ColtFreaks.com - Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum   ColtFreaks.com Home Page

Go Back   ColtFreaks.com - Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum > Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum > Indianapolis Colts Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-01-2017, 07:51 AM
sherck's Avatar
sherck sherck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Posts: 3,746
Thanks: 1,780
Thanked 1,189 Times in 523 Posts
Default June 1st 2017 look at the 53-man roster; One Man’s View

Happy June, Freaks!

Some of this is judgement on previous year’s performances.
Some of this is based on contracts handed out by our new General Manager.
Some of this is based on comments by our coaching staff.
Some of it is just pure guesswork by myself.
Take all of it for what it is worth…..one man’s opinion.

Quarterback (2):
Starter = Andrew Luck
Depth = Scott Tolzien
Cuts = Stephen Morris, Phillip Walker
Notes: I could see the possibility of Morris beating out Tolzien for backup duties if Tolzien has a poor pre-season; however, I think the spot is Tolzien’s to lose. The Colts liked Morris well enough to keep him on the 53 man roster in 2016 for the first month in order to get him “past” teams establishing their QB depth before cutting him on the 8th of September and then signing him on their practice squad once he passed waivers. If Morris has another strong off-season and pre-season, this is another one of those spots where Ballard could try to get younger at but I would still be betting on Tolzien as QB2. Scott has done everything that the team has asked of him and performed well in his one start last year. We “might” keep 3 QBs on the roster if Luck is slow to return from his shoulder injury but I think that if we do, it will be like the 2016 scenario where we are holding Morris in order to get him to our practice squad.

Running Back (4):
Starter = Frank Gore
Depth = Robert Turbin, Marlon Mack, Josh Ferguson
Cuts = Dalton Crossan, Brandon Radcliff
Notes: About the only “drama” at RB is putting Ferguson as RB4. I only put him there because he was drafted in 2016 and management seemed to like him last year. I saw virtually nothing out of him that would lead me to believe that he should be a RB in the NFL but the Colts also have brought in almost zero competition for him other than two 2017 UDFA rookies. I could see Ferguson being beat out but my guess is that he is given another year to show his stuff (if he has any). As a minor point, some would say that we might only keep 3 RBs on the roster but with Gore being 86 years old, I don’t think that is probable. RBs, especially older ones, often get nicked up and are not at 100% and if that happens, then you are down to only 2 RBs for an upcoming game. I don’t think the team plays it that close. Sure, you could elevate from the practice squad quickly but I think we keep 4 RBs.

Tight End (3):
Starter = Jack Doyle
Depth = Erik Swoope, Brandon Williams
Cuts = Mo Allie-Cox, Darrell Daniels, Colin Jeter
Notes: I think we end up playing a whole lot more 1TE sets in 2017 than we did in 2016 because we have greater depth at WR than we do at TE and some of our WRs are big enough to act as “possession” type receivers if needed (Moncrief 6’2” 222 pounds, Aiken 6’2” 215 pounds). That is not to say that we will never see Doyle and Swoope on the field together but I think it will be a whole lot less often than we saw Allen and Doyle on the field together (we played 2TE sets the most in the NFL last year). I think Williams will be an in-line blockers with Doyle on short yardage situations and mostly a Special Teams player. I could see him getting beat out (younger……younger….the drum beat goes on) by one of the rookies if they have a more well-rounded game but my betting coin would be on the NFL experience winning out.

Wide Receiver (6):
Starters = T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief
Depth = Kamar Aiken, Phillip Dorsett, Chester Rogers, Quan Bray
Cuts = Trey Griffey, Bug Howard, Marcus Leak, JoJo Natson, Al-Damion Riles, Tevaun Smith
Notes: The top 4 are pretty much set; I don’t see any of them being challenged for their spot in the rotation. Spots 5 and 6 could be up for grabs but both of those kids have shown a lot in the past year (Rogers) or two (Bray) that make them fine depth receiver options. We have a nice mix of small/fast guys (Hilton, Dorsett, Bray) and big/possession guys (Moncrief, Aiken, Rogers) in order to “load up” on both kinds of routes as required. If Luck is healthy, then I see this being a big year for our passing game.

Offensive Tackles (3):
Starters = Anthony Castanzo, Le’Raven Clark
Depth = Zach Banner
Cuts = Fahn Cooper, Blake Muir, Jerry Ugokwa, Jeremy Vunjovich, Andrew Wylie
Notes: I only have 8 offensive linemen named making the cut but I guarantee that the Colts will carry at least nine on their 53 man roster. They have carried 9 or 10 guys on the active roster since when Howard Mudd was hired as the O-line coach. However, I have ZERO idea whom that 9th (or 10th) guy might be. My money would be on Cooper, Vunjovich or Wylie but any of the “cuts” guys named under OT or OG would not surprise me. Most were pretty accomplished in college and I am surprised that some of them were not drafted. Banner strikes me as a “redshirt” guy sort of like Clark last year whom the Colts have little intention of playing in 2017 while they “reshape” his body. If injury comes, I expect Haeg to be the OT3 to actually play with Banner or Mewhort being the OT4/OT5 on the roster. Good appears to be limited on handling speed and I think he pretty much only plays inside and Schwenke backs up any of the three interior positions.

