Draft Targets at #26 and #34

[Lawrence Owen]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

The draft is still a few weeks out, but I think we have enough information to start culling the list of potential targets for the Colts at #26 and #34.

1) There are several players very likely to be selected in the top 25. Based on Ballard's comments, it's doubtful he will trade up to get one of these 16 guys before they're off the board:

• QB: Kyler Murray
• QB: Dwayne Haskins
• QB: Drew Lock
• WR: DK Metcalf
• TE: TJ Hockenson
• OL: Jonah Williams
• OL: Jawaan Taylor
• OL: Andre Dillard
• EDGE: Nick Bosa
• EDGE: Josh Allen
• EDGE: Rashaun Gary
• EDGE: Montez Sweat
• DL: Quinnen Williams
• DL: Ed Oliver
• LB: Devin White
• LB: Devin Bush

2) There are also some highly rated players that either aren't a scheme/character fit or at positions that are very unlikely to be targeted early by the Colts:

Scheme/Character:

• DL: Jerry Tillery (5 technique)
• DL: Dexter Lawrence (2 gap player)
• EDGE: Jachai Polite (character knocks)
• CB: Greedy Williams (better suited for man scheme)
• CB/S: Rock Ya-Sin (likely a slot cover corner)
• CB/S: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (likely a slot cover corner)

Positional Value:

• TE: Noah Fant
• TE: Irv Smith
• RB: Josh Jacobs
• OL: Garrett Bradbury
• OL: Cody Ford
• QB: Daniel Jones
• OL: Erik McCoy
• OL: Dalton Risner
• RB: David Montgomery
• LB: Mack Wilson
• S: Nasir Adderley (strictly a FS)
• S: Deionte Thompson (strictly a FS)

That significantly narrows the list of potential targets at #26 and #34:

Potential Targets:

• DT: Jeffrey Simmons
• DT: Christian Wilkins
• DT: Dre'mont Jones
• EDGE: Brian Burns
• EDGE: Clelin Ferrell
• EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson
• S: Jonathan Abram
• S: Taylor Rapp
• CB: Byron Murphy
• CB: Deandre Baker
• WR: AJ Brown
• WR: Marquise Brown
• WR: N'Keal Harry
• WR: Riley Ridley
• WR: Deebo Samuel
• WR: Terry McLaurin
• WR: Paris Campbell

Obviously some of these guys will be off the board, so the list becomes even shorter when the Colts are on the clock at #26 and #34. I list the defenders first because I'm fairly confident that's the direction they will take. The list of WRs is a bit long because I'm not 100% sure what the Colts would value more. Do they want a slot guy? A speed threat to stretch the field?

What do you guys think? Any names you think should be moved around? Any names you would add?

I disagree on Tillery. I think he could play a role similar to Hunt at the NT position.
But other than that, I think you did really good work dissecting.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Well if Brian Burns is there, obviously take him, a legitimate pass rusher is the most important thing to have outside of a QB. Almost every source suggests he won't be, however, and Tillery might be the best available at 26. I'd take Tillery over Christian Wilkins, and I don't think the value is there at CB or SS. I haven't really watched any of Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen yet, but Tillery vs. Stanford is the best performance I've seen by a DL prospect since Chubb vs. FSU. To me, the tape and the measurables both show a great fit for the Colts defense, so I'd take him unless one of the guys like Sweat or Oliver falls to 26.

If it were me, I’d be trying to line up trades into the 10-15 range to get Burns. According to the value chart, 26 & 59 gets you around 14. I’d be ecstatic to walk away from the first two rounds with Burns and one of those other guys I listed at 34 (my preference would be Simmons if he makes it there).

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

If it were me, I’d be trying to line up trades into the 10-15 range to get Burns. According to the value chart, 26 & 59 gets you around 14. I’d be ecstatic to walk away from the first two rounds with Burns and one of those other guys I listed at 34 (my preference would be Simmons if he makes it there).

If the Colts are trading up that high, I'd want Montez Sweat or Ed Oliver out of the deal. If they're trading up for Burns or Ferrell, I'd prefer to go to the 16-20 range and use picks 26 & 89 for the trade up.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

I like Jones as well, but feel that he may be redundant with Lewis and Autry.

Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

If the Colts are trading up that high, I'd want Montez Sweat or Ed Oliver out of the deal. If they're trading up for Burns or Ferrell, I'd prefer to go to the 16-20 range and use picks 26 & 89 for the trade up.

I can understand the argument on Sweat. I see a higher ceiling compared to Burns, but I think Burns has the higher floor. Maybe it's from watching Freeney and Mathis all those years, but I prefer the athletic pass rusher who I know already has three moves (Burns). Sweat has more power and could develop into a beast, but I'm very confident Burns would be a perennial 10 sack guy in the Colts system.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.

I've seen some mocks with Jones going in Rd3, which I could absolutely see. I can't see him as an EDGE or interior lineman in a 30 front, so his pool of teams is already limited. He could be really good value to the Colts at 59 or maybe they move up a bit like they did with Lewis last year.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.

I've seen a lot of mocks that have Tillery at 26, and I like that idea a lot more after watching his tape. His RAS score being high likely means he's high on Ballard's board as well. I'd honestly be really excited if the picks at 26 and 34 were Tillery and Simmons. They're not flashy picks, but they could solidify the DL for the next half decade.

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

I can understand the argument on Sweat. I see a higher ceiling compared to Burns, but I think Burns has the higher floor. Maybe it's from watching Freeney and Mathis all those years, but I prefer the athletic pass rusher who I know already has three moves (Burns). Sweat has more power and could develop into a beast, but I'm very confident Burns would be a perennial 10 sack guy in the Colts system.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled with Burns, I just wouldn't give up as much value to get him as I would to get Sweat or Oliver. If Eberflus is following the DL model they use in Dallas, Montez Sweat is his wet dream. He's big, long, fast, and has pretty much every attribute for which a DL built in that mold would ever look.

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

I've seen some mocks with Jones going in Rd3, which I could absolutely see. I can't see him as an EDGE or interior lineman in a 30 front, so his pool of teams is already limited. He could be really good value to the Colts at 59 or maybe they move up a bit like they did with Lewis last year.

If Jones is there at 59, absolutely pull the trigger, maybe even if the picks at 26 and 34 were used on Tillery and Simmons. Having DT be a strength of the team for once would be a new and interesting concept.

[VeveJones007]

Per Matt Miller today:

Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons would have had a top-five overall grade on my big board before an ACL injury suffered during training, but multiple NFL scouts and decision-makers told me this week they still expect the pass-rushing lineman will be a top-20 pick.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Per Matt Miller today:

That means someone else with value drops, then. I can't see a team burning a top 20 pick on an injured player, though. That said, this says a lot about what the NFL thinks of his character.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

That means someone else with value drops, then. I can't see a team burning a top 20 pick on an injured player, though. That said, this says a lot about what the NFL thinks of his character.

I think it also speaks to the lack of elite talent at the top end of the draft. If there were 30 guys with 1st round grades, teams would be less likely to take a chance that Simmons comes back at 100% after injury.