensus means it’s possible everyone finds the right fit. Teams won’t rank them the same. As I’ve said, I just don’t see it as likely. To me that’s a lot of things falling together. And if I was Buffalo I’d see how the top 5 shakes out and then only worry about leaping over Miami at 11. Will be a lot cheaper. We’ll see. It will be interesting either way and I’d be happy to be wrong.
If Buffalo waits until after the 5th pick it may be too late. Even if a QB makes it to the Colts pick, last year showed that teams in Buffalo's position cannot sit back and wait for their preferred candidate to come to them - a lower drafting team can always leapfrog over them to snatch the player away. If there's a QB that you want, you need to move aggressively.
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Old 04-03-2018, 06:01 AM
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If Buffalo waits until after the 5th pick it may be too late. Even if a QB makes it to the Colts pick, last year showed that teams in Buffalo's position cannot sit back and wait for their preferred candidate to come to them - a lower drafting team can always leapfrog over them to snatch the player away. If there's a QB that you want, you need to move aggressively.
Their is something to be said for being aggressive, but I can point to case after case of teams being stupid and wasting draft capital on an unworthy candidate. More than I can point to teams moving up and getting their guy working out. Especially with QBs. Maybe I underestimate how desperate these teams are for a QB - any QB. I see more quantity than quality. Which to me says don’t overpay. For fans and the media it seems the quantity has created a sort of feeding frenzy where everyone HAS to come away with a QB and whoever doesn’t lost and is doomed. We’ll see if the GMs actually fall into that same mentality.

Last edited by rm1369; 04-03-2018 at 06:06 AM.
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  #30  
Old 04-03-2018, 10:28 AM
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Barkley is supposedly a generational talent and the consensus best player in the draft. Nelson is supposedly as sure a prospect as you will find at a time where oline play is considered subpar across the league. And Chubb is a top talent at the 2nd most important position in the league at a time when no pass rushers were available in free agency and the positional talent in the draft is considered low. Any team moving back at this point likely misses out on those players since teams drafting 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 don’t need QBs. Can it happen? Sure. But to me that’s a lot to come together for 4 or 5 QBs to go when none are really considered elite prospects.
All I'd say in response to this is that neither RB nor OG are currently highly valued positions in the NFL, so while these guys are very highly rated I'm not sure that will translate to a top 5 pick (I'll concede maybe Barkley, particularly since Cleveland presumably won't need a QB at #4).

QB, by contrast, has always been the most coveted position, so I think teams are more willing to reach on a good QB - particularly since it has largely worked out well for teams drafting QBs high in the first round over the last few years even though none of the QBs were generational talents like Luck was touted to be when he was drafted. The Cardinals got screwed last year when KC and Houston jumped in front of them to draft QBs, so Buffalo will need to keep this in mind if they decide not to trade up.

All of this is just my guess as to what's going through the teams' minds, and you may certainly be right and only 3 QBs will be taken - in fact, that's what I would have told you I thought would happen if you'd asked me last week. It's just that when I started looking more closely, it seems like the playing board is set up well for 4 QBs to be taken. As Dam highlighted in his post, every one of the top five teams needs a QB. And there are others lingering not far behind (Miami, Buffalo) who have every reason to think hard about trading up. The Colts-Jets trade has only served to intensify this pressure.

The Colts, for their part, are looking at it conservatively and are only willing to assume that two QBs will be drafted in front of them.
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