Offensive Guard (3):
Starters = Jack Mewhort, Joe Haeg
Depth = Denzelle Good
Cuts = Adam Redmond, Deyshawn Bond
Notes: Redmond could surprise me in making the final roster but I see him as being inferior to either Good or Schwenke; both of whom provide interior depth. I think our 9th guy has to be able to kick outside to OT and I don’t think either of these guys can do that.

Offensive Center (2):
Starter = Ryan Kelly
Depth = Brian Schwenke
Cuts = None
Notes: Kelly had a nice rookie campaign and I hope he takes a 2nd year leap and becomes a top ten OC in the NFL. I like having a 4 year starting veteran as the depth as well as being able to play OG.

Offense = 24 spots (2 QB, 4 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR, 9 O-Linemen)

Special Teams (3):
Starters = PK Adam Vinatieri, P Jeff Locke, LS Thomas Hennessy
Cuts = P Rigoberto Sanchez
Notes: I don’t know how often a pro-bowl Special Teams group is broken up like the Colts was in 2017 but this sucks. I don’t blame Patty Mac at all for retiring while he still has his health but that is a HUGE hole. Blowing up Overton in order to get younger/cheaper seems….a bit weird to me. The $600k saved off the cap is peanuts. I don’t know but there is a lot of “newness” in our special teams now. I really like what Sanchez brings to the field from his time kicking in Hawaii and I don’t think it is out of the question that he could beat out Locke for punting duties in 2017 and perhaps succeed Vinatieri as our placekicker whenever Adam decides to retire. I think there is a small chance that we keep a “kickoff specialist” on the roster (like we did with Danny Knight) in order to “save” Sanchez for the future but I would bet that he needs to beat out Locke in order to make the final roster.

Sanchez’s college punting stats:
2016 / 70 punts / 44.6 yds avg / 39.3 yds net / 21 inside 20 / 4 touchbacks
2015 / 75 punts / 45.3 yds avg / 41.6 yds net / 29 inside 20 / 2 touchbacks

Locke’s last 2 years NFL punting stats:
2016 / 74 punts / 42.6 yds avg / 39.0 yds net / 34 inside 20 / 3 touchbacks
2015 / 66 punts / 41.6 yds avg / 37.8 yds net / 23 inside 20 / 5 touchbacks

More Sanchez stats:

2016 / 71 kickoffs / 59.6 yds avg (to 5.4 yard line in NFL) / 25 touchbacks / 4 out of bounds
2015 / 23 kickoffs / 64.2 yds avg (to 0.8 yard line in NFL) / 14 touchbacks / 0 out of bounds

2016 / 13 of 13 FGs / 49/50 PATs / 6/6 from 20-29 yards, 5/5 from 30-39 yards, 2/2 from 40+
2015 / 08 of 11 FGs / 23/24 PATs / 2/3 from 20-29 yards, 1/1 from 30-39 yards, 5/7 from 40+

I like that he has kicked almost 100 “game” kickoffs in the last 2 seasons while Locke has kicked one (for 44.0 yards). I like that his punting is on par with what Locke has done in the past 2 years. I like that he can be a backup on placekicking for the 44 year old Vinatieri. I could see Sanchez beating Locke out.

Special Teams = 3 spots (1 PK, 1 LS, 1 P)

Nose Tackle (2):
Starter = Jonathan Hankins
Depth = Grover Stewart
Cuts = Al Woods
Notes: Yeah, I know we signed Al Woods as a NT in the off-season prior to signing Hankins and drafting Stewart but I just don’t see where Woods fits into the mold anymore. He is listed at only 307 pounds which is WAY light for the type of NT Pagano wants to play (although Parry has done so for the past 2 seasons) and he shows little explosiveness to try and swap over to the DT slot. At his best, he is not very much impact. I went back and watched the 2nd game against TEN last season and just do not see much from Woods that Hankins and Stewart don’t probably do better and younger. I still have not seen good numbers on Woods contract but it is rumored that there was only $500k guaranteed which would mean that cutting him would free up about $2m in 2017 cap (his non-guaranteed salary) and $2.5m in 2018 cap space. I just don’t see where Woods fits on the roster.

