The 2023 Plan

[Ironshaft]

At this point, after only two games, I think that the season is already “lost” for a chance for this team to be in any kind of serious playoff contention. I am not discounting that the team could get on a run, win some games and potentially sneak into the playoffs but even if we do, there is something seriously missing from the composition of the team.

In fact, I think that it is much more likely that we will be in contention for a top five draft pick than a playoff run. Regardless of what we though our talent level on the field was prior to the season starting, the first two games have shown that our talent level is lacking but more importantly, the heart and fire of the team is lacking. This Colts team lacks passion about winning.

As some sports writer pointed out, over the past three games, the Colts have been outscored something like 70-6 through the first three quarters of each game. That is against JAX, HOU and JAX. Those teams are going no where against the rest of the league but they have taken the Colts out behind the woodshed and beat them like a red-headed step-child.

There is something wrong with the composition of this team. It cannot be one or two players missing (Leonard, Pittman). It is a systemic problem that needs to be completely burned out from the roots.

The Plan:

- Ballard. I am on the fence about Ballard. On one hand, I appreciate greatly his “system” of talent evaluation, his management of the salary cap, his ability to draft certain guys who end up performing well. However, he also makes bets on his talent evaluation that have been much, much, much less successful. Going into the season 2022 season with a journeyman left tackle backed up by a 3rd round raw rookie was a terrible bet. Bringing in no experienced wide receiver depth this season was a terrible bet. Betting on Yannick appears, at this point, to have been a bad bet. Continuing to draft physical studs who are “raw” and need time…..and time…..and time to develop looks to be a bad bet. I am good if Jim Irsay decides to fire him and I am fine if he returns on a SHORT leash.

- Coaching Staff. Needs to go. All of them. Top to bottom. Whomever is the new Head Coach needs complete freedom to bring in “their” guys. Who that head coach is? Not a clue. But it is time for Jim to make another big decision for the franchise and we as the fans need to hope he gets it right.

- Retain every player on their rookie contract for training camp next season. They are cheap and there is no reason to not retain them. Evaluate them in training camp and pick the best guys.

- There are no Colts scheduled for Restricted Free Agency in 2023 so no early decisions need to be made there.

- Every player on a veteran contract needs to be evaluated on their ability to fit into the next coaching scheme and their ability to contribute to the team. No one should be given a “pass” just because of draft status or past contributions. I don’t want anyone retained that would not fit into the new coach’s philosophy of how to team build. Not just play on the field but attitude in the locker room as well. No one should be safe. Every single player should be evaluated and judged on their worth to the next coaching staff. No sacred cows.

That being said, there are a two guys who it would be quite painful to cut in 2023:

Quenton Nelson. Would deliver $18m in cap loss if cut rather than retained ($30.8m cap hit vs $12.2m cap hit if he is cut in 2023). Since he is one of our best players, I have little doubt he would pass any review of his performance.

Shaquillie Leonard. He would deliver only a $4m cap loss if cut rather than retained ($24.0m cap hit vs $20.12m cap hit if cut in 2023). Again, since he is one of our best players…

That’s it. Those are the only players in 2023 that would deliver negative cap hit if cut. Every other contract the Colts own would add to the cap space if the player were cut (exception is Alec Pierce but he is on his rookie contract and cheap so he should be retained anyway).

Colts currently only have around $17m in free cap space in 2023 that they could use to sign new free agents. The following veterans would delivery big chunks of addition cap relief:

QB Matt Ryan = $35.200m
DT DeForest Buckner = $19.750m
RT Braden Smith = $19.000m
CB Stephan Gilmore = $9.980m
NT Grover Stewart = $9.375m
CB Kenny Moore = $7.545m
OC Ryan Kelly = $7.875m
RB Nyheim Hines = $3.290m
TE Mo Allie-Cox = $2.920m
PK Rigoberto Sanchez = $2.900m
((I stopped at a cap savings of $2.500m because it becomes pretty small change at that point))

Hard decisions on veterans. The Matt Ryan decision is easy if we end up going top five and getting a new franchise QB. After that, I would trust the next coaching staff and potential GM to decide the player’s worth.

Who would that leave us with? With just rookies and veterans whose cap savings is less than $2.5m if cut?

