1. Jacksonville beat Buffalo by dropping its safeties back and taking away the big passing play down the field, but the Jaguars likely won’t employ the same strategy in Indianapolis this week. The best way to pull a team out of an umbrella or shell coverage is to run the ball well, something the Bills have essentially ignored in their offense the past couple of seasons. The Colts, on the other hand, have Jonathan Taylor and a rushing attack that ranks fifth in the NFL in yards and second in yards-per-carry. If Jacksonville dares the Colts to run, Indianapolis will happily oblige.
2. At first glance, Jacksonville’s run defense looks formidable. The Jaguars rank 12th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (103.4 per game) and third in yards per carry (3.79). Take a closer look at their schedule, though, and it becomes clear Jacksonville hasn’t played a lot of teams that run the ball well. When the Jaguars faced Derrick Henry and the Titans, Tennessee rolled up 184 yards on 36 carries.
Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II (23) rushes the ball intercepting a pass Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Will Jonathan Taylor take over the NFL rushing lead?
3. Taylor, who has already racked up 821 rushing yards this season, is currently 116 yards behind Henry for the league lead, and the running back in third place, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb is 100 yards behind Taylor and sitting out this week due to COVID-19 protocols. The Colts’ budding superstar has rushed for 100 yards or more in four of the past six games, and the last time he played the Jaguars, Taylor ripped off a franchise-record 253 yards.
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4. Nyheim Hines is coming off of his best game of the season, piling up 74 rushing yards, 34 receiving yards and 25 return yards in 12 touches, but how much the Colts use their satellite back is likely dependent on the way the Jaguars defense approaches him. For four years now, Hines’ role has been the same, and it’s a role where the touches can vary wildly week to week.
5. Indianapolis has spent the week talking about Jacksonville’s defensive line, but the Jaguars rank 26th in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt. If pressure is going to come from the line, it’s likely to come from the edges. Defensive ends Josh Allen (5.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits) and Dawuane Smoot (3.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hits) have been the most productive Jaguars pass rushers by far, but they’ll face a tough test against Colts tackles Eric Fisher and Braden Smith.
Who ya got?:Colts vs. Jaguars picks, predictions for NFL Week 10
6. Ball security should not be an issue for the Indianapolis offense this week. Jacksonville has forced just five turnovers this season, tied with San Francisco and the Jets for the fewest in the NFL.
Colts T.Y. Hilton will play vs. the Jaguars
7. Plagued by injuries all season long, T.Y. Hilton hasn’t been in the lineup much, but his return this week is a big development for a Colts offense that could use a reliable No. 2 receiver with a knack for providing a deep threat. Hilton’s ability to get deep isn’t the only important trait in this matchup; his knack for settling into holes in the zone will likely be critical against Jacksonville’s defense.
8. Carson Wentz is going to have some chances in the passing game after bouncing back in a big way against New York last week. The Jaguars defense ranks 26th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (272 per game), is tied for 28th in quarterback rating allowed (104.8) and ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards per attempt (a whopping 7.94).
9. Reich is famously aggressive on fourth down, and the Jaguars are an easy mark. Jacksonville has allowed opponents to convert 77.8% of their fourth-down opportunities, tied for 30th in the NFL.
10. The Indianapolis return game hasn’t been as dynamic in 2021 as it’s been in the past couple of seasons, but the Jaguars coverage units might give the Colts a few chances to get on track. Jacksonville ranks 20th in the NFL against punt returners and 29th on kicks.
Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is questionable
11. DeForest Buckner’s back locked up on him earlier this week, and the All-Pro defensive tackle is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Reich is optimistic that Buckner will be able to play, but the Colts will face a tall task if their best defensive lineman cannot go.
12. Rookie defensive end Kwity Paye is coming off of his best game as a pass rusher, and he’ll try to keep it going against a Jaguars offensive line and coaching staff that has actually done a pretty good job protecting No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence this season. Lawrence has taken a respectable 13 sacks, although he could be less mobile this week after suffering a low ankle sprain against the Bills.
13. For all of his natural ability, Lawrence hasn’t produced many big plays as a passer this season. The Jacksonville rookie is averaging a paltry 6.2 yards per attempt, the Jaguars are tied for 26th in the NFL with just 23 passing plays of 20 yards or more this season, and it’s not necessarily because he’s getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Lawrence is averaging 2.88 seconds from snap to throw this season, a figure that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL and a tick behind Wentz (2.87).
14. Lawrence can typically hold onto the ball a little longer because of his mobility, which is why his ankle injury could play a key role in this game. If Lawrence is compromised — he was limited on Wednesday and Thursday — and forced to stay in the pocket more, the Colts pass rush could have more chances for sacks.
15. An Indianapolis defense that leads the NFL with 20 takeaways is going to have its chances on Sunday. Lawrence has thrown nine interceptions. Only Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Carolina’s Sam Darnold and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes have thrown more, and a Colts secondary that has struggled to limit yardage in the passing game overall has retained its ability to get its hands on interceptions.
16. The only player the Colts have ruled out of Sunday’s game is cornerback Xavier Rhodes, but it’s debatable how much his absence will affect the defense. Rhodes, who has been battling a calf injury all season long, has looked nothing like he did in 2020, and his replacement, likely second-year cornerback Isaiah Rodgers, is building momentum despite some growing pains.
Jaguars receivers vs. Colts pass defense
17. Lawrence does have receiving weapons capable of taking advantage of a Colts pass defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in passer rating allowed (104.4), 27th in yards per attempt (7.6) and 30th in completion percentage (69.3). Veteran Marvin Jones has 36 catches for 399 yards this season, Laviska Shenault has 32 catches for 343 yards and tight end Dan Arnold has picked up 248 yards on 22 grabs.
18. The weakest point on the Indianapolis defense right now is safety. Starters Khari Willis (calf/knee) and Julian Blackmon (torn Achilles) are on injured reserve, and teams have attacked replacements Andrew Sendejo and George Odum in the passing game. Indianapolis expects to get veteran defensive back T.J. Carrie back this week, but it’s likely he’d be on a pitch count, and it sounds like the Colts would keep him at his preferred cornerback position for those limited snaps.
19. Jacksonville running back James Robinson is listed as questionable this week, and if he can play, the Jaguars will likely try to establish the running game, even against a Colts defense that has been among the league’s best against the run this season. Robinson is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and the Jaguars will try to get it to him in a variety of different ways.
20. The Indianapolis defense has been pedestrian on third down this season, allowing opponents to convert on a 21st-ranked 41.67% of their third downs, but this week the Colts face a Jacksonville offense that has been abysmal on the NFL’s most important down. The Jaguars have converted just 29.79% of their third-down opportunities in 2021, a mark that ranks dead last in the NFL.
21. Now that second-round pick Dayo Odeyingbo has two games under his belt after returning from a torn Achilles tendon last offseason, it will be interesting to see if his share of the snaps continues to increase; Odeyingbo played 16 snaps in his NFL debut against the Titans and 25 against the Jets last Thursday.
22. Return man Jamal Agnew is a threat to take a kick to the house at any time; he already has a 102-yard kickoff return for a touchdown this season and a 109-yard return of a missed field goal for another score.
23. From the sounds of it, kicker Michael Badgley has a chance to keep the Colts’ job permanently. Badgley’s been perfect on four field goals and 17 extra points in his four games in Indianapolis so far.
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11-13-2021, 02:14 PM
Things to know sunday
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