Defensive Tackle (3):
Starter = Henry Anderson
Depth = Hassan Ridgeway, T.Y. McGill
Cuts = Josh Boyd, David Parry
Notes: I think that Anderson could easily be moved to the DE position to rotate with Langford for a (hopefully) great 1-2 punch from that position while Ridgeway and McGill hold down the DT spot but for now, it appears that they want Anderson taking the 1-gap “knifing” DT position in the defense. He was excellent at it during the first part of his 2015 rookie year before injury and I hope that now being 18 months away from his injury puts him back in top form. Ridgeway had a good rookie year and I hope he makes a good 2nd year leap. In the end, I think McGill, Parry and Hunt are fighting for the 6th and 7th D-line slots as depth for multiple positions (DT/NT = McGill, Parry, DE/NT = Hunt). I don’t see enough out of Woods, Sokoli or Thomas to think that they can push those guys off the 53 man roster. We have, at times, kept 8 D-linemen on the roster when we have multiple injuries but they appear to prefer to only keep 7 on the active roster if everyone is healthy.

Defensive End (2):
Starter = Kendall Langford
Depth = Marcus Hunt
Cuts = Kristjan Sokoli, Jhaustin Thomas
Notes: I have an irrational good feeling about Hunt as a 3-4 DE. He is insanely strong with a great frame but lacks the explosiveness required as a 4-3 DE which is what CIN was trying to play him as. His work against the run over the past 2 seasons has been good; his pass rush sucks. He can engage the OT and hold him up maintaining 2 gap coverage which is what the DE is required to do. I might be projecting but I could see Hunt making the 53 man roster and being good at it.

Outside Linebacker [RUSH] (3):
Starter = Jabaal Sheard
Depth = Tarell Basham, Barkvious Mingo
Cuts = Garrett Sickels
Notes: 2017 Sheard / Basham / Mingo versus 2016 Mathis / Cole / Ayers. Hmmmm, it should be no contest. We still do not have a “dominate” pass rusher whom DEMANDS the attention of pass protection sets and will have to try and find one at the top of the 2018 draft but, overall, Ballard did a great job in re-inventing the OLB corps and finding some young guys who will be great complementary pass rushers once we get the stud. I am not counting on much from Mingo (and hope I am surprised) but I think Sheard and Basham could make opposing QBs have to work to stay clean in the pocket.

Outside Linebacker [EDGE] (2):
Starter = John Simon
Depth = Akeem Ayers
Cuts = Lavar Edwards, Deiontrez Mount
Notes: I think I like the John Simon signing about the best of any of the 2017 off-season (only rivaled by the Hankins signing). Simon is the kind of “do it all” LBs any great defense needs. He has every tool in his tool bag and can do any job that is required. I think he will be an impact player for us on defense. Ayers is now 2 seasons past his injury and hopefully can get back to the form that saw him as a starter his first 3 years in the league in TEN. There is still work to be done at the OLB positions but we should be in a much better position there than in 2016.

Inside Linebacker (4):
Starters = Sean Spence, Antonio Morrison
Depth = Edwin Jackson, Anthony Walker
Cuts = Jon Bostic, Luke Rhodes
Notes: Other than Spence, I don’t really have a good feel as to the pecking order of the rest of the guys. Walker could start as a rookie, Bostic could be the veteran surprise, and either Morrison or Jackson could step up after their experience last season. We are better than in 2016 with D’Q, Sio Moore, Nate Irving and McNary but I still get upset when I think about the fact that we had the chance to re-sign Jerrell Freeman to a $4m a year contact (Freeman = 110 tackles with 5 PDs in 2016 for Chicago) and Grigson did not. A pretty big mistake there. Oh well, we should be better than in 2016 but the positions is still SCREAMING for a young stud to help man the middle. They should play better with Hankins and Stewart absorbing blocks on the inside.

Strong Safety (2):
Starter = Clayton Geathers
Depth = T.J. Green
Cuts = Mattias Farley, Tyson Graham Jr
Notes: No surprise here; I look forward to seeing if Geathers can put it all together this season and really become impact and I hope that the narrowing of focus for Green lets him get locked into a single position and excel. I would LOVE to have Green really step up and be able to use his physical tools to become a bit of an enforcer in the box. Really shutting down crossing routes and quick slants due to punishing hits would help greatly.

Free Safety (2):
Starter = Darius Butler
Depth = Malik Hooker
Cuts = Lee Hightower, Andrew Williamson
Notes: I put Butler as the starter only because of Hooker’s injury and rookie-ness. Hooker will play as much as the coaches feel comfortable with him playing. I could also see a 5th safety being retained but if so, I have zero idea whom of the remaining bunch would be the leading contender.

