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Old 04-04-2017, 09:56 AM
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Default State of the Colts – Early April 2017

Quarterback:
Starter = Andrew Luck
Backup = Scott Tolzien
Depth = Stephen Morris
Comment: No changes needed. Tolzien played fine as the backup in 2016 and Morris killed it in pre-season play last year (which is what you want from your QB3). Tolzien is in the last year of his 2 year contract so if the Colts wanted to draft a backup guy then I am not going to complain but it better be lower than the 4th round because we need immediate help elsewhere. No changes are needed here.

Running Back:
Starter = Frank Gore
Backup = Robert Turbin
Depth = Josh Fergurson
Comment: Pretty much the same depth chart as in 2016 except for Todman being left out. A combo of Gore and Turbin would be “fine” for 2017 but the position is SCREAMING for a talented mid-round rookie to be added to the mix. I think we have too many defensive needs to use one of our top three round draft picks on RB but I would be fine with using one of the 4th round picks in 2017 and hopefully find a RB stud early in the 2018 draft to take over for Gore as RB1.

Wide Receiver:
Starter = T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief
Backup = Phillip Dorsett, Kamar Aiken
Depth: Chester Rogers, Quan Bray, Tevaun Smith, Marcus Leak, Devin Street
Comment: Love the addition of Aiken and hopes that he comes in with a chip on his shoulder ready to earn his spot anywhere from WR2 down to WR5. He has good talent and can push everyone to do better. I still think that the WR2 job is Moncrief’s to lose so he better progress. Dorsett is in danger of being pushed down if he is not careful. Good competition. No need to add anyone else.

Tight End:
Starter = Jack Doyle
Backup = Erik Swoope
Depth = Brandon Williams
Comment: Jack is DA MAN and I liked seeing Swoope progress over the past 3 seasons. However, we are paper thin at the position since Williams is a Special Teams player with 6 NFL catches to his name. But yet another position group that could use a mid-round draft pick since the Colts were one of the top 2TE set teams in the league last year. Need another quality player as TE3; not just UDFAs.

Offensive Tackle:
Starter = Anthony Castonzo, Le’Raven Clark
Backup = Joe Haeg, Fahn Cooper
Depth = Jeremy Vujnovich, Isiah Cage
Comment: Losing Joe Reitz to retirement hurt us quite a bit when it came to having a trusted backup for left OT on the roster. While I like the potential we saw in Clark and Haeg last season, they are unproven on the blind side at the NFL level. ‘Stanzo was solid last season and hopefully will bounce back to being “good.’ Clark made huge strides from pre-season disaster to his final 3 games of the season being respectable (yeah, Philbin!). