Insider: A 10-part plan to set the Colts up with a franchise QB and bright future
Nate Atkins
Indianapolis Star
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The Colts finally have a coach, which means that one of the most important offseasons in recent history can now take shape.
Shane Steichen is here to help engineer a path forward from arguably the most chaotic season for any NFL team in 2022. Fresh off a 4-12-1 campaign, the Colts are looking to patch up the culture that took a dip during last season's constant changes and to finally end the quarterback carousel that has haunted the franchise.
To get there, they'll need a well-oiled plan. Here are some steps they could consider as they iron one out:
Greg Roman has a long history of building dominant run games as an offensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Hire an experienced offensive coordinator -- or maybe a pair of them
Though Steichen will call the offensive plays, he'll still hire a coordinator to run the weekly meetings, craft opponent-specific game plans and maximize roles for skill players. It's a big job, especially with a young quarterback, and I fear the Colts going too young here when they'll also have such a young quarterback.
So, here's a suggestion: Pair Greg Roman as offensive coordinator with Pep Hamilton as quarterbacks coach.
Roman owns one of the most diverse blocking schemes in the NFL, a mix of traps and counters and whams that get athletes into space and creates an identity between the line, tight ends and backs. It's a great way to maximize a star running back like Jonathan Taylor and to unleash a mobile quarterback, like he had in Colin Kaepernick, who went to a Super Bowl; and Lamar Jackson, who won the MVP. Outside of the Eagles last year, only one other team was more than 10% better than the NFL average in rushing, according to Football Outsiders: That was Roman's Ravens.
Hamilton has been coaching quarterbacks since the early 2000s and worked with Andrew Luck in two stints, including with the Colts. He was Steichen's quarterbacks coach with the Chargers when they combined to help Justin Herbert win Offensive Rookie of the Year through an explosive vertical attack.
Combine these forces, and you could eventually see a dominant, layered run game with the play-action shots to take advantage of loaded boxes and of the Colts' ascending young pass catchers. Roman and Hamilton did this for two years together at Stanford, including a 12-1 season with Luck. And both are available now.
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INSIDER: 5 names for Shane Steichen to consider for Colts offensive coordinator
Retain Gus Bradley and Bubba Ventrone
Steichen is up against it in building a staff as a first-time coach with less than two weeks until the combine. Luckily, he has two strong coordinators he can inherit.
Steichen has a relationship with Gus Bradley and his top two assistants, linebackers coach Richard Smith and defensive backs coach Ron Milus, from their days with the Chargers. Bradley's unit finished 14th in defensive DVOA in his first year in Indianapolis, and Ballard had success drafting and signing to it with names like Yannick Ngakoue, Zaire Franklin, Rodney McLeod, Rodney Thomas and Stephon Gilmore.
Bubba Ventrone is a rising star and showed it last year by patching together a unit that lost a kicker, a punter and an ace special teamer by Week 2. Ventrone is a great resource for in-game decisions, which will be one of Steichen's challenges as the offensive play-caller.
Run these units back and Steichen can throw more of his weight into getting the rookie quarterback right.
Hire Roy Istvan as OL coach
Outside of perhaps quarterbacks coach, Steichen will not make a more important hire than on the offensive line. And if he's going to replicate any of what he accomplished in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts, it will start with a semblance of their dominant offensive line.
Eagles assistant line coach Roy Istvan is a candidate in Indianapolis, and the Colts should pay up to make this deal happen. Between the resources Chris Ballard spends up front to the upside of Taylor to the health and security of the rookie quarterback, so much is riding on this hire becoming a home run.
As a Heisman Trophy winner and a national champion, Bryce Young is currently considered the top quarterback prospect in this year's NFL Draft.
Trade up with the Bears for the No. 1 pick and draft Bryce Young
OK, let's get to the big domino. The Colts are going to draft a quarterback in the first round. Debates will rage in the coming months over who the top one is, but the likelihood is it's Bryce Young in the end. And if the Colts see him as indisputably that, they should do whatever it takes to get him. The point of hiring Steichen was to give him the best shot possible at taking this offense to a special place, and the time for half-measures and playing safe has passed.
It'll cost the Colts' second-round pick and possibly next year's first-rounder. A bidding war with the Texans is likely, and the Bears might ask for DeForest Buckner, whom Matt Eberflus still loves. As hard as that would be to stomach, it'd be necessary if it means solving the nightmare that the quarterback position has been since 2019.
Young has one key red flag in that he's 6 feet tall and less than 200 pounds, basically an anomaly among NFL quarterbacks. However, the sport has evolved toward shorter players with rolling pockets and horizontal passes, and bigger quarterbacks are actually more likely to get injured than smaller ones. I believe Steichen would build a system with this limitation in mind. He won't have Young slamming into defensive ends on quarterback power. But he would have him using that unflappable pocket presence and fast wheels to extend plays and create explosive opportunities, like Herbert did for him and like Young has done time and again so far.
The Colts need a franchise-changer at quarterback, not a guy for everyone to wait and see on. Young has that feel to him, and a trade like this would create a plan and an insurgence of life.
Cut Matt Ryan and sign Gardner Minshew
The Colts could need a bridge quarterback this season, and though that could be Matt Ryan, it makes more sense to cut him to save $17 million and sign a cheaper and more playable option.
