Colts mailbag 2/2/23

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https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...k/69860315007/

Might want to warm up your wrists, lots of scrolling

Colts mailbag: Is trading for Trey Lance an option at quarterback?
Nate Atkins
Indianapolis Star
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We're in the dog days of the coaching search.

The Colts are making small headway, trimming an interview list of 14 down to eight finalists and making their way through some lengthy second interviews.

They're operating on a different timeline than most of the other openings. The Panthers hired Frank Reich last week, and in a matter of moments Tuesday, the Texans hired Demeco Ryans and the Broncos landed Sean Payton, whittling the remaining openings down to just Indianapolis and Arizona.

That's not a reason to fret, necessarily. Competition for hiring a head coach has dropped significantly. But competition for filling out a staff of top assistants is about to ramp up.

As the Colts look to wrap this up, it's time to get to some questions about the dominoes that could come after they make the big hire:

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has a starting job waiting for him now that Brock Purdy is undergoing surgery.
Question: "Trey Lance is in the mix for Colts QB? Since neither Young or Stroud are considered slam dunks, and the 49ers definitely have a QB surplus, wouldn’t that make some sense. Use #4 for any number of other needs." -- Ken Kobe via email

Answer: It's no secret that Colts owner Jim Irsay, and much of the locker room, has been worn down by the constant churn of veteran quarterbacks. They're tired of hearing that someone can be a multi-year answer only to be looking again the next year. They know the cleanest stop to that cycle is to draft one and give him time to grow.


I do think there's a world where a recently drafted quarterback could offer enough of that, too, if you can feel blown away by the mix of longevity, upside and grade as a prospect while still cashing in on his rookie deal. If Justin Fields were available, for example, I could see the Colts being all over that, but it's starting to sound like they've shut that idea down.

The 49ers appear to be getting close to that place with Trey Lance. Brock Purdy, who led them to the NFC Championship Game, is expected to be out until the summer after he undergoes surgery for a torn UCL. Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as gone, based on the comments Kyle Shanahan made to the media Wednesday. Lance is the only player left on the roster, and Tom Brady isn't an option to sign now either after he announced his retirement. Signing Derek Carr might be the one alternative, but the costs on that move make it far less likely than sticking with Lance.


If the 49ers were to entertain a trade, the Colts could have a higher prospect grade on him than they do Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, but these are not apples-to-apples comparisons. Lance has used up two years of his rookie contract already. He's attempted 31 career passes, and for context, that's 5% of the attempts Fields has made in the NFL. In the past three years, Lance has attempted 61 passes, which is just 13 more than Stroud threw against Michigan. In college and in the NFL total, Lance has attempted 349 passes; Young threw 380 last season alone.

There is no way of knowing who Lance is as a passer, what his ceiling is as a runner, whether he's durable, whether he can translate leadership to the field or what his bad habits are right now. Going back to his junior season at North Dakota State is like jumping in a time machine at this point. It seems like a situation he and 49ers will just have to explore on their own right now.


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INSIDER: What the NFL's four best teams can teach the Colts about finding a coach and QB

Question: "I think 99.9% of us Colts fans agree QB is the No. 1 priority in this draft. What is No. 2? I think WR, but we desperately need OL’s too. What say you? -- Travis Whitton on Twitter



Answer: As we sit here today, it's left tackle. I say that as a blanket statement, meaning if we were stacking positional needs to draft at No. 4 overall, finding a star left tackle would be second only to quarterback. Of course, that conversation changes once they spend that pick on a quarterback.

It's possible that Bernhard Raimann is the answer here, as he has good athletic traits and is highly coachable and showed flashes of both in the second half last year, once the job was his full-time. But his rookie season came with enough understandable struggles given the immense learning curve that it's impossible to know for sure yet. At minimum, the Colts have to explore some veteran options to compete with him for the job in training camp. They can't have the position crater like it did this year, when Matt Pryor wasn't a fit and Raimann wasn't near ready early in the season.

The reason it's No. 2 on the list is because quarterback is No. 1. As the Colts break in a 22-year-old rookie quarterback coming from the college level, the best chance they can give him early on is to feel secure and to keep him healthy. On-field reps are vital to learn opposing defensive schemes, catch up to the speed of players in coverage and build chemistry with new receivers, and it all gets thrown off when that player is having to abandon structure early or worry about the rush when he should be looking at his progressions.

Insulate a quarterback on his blind side and you give yourself a much better chance of avoiding the pitfalls that can bring him down early.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is due for a sizeable pay day soon, with one year remaining on his rookie contract.
Question: "Is there a player you think is ‘untouchable’ to trade up in the draft, or should absolutely anything/any player be on the table?" -- Sarah Schrader on Twitter

Answer: If we're talking about trading up in the first round, the answer is no. No player should prevent the Colts from finally doing what they've needed to do for four years now, which is go find "the guy" at quarterback in the draft.


If there's one guy who stands out in that way to them, and they feel strongly about it, they have to be willing to part with something good to make it happen. Trading players should mean lowering the cost of draft picks, which could align better with the window for the rookie quarterback anyway. So while it would hurt to deal DeForest Buckner or Michael Pittman Jr., I don't think that can be a deal-breaker if, say, Bryce Young is a franchise quarterback in their eyes and the other options are not.

I actually asked this question to Chris Ballard at last year's NFL combine, though it was more about trading for a veteran quarterback. He said then that no player is off-limits, and I think that remains true -- again, if there's "the guy" rather than "a guy" available. That'll be the key distinction to make between Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis. Ballard will and should do what he can to avoid dealing Jonathan Taylor or Pittman Jr., because both are vital to helping that rookie quarterback succeed, but he has to also know that neither will maximize a ceiling without getting that position finally correct.

Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has interest in returning to coach the defense in 2023.
Question: "Will new coach bring in 'his guys' to staff up? What chances current coaches will still be on staff?" -- @TDominoATL on Twitter

Answer: In my experience, a new coach tends to favor hiring his own guys because coaching means working in a foxhole with the same handful of people for half a year, and they want to feel like they'll work well together before the stress sets in. As they start to get buzz for openings, coaches will compile lists and unofficially recruit a potential future staff that they can pitch in the interview to set their plan ahead of someone else's.


But I've seen instances where a new head coach has leaned on the in-house staff. When Matt Nagy got to Chicago, he kept Vic Fangio and members of his defensive staff, which was sort of a no-brainer. When Matt Patricia arrived in Detroit, he was coming from having worked only in New England and had to wait until after the Super Bowl, so he kept much of the Lions' offensive staff and special teams coordinator.

Chris Ballard has been helpful before in recruiting assistants for his head coach. It's a conversation he'll have with specific candidates, and it might appeal more to some than others. An offensive coach could like what he sees in Gus Bradley's defense, which includes two assistants he's held for three straight stops now in linebackers coach Richard Smith and defensive backs coach Ron Milus. That could also appeal to coaches like Rich Bisaccia and Raheem Morris, who have worked with Bradley before. Bradley would welcome a return to Indianapolis in the right situation, which will matter because the Colts will not be his only suitor.


Special teams coach Bubba Ventrone is considered a rising star inside and outside the Colts facility, with great relationships with some of the Colts' core returning players. I have to think many first-time coaches would be interested in keeping that unit strong.

It's hard to know without being in on the interviews, but it's worth noting that teams have to grant permission for assistants under contract to interview with other NFL teams, and the only assistants to depart since Frank Reich's firing were to non-NFL jobs: tight ends coach Klayton Adams to Stanford and assistant offensive line coach Kevin Mawae to Lipscomb Academy.

A number of futures are in limbo across the league, so they'd enjoy clarity sooner rather than later, too.