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  #61  
Old 10-07-2018, 09:10 PM
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Nice weekend for the Colts.

Jax loses. Ten loses. Hou is losing. For a terrible start to the season record wise, we are only 2 games out of lead for the division with 5 divisional games to play.

I am NOT expecting to win the division but I love having something to play dor.

Go Colts!

Walk Worthy,

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  #62  
Old 10-08-2018, 01:53 PM
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Colts are tied in OT, go for it on 4th down, miss, lose the game vs Texans

Cowboys have 4th and one in OT, Garrett punts, they lose the game

I realize time left was very different. But even with the loss, I'd still rather be the team going for it on 4th down
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  #63  
Old 10-08-2018, 03:43 PM
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It's lack of talent and the thing I'm most critical of Ballard for. He seems to be either/or in free agency vs draft so far. I think most of us would agree: both can complement each other, and signing a free agent doesn't mean throwing away a youth-based build.

I look at it this way: your WR2 opposite Hilton wasn't, at any point in this roster's evolution, a long-term investment solution. Ryan Grant is a young player you want to mold into a future WR2. Neither is Chester Rogers at this point etc. MAYBE you could argue Deon Cain, but I would argue back: he was a 6th round pick and the Colts were HOPING he could flash as he did in camp, but that was always going to be a crapshoot.

So if you weren't impeding anyone else developing at that spot anyway (and even Cain, again, would have probably been a 2019 or beyond development target): why not sign Allen Robinson or someone similar to front-loaded deal instead of sitting on all this cap space?
Here's my guess as to why Ballard hasn't followed your plan: Ballard believes there's a value in creating a team culture and identity before introducing big name/splashy free agents. He's said it multiple times, and I think he honestly believes it.

You can kind of see it happening on the defense - which is largely a bunch of young players which most people (including most here) had zero expectations for, and who are surprising everyone. That experience is going to create a team identity/pride that Ballard hopes and expects will spill over into future years. Introducing a big free agent (particularly at a skill position) draws lots of attention and creates expectations that can impact and distort performance. Adding one after the culture is created is less disruptive.

This is also why I don't think he'd ever consider trading for someone like Le'Veon Bell - the guy's personally is just too potentially disruptive. I'd be really surprised if he tries to sign him in the offseason too.
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  #64  
Old 10-08-2018, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by DrSpaceman View Post


Colts are tied in OT, go for it on 4th down, miss, lose the game vs Texans

Cowboys have 4th and one in OT, Garrett punts, they lose the game

I realize time left was very different. But even with the loss, I'd still rather be the team going for it on 4th down


o


There were several significant differences between those 2 situations.

For starters, the Cowboys had 4th down and half a yard to go ........ the Colts had 4th down and 4 to go, which is considerably more challenging.

Secondly, the Cowboys were on the opponents' 42 yard-line ........ the Colts were on their own 43 yard-line, which is also a considerably higher risk of gambling and going for it.


Finally, in the Colts-Texans game, there were only 27 seconds left to play. If they had punted the ball, there would have been less 20 seconds left play by the time the punt landed, and it is highly unlikely that the Texans would have been able to get the ball from deep in their own territory and still get into field goal position for the win. In the Cowboys-Texans game, there was still 5:40 left to play in the overtime period. That's still plenty of time for your defense to get a stop, get the ball back, and try for the win if they had chosen to punt.



So there was one common thread between the 2 situations, but multiple differences between them which makes the comparison between them much more complex than simply pointing out the option of going for it on 4th down in an overtime period.



o
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  #65  
Old 10-08-2018, 04:06 PM
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o

So there was one common thread between the 2 situations, but multiple differences between them which makes the comparison between them much more complex than simply pointing out the option of going for it on 4th down in an overtime period.

o
No doubt there are differences. But perhaps we can all be happy with the fact that regardless of how you feel about this particular situation, our current coaching staff is making decisions that can at least be debated one way or another.
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  #66  
Old 10-08-2018, 04:10 PM
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No doubt there are differences. But perhaps we can all be happy with the fact that regardless of how you feel about this particular situation, our current coaching staff is making decisions that can at least be debated one way or another.


o


No doubt, whatsoever.

Even though I thought that the decision to go for it was not prudent, I will still take Frank Reich over Chuck Pagano any day of the week.


In fact, even before a single snap was played this season, I pointed out that Frank Reich (as a player) engineered 2 of the most historic comebacks in football history.

In 1984, his Maryland Terrapins were losing to Miami, Fla. by a score of 31-0 at halftime. Maryland came back to win by a score of 42-40.

8 years later, his Buffalo Bills were losing to the Oilers by a score of 35-3 early in the 3rd quarter of the 1992 AFC Wildcard Playoff game. Reich and company came back to win by a score of 41-38, in overtime.


I like the notion of having a guy with that kind of resolve at the helm.


o
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  #67  
Old 10-08-2018, 04:59 PM
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o


There were several significant differences between those 2 situations.

For starters, the Cowboys had 4th down and half a yard to go ........ the Colts had 4th down and 4 to go, which is considerably more challenging.

Secondly, the Cowboys were on the opponents' 42 yard-line ........ the Colts were on their own 43 yard-line, which is also a considerably higher risk of gambling and going for it.


Finally, in the Colts-Texans game, there were only 27 seconds left to play. If they had punted the ball, there would have been less 20 seconds left play by the time the punt landed, and it is highly unlikely that the Texans would have been able to get the ball from deep in their own territory and still get into field goal position for the win. In the Cowboys-Texans game, there was still 5:40 left to play in the overtime period. That's still plenty of time for your defense to get a stop, get the ball back, and try for the win if they had chosen to punt.