Gardner Minshew fits the bill after spending the past two years in Steichen's system. At 6-foot-1, he's close enough in height to Young with enough mobility to run a similar system during the spring installs. With 24 starts and a career 7.1 yards per attempt and 93.1 quarterback rating, he's shown he's capable of stepping in for a spot start if needed. This could be a long-term backup solution.
Draft and sign OL help
The Colts have to rewire what they're doing up front, so why not follow the Eagles' model? When Philadelphia bottomed out with the league's worst sack rate in 2020, it kept stalwarts Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson and found them new teammates and increased depth. The Colts can build this approach around Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith.
The Colts can save nearly $8 million for next year and $12 million for 2024 by cutting Ryan Kelly, and they should consider it. They could transfer that money to right guard and then draft an athletic center they can use as a puller the way the Eagles have. Free agent guards who fit this model could include Isaac Seumalo, a great pass protector right from the Eagles' system; or Ben Powers, who became a monster in the run game under Roman in Baltimore.
The real dream would be using the money to help pay for Orlando Brown, a free agent four-time Pro Bowl left tackle who made his name in Roman's system in Baltimore before winning a Super Bowl protecting Patrick Mahomes. The 26-year-old is headed for a monster pay day, in Kansas City or elsewhere.
The likelihood is the Colts give Bernhard Raimann another shot and sign depth behind him, perhaps swing tackle Trey Pipkins, who played three years for Steichen and made 14 starts last season. It would set up as a prove-it year for Raimann in a better system, where either he's a bargain of an answer or they're drafting one early in 2024.
Jonathan Taylor suffered through an injury-riddled season in 2022 but showed his upside the previous season by claiming the NFL's rushing title with more than 1,800 yards.
Extend Jonathan Taylor
It's important to minimize how much a rookie quarterback has to carry early on. That's where an explosive run game helps, and Jonathan Taylor showed that ceiling with a league-best 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021.
Taylor is entering a contract year after a down season. He can be electric, but without established third-down credentials, a deal in the neighborhood of Nick Chubb's with the Browns (three years, $37 million with $20 million guaranteed) should make sense to both sides.
Granted, Taylor needs to take that next step in pass protection and receiving to make this deal profitable, and the Colts should hire a running backs coach with those specialties. The ability is there.
Sign Carl Lawson and Rock Ya-Sin
The Colts had a solid year defensively, but the depth at the two most important positions sunk them late in the year. It's time to take those concerns away.
Yannick Ngakoue is a free agent, and the Colts could sign him back, given his history and production with Gus Bradley. But I think they could also chase a slightly more versatile option like Carl Lawson. One of the league's craftier edge rushers, the 27-year-old is coming to free agency straight from the wide-nine approach under Robert Saleh on the Jets, where he ruptured an Achilles and then rebounded to play 17 games with seven sacks.
That injury concern could make him a bargain signing if the has the upside in this role that I think he can have. Lawson had the league's sixth-fastest get-off time last year, according to the NFL's NextGen stats, just a tick faster than Ngakoue. One or the other should hold this spot down.
Indianapolis acquired Ngakoue last year by trading Rock Ya-Sin, who is a free agent now and is now a better fit for this defense with his long arms and physical pressing play. He's the inverse of Isaiah Rodgers Sr., and the two could create a stronger tag team than Rodgers Sr. and Brandon Facyson did last year.
Michigan State wide receiver Jayden Reed totaled more than 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons.
Draft a wide receiver in the third round
I like the idea of re-signing Parris Campbell to a one-year deal if he doesn't find what he likes in free agency. But he could leave, and it's just as enticing to think about drafting a wide receiver in the same class as the quarterback to create a pair that can grow each year together, like what Joe Burrow has done with Tee Higgins. I'd be tempted to try that for Young.
The slot is a spot where you can find great value in the third round, which might be the Colts' first non-quarterback selection this year. One option I like a lot is Michigan State's Jayden Reed, who is smooth out of his breaks, explosive in the open field and relentless at his craft.
If the run game part of this plan comes together, it could make a lot of sense to draft and develop a passing game sort of like the Bengals have.
Draft a pass-rush specialist in the fourth round
Chris Ballard is all about investing in the trenches, a philosophy that seems sound after the NFL's final four teams all finished in the top five in defensive line spending. (The Colts were sixth.) But the key to actually completing the puzzle is in creating the depth to go eight or nine men deep in the pass rush, which is only affordable by hammering it in the draft.
It's true that premier starting edge rushers are hard to find beyond the first round, but complementary pieces aren't. The Eagles, who led the NFL with 70 sacks, were able to get 11 sacks out of a fourth-round pick in Josh Sweat. At such a rotational position, it makes sense to combine different body types into a cohesive rush plan that accentuates everyone's strengths.
The Colts should find someone to do this with in the fourth round this year. One possibility is Iowa State's Will McDonald IV, who is too small to play run downs but who has 27 sacks over the past three seasons.
This should at least be the top defensive position they draft. Though the snaps will be limited, the upside can still be immense.
After all, that's what dreaming is about. At their core, the Eagles were a team with a star quarterback on a rookie contract that let them afford the most loaded roster in the NFL. The pieces lifted each other up and created a whole that dwarfed the sum of the parts.
That's what the Colts have to shoot for.
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02-17-2023, 04:43 PM
Ten part plan from IndyStar
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