The Colts will not be picking No. 1 in this draft because the Panthers now own that pick. They won't be picking at No. 2 either, because that one belongs to the AFC South rival Texans.
It's a dangerous spot to be in.
The first big domino of the NFL Draft fell Friday, when the Bears traded the No. 1 pick to the Panthers for a historic haul that includes two first-round picks, two second-round picks and star wide receiver D.J. Moore, ESPN reported. The Panthers came up from the No. 9 pick, which explains why the return was so large.
Moore ended up becoming a turning point in the conversation, which took shape at the combine. Once the Bears committed to building around Justin Fields, they became committed to finding him weapons in a spring where the draft and free agent classes are down. Last fall, they sent a second-round pick to the Steelers for Chase Claypool, who produced 140 yards in seven games. That pick ended up being the No. 32 selection.
Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard has the biggest draft pick of his career coming up with the No. 4 selection in this year's NFL Draft.
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The Colts' best chance at matching that offer was by including Michael Pittman Jr., but he's a different type of receiver than Moore is. A first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Moore has compiled three different seasons of at least 1,100 yards despite playing with a rotating cast of quarterbacks. He's a 6-foot, 210-pound separator who can adjust quickly to anyone he plays with, avoiding a duplication of the big-bodied skill set the Bears just acquired in Claypool and the lean, speedy version they have in 5-11, 174-pound Darnell Mooney.
Pittman Jr. is more of a contested catch and yards after catch player at this stage. He has topped 1,000 yards once in three seasons with his own rotating cast of quarterbacks. It's possible to weigh the two receivers' long-term potential evenly, but beyond acquiring talent, trades are about contracts. Moore is signed through 2025 on a deal that will pay him an average of $17 million a season, which is looking archaic in this new wide receiver market. Pittman Jr. is entering the final year of his contract and appears primed to test that market in free agency.
Multiple media outlets have reported Moore was the key to the deal, putting the Colts at a severe disadvantage.
Indianapolis' best lane was to sell the Bears and coach Matt Eberflus on players he admired during his four years with the Colts, such as DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore II, Ryan Kelly and others. None of them can answer the receiving void like D.J. Moore could, though. Because of Fields, that edged the need for future draft picks.
When Ballard spoke at the combine, he sounded as if he knew he wasn't trading for the No. 1 pick. He predicted he'd land the best player in the draft at No. 4.
"This is what's great right now: Everybody has just automatically stamped that you've gotta move up to (No.) 1 to get it right," Ballard said then. "I don't know that I agree with that. I don't."
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It's what he has to believe now that he won't have the top choice of quarterbacks, or likely the second choice either. The Texans select right behind the Panthers, and the worst-kept secret at the combine was how much they love Alabama's Bryce Young. That could be just fine to Ballard, a traditionally traits-based scout, if he has issues with Young's 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame.
But he has to worry about more than just losing out on one player now. If the Panthers don't take Young, the Texans are expected to. If they do take Young, Houston can offer the pick up for sale, and it's almost certain that it will not trade with a division rival to set up a quarterback of the future.
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Ballard needs to believe in Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis based on where his team sits now. It could work out to where his No. 1 choice makes it to the third pick and he makes a swap with the Cardinals to secure him for a fraction of what it would have cost to go to No. 1. By keeping the 2024 first-round pick, he'd have a chance to land either a left tackle or a No. 1 wide receiver, which are critical pieces in making a young quarterback work.
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud could now become the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, if the Carolina Panthers decide to select him.
But without knowing what the Panthers will do, Ballard's placing a bet on multiple quarterbacks as well as the coach he just hired to get the most out of them. Steichen could just be the man for the moment, with the success he found with Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, who cover every end of the spectrums of athleticism, accuracy and experience.
But it's still a bet on a first-year coach to create some magic with a rookie quarterback, and not the first one off the board. For Ballard, that's the price of keeping together the roster he built, the one he's betting was held back by the quarterback position.
This is Ballard, unwavering, unpressured, in his element. He said he was dogmatic, and sometimes that means letting another team overpay for its peace of mind.
He's allowing the pressure to rise. Another bidding war will likely begin with the No. 3 pick, whether it's Young, Stroud, Richardson or Levis still available. And wherever the Colts pick, they know the end result has to be the same in the end.
"We can take one as an organization and y’all are going to celebrate it and say, ‘We have got the savior for the Colts.’ And then if he doesn’t play well, ‘Why did you take that guy?’" Ballard said after the season.
"You’ve got to be right. We’ve got to be right."
In the end, nobody will care what it cost or didn't cost to land a certain quarterback if he's the one to change a franchise. That's still the tightrope the Colts are walking on, now just on a thinner thread than before.
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03-12-2023, 09:58 AM
Why the Colts didn't trade up to No. 1 — and the dangerous spot it puts them
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