QB – Nick Foles ($2.1m cap savings if cut), Sam Ehlinger
RB – Jonathan Taylor
WR – Michael Pittman Jr, Alec Pierce, Dezmon Pattmon, Mike Strachan
TE – Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, Andrew Ogletree
OT – Bernard Raimann, Luke Tenuta
OG – Quenton Nelson ($18.600m cap LOSS if cut), Danny Pinter, Will Fries
OC – Wesley French

NT – None
DT – Eric Johnson
DE – Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo,
LB – Shaquille Leonard ($3.790m cap LOSS if cut), JoJo Domann, Grant Stuard)
S – Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, Trevor Denbow
CB – Isaiah Rodgers, Dallis Flowers

Realistically, with a high pick rookie QB, it is at least a two year rebuild and more likely a three year rebuild.

The only real young building blocks the Colts have are: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Shaquille Leonard and Quenton Nelson.

There are some nice “lower” paid guys like: Grover Stewart, Nyheim Hines, Bobby Okereke, Tyquan Lewis and Zaire Franklin who are will be off their rookie contracts in 2023 whom are nice pieces but not building blocks.

I am convinced that the current path will not deliver Colts Nation to the promised land. We need to rebuild the team in a new image. It all has to go and get replaced.

[Lov2fish]

Wish I could thank this post more than once. Dang I like having you back.

[Oldcolt]

I am in complete agreement with you Ironshaft. The fact that the play from last years disaster has not changed but in fact has gotten worse confirms it for me. They won’t but they should start now. Sit players and see what the back ups have. For me the only issue is I am closing in on 70 and am not sure I have another rebuild in me. I also have zero faith in Irsay. He totally sucks at choosing leadership (I’ll give it to him that it is incredibly hard to do). I wish he would let his daughters have a chance. Oh well a blind squirrel and all.

[Hoopsdoc]

If they get embarrassed again Sunday, which I think is likely, does Jim start firing people?

[CletusPyle]

Thank you Ironshaft for all your work here, after Indy beat Buffalo and the 49ers last season, some experts had them as the 5th best team in the league. We all know what happened after that...if Ryan is better than Wentz, and that was the world wide consensus, then how does this team go from a potential AFC championship contender without Ryan, to a potential #5 worst team in the league with Ryan? And if that is true, why should the most amazing and brilliant GM in the Galaxy get to keep his job?

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by Hoopsdoc

If they get embarrassed again Sunday, which I think is likely, does Jim start firing people?

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

Would that be enough to put in back ups to see what we actually have? For me as a fan it would at least give me a reason to watch the games.

[CletusPyle]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

Would that be enough to put in back ups to see what we actually have? For me as a fan it would at least give me a reason to watch the games.

The worst part is another wasted year for Taylor! I'm hoping they shock the world and turn this around!

[Ironshaft]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

i don't think he does. it will be at the end of the year if anyone is fired

I agree. He saw his father act that way and has said in interview after interview that he will not repeat that.

After the season is much more likely.

However, if we are sitting at 0-9-1, all bets are off!

[MeSayDayo]

I am on board with all of this.

I am already asking the questions of just HOW HIGH of a draft pick we might end up with this year. A hell of a lot hinges on that. If it is a top 10 pick, we are in business. If it isn't...what is it going to take to get us there? I am guessing to trade up for one of the top 3 QB's (Assume we have a 12-15 overall pick) we would be giving up this years first, next years first, and another second plus someone like Buckner.

So, here is to hoping that the Colts play the long game, get a look at younger guys/Ehlinger and finally make a big swing at a young franchise QB.

Do you think that a coach and GM would do that when they are already feeling their seats getting warm? I don't.

Therein lies the problem and also the reason why we need to retain Ballard through any sort of transition or rebuild. The rebuilt starts with a bit of a throwaway campaign this season- and I don't expect that to even happen unless we are so bad and winning no games that we have to pull Ryan- or an injury to Ryan.

I also wonder if we keep Ryan around to mentor said rookie through his rookie year. If Ryan is bad enough to get pulled anyway, I imagine he won't be looking for starter work elsewhere or would just retire. I'm okay with either.

If we do land top 5 pick I think we stand pat and are in great shape to surround the kid with talent, as we have another 2 second rounders. If we really want to get savvy and trade Buckner, Nelson, Leonard or JT for a first we may even get to pair up our rookie with another weapon. JT is amazing but only in his prime for another 5 years max.

I completely agree that everything should be on the table. This team needs to realign its assets and build a championship spine to our roster. Part of that comes with building around a rookie QB on a rookie pay scale, which we are already ready to accommodate perhaps.