Cornerback (6):
Starters = Vontae Davis, Qunicy Wilson
Nickle = Darryl Morris
Depth = Rashaan Melvin, Chris Milton, Nate Hairston
Cuts = Dante Blackmon, Tevin Mitchel, Reginal Porter
Notes: No big surprises here. I like Melvin, Morris and Milton well enough but am glad that they have been pushed down the depth chart by Wilson. A ton is going to be put on Wilson’s shoulders in 2017 and I hope that he responds well. Lots of experience back there with Davis (9th year), Morris (5th year) and Melvin (5th year) along with Butler (9th year) to make sure that Wilson and Hooker are in the right positions with the right assignments. Still need someone else going forward to pair with Wilson long term since Davis is a free agent at the end of the year and I don’t know if Ballard will re-sign a 30 year old CB to anything more than a 1 year contact (turns 30 in May 2018).

Defense = 26 spots (7 D-Line, 5 OLB, 4 ILB, 4 Safety, 6 CB)

Obviously, Training Camp can change the bottom spots of any of our position groups but it appears that except for Special Teams (Hennessy, Rigoberto) that there are not many slots open for UDFAs to make the team this season. OT4, RB4, WR6, TE3 are all spots that I don’t feel like the guy I designated is a really “strong” guy to hold the slot; they could all get beat out.

But on defense? Yeah, I don’t see many UDFAs making the team.

Cheers,
__________________
==============
Thad
The future is so bright; I gotta triple up!
Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to sherck For This Useful Post:
Hoopsdoc (06-02-2017), Pez (06-02-2017)
  #2  
Old 06-01-2017, 10:14 AM
sherck's Avatar
sherck sherck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Posts: 3,746
Thanks: 1,780
Thanked 1,189 Times in 523 Posts
Default

$21.382m = current free cap space
$00.500m = + added for those currently below the top 53 cap hits whom I think will make the team thus lowering the cap hit for those spots
$01.080m = - Spots 52 and 53 on roster
$01.200m = - Practice Squad
$03.000m = - Churn Space
========
$16.602m = Free Cap Space to sign new contracts for 2017

Lots of space left to sign "surprise" camp cuts to help out the team or roll into 2018 which already has around $55m in free cap space available.

Cheers,
__________________
==============
Thad
The future is so bright; I gotta triple up!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-01-2017, 12:22 PM
Dam8610 Dam8610 is offline
Post whore
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 5,995
Thanks: 102
Thanked 1,595 Times in 925 Posts
Default

I hope they try Ayers at ILB. I think he and Spence would be a good starting combo there with Walker rotating in occasionally.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by omahacolt View Post
i was wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-01-2017, 04:39 PM
njcoltfan njcoltfan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 3,457
Thanks: 918
Thanked 832 Times in 490 Posts
Default

Great read Sherck !!! I don't know if I agree with everything, but a great read nonetheless!!

Last edited by sherck; 06-01-2017 at 10:16 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-01-2017, 04:45 PM
smitty46953's Avatar
smitty46953 smitty46953 is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 4,905
Thanks: 3,323
Thanked 1,965 Times in 1,038 Posts
Default

Colts just signed RB Christine Michael which could mean farewell to Josh Ferguson ...
__________________
Never argue with an idiot, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience !!!
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-02-2017, 11:38 AM
FatDT's Avatar
FatDT FatDT is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 4,252
Thanks: 314
Thanked 1,099 Times in 497 Posts
Default

That's a lot to try to respond to. But thanks sherck, we needed something to talk about.

TE and WR - I hope you are right about using less 2TE. We have a top 5 QB and WRs with either the proven ability (Hilton) or the demonstrated potential (Moncrief, Aiken, to a lesser extent Dorsett and Rogers) to make plays consistently. I like Doyle and I'm glad we kept him. I like Swoop's progress. But WR should be the strength of this team.

RB - I'd really like to see Gore get to #3 on the all-time rushing list. With all the pass catchers on this team I wonder if RB passing will stay the same or go down? Christine Michael is not known as much of a pass catcher. Runner only. Makes you wonder if the offense is going in a different direction with the run game this year.

DT/DE - Langford got 7 sacks from the DE position in 2015. So a 5 tech can definitely rush the passer in this defense and is not just monitoring gaps. I don't have the confidence in Hunt that you do. If he makes the team I doubt he'll play many snaps. I do wonder how Anderson will be used going forward. He was very effective even as a rookie at DT. If he is healed and finally makes a jump to improve on what was already very good play his rookie year, would it make that much sense to move him?

ILB - I'd like to try Ayers at ILB too.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
ColtFreaks.com is in no way affiliated with the Indianapolis Colts, the NFL, or any of their subsidiaries.