So there was one common thread between the 2 situations, but multiple differences between them which makes the comparison between them much more complex than simply pointing out the option of going for it on 4th down in an overtime period.



o
I realize all that

But of the two coaching decisions, I am still glad we have the coach going for it on fourth down rather than punting away in OT.

If you view it as basically as Reich does, it seems, which is a tie is a loss, you don't play to tie, punting away means you lose the game, you aren't getting the ball back.

He plays to win and nothing else. He is not settling for a tie or just accepting a tie.

The outcome sucked, but still, of the two decisions, I like Reich's better. In both situations the outcome was a loss in these cases, but in the long run, I still think you are better off with the coach playing to win that settling for a tie

And frankly even beyond that I have no idea how Jason Garrett keeps his job so long
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  #68  
Old 10-08-2018, 06:09 PM
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I realize all that

But of the two coaching decisions, I am still glad we have the coach going for it on fourth down rather than punting away in OT.

If you view it as basically as Reich does, it seems, which is a tie is a loss, you don't play to tie, punting away means you lose the game, you aren't getting the ball back.

He plays to win and nothing else. He is not settling for a tie or just accepting a tie.

The outcome sucked, but still, of the two decisions, I like Reich's better. In both situations the outcome was a loss in these cases, but in the long run, I still think you are better off with the coach playing to win that settling for a tie

And frankly even beyond that I have no idea how Jason Garrett keeps his job so long


o



Reich DID play for the win before that 4th down situation, and that is what is being ignored by some who simply want to judge the decision as if it were made in a vacuum.

After the Texans tied the game with a field goal in overtime, the Colts immediately threw the ball and got a first down with a 12 yard gain. At that point, there was 1:22 left to play, and the Texans only had 1 timeout left. If Reich was going to play for the tie, he could have called for 3 conservative running plays, and run the clock out. He DID NOT do that. He continued to have Luck aggressively throw the ball downfield to try to get into field goal range for the win. Once it was 4th down and 4 from their own 43 yard-line, the stakes had changed considerably. After having tried to win the game by being aggressive on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs, it probably would have been wise to salvage a tie at at that point because of the risk/reward factors that were now in play in regard to the decision to either punt or go for it.

There is being aggressive, and there is being foolish and low-percentage/high risk. Continuing to throw the ball downfield with a little over a minute to play was aggressive and pro-active, and that is what the Colts did. Punting on 4th and 4 from your own 43 yard-line would not have been passive and meek, it would have been accepting the reality (and the risk-reward factors) of the situation.


o
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Last edited by Colts And Orioles; 10-08-2018 at 06:22 PM.
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  #69  
Old 10-09-2018, 01:49 PM
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o



Reich DID play for the win before that 4th down situation, and that is what is being ignored by some who simply want to judge the decision as if it were made in a vacuum.

After the Texans tied the game with a field goal in overtime, the Colts immediately threw the ball and got a first down with a 12 yard gain. At that point, there was 1:22 left to play, and the Texans only had 1 timeout left. If Reich was going to play for the tie, he could have called for 3 conservative running plays, and run the clock out. He DID NOT do that. He continued to have Luck aggressively throw the ball downfield to try to get into field goal range for the win. Once it was 4th down and 4 from their own 43 yard-line, the stakes had changed considerably. After having tried to win the game by being aggressive on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs, it probably would have been wise to salvage a tie at at that point because of the risk/reward factors that were now in play in regard to the decision to either punt or go for it.

There is being aggressive, and there is being foolish and low-percentage/high risk. Continuing to throw the ball downfield with a little over a minute to play was aggressive and pro-active, and that is what the Colts did. Punting on 4th and 4 from your own 43 yard-line would not have been passive and meek, it would have been accepting the reality (and the risk-reward factors) of the situation.


o
Of course he played for the win. I said that and agree with you.

And maybe it would have been better to punt and just take the tie in that situation

But in the long run, again, I'd rather have the coach playing to win vs. playing to tie or not to lose.

We know Reich would have gone for it on 4th and 1 from the 41 in OT, unlike Garrett, because we saw him do it in a much riskier situation already. It does answer many questions about his philosophy and play calling.

Is it too risky? There is that concern and we will see.

Also the play on 4th down in OT should have worked. What killed it was yet another dropped pass.

Reich is not the one holding back this offense. Its certainly not like in years past where it seems the play calls were doomed from the start or just made no sense. And he won't be holding back offensively when trying to close out games, we know that.
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:57 PM
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Here's my guess as to why Ballard hasn't followed your plan: Ballard believes there's a value in creating a team culture and identity before introducing big name/splashy free agents. He's said it multiple times, and I think he honestly believes it.

You can kind of see it happening on the defense - which is largely a bunch of young players which most people (including most here) had zero expectations for, and who are surprising everyone. That experience is going to create a team identity/pride that Ballard hopes and expects will spill over into future years. Introducing a big free agent (particularly at a skill position) draws lots of attention and creates expectations that can impact and distort performance. Adding one after the culture is created is less disruptive.

This is also why I don't think he'd ever consider trading for someone like Le'Veon Bell - the guy's personally is just too potentially disruptive. I'd be really surprised if he tries to sign him in the offseason too.
I think fans put more value in culture than teams, to be honest. There is definitely SOME value; don't get me wrong. But I see value in things like accountability (cutting Basham if he isn't doing shit), not anonymity. I realize I'm talking me vs Ballard and Ballard runs the team, but just think we tend to overvalue culture sometimes, or at least overvalue how teams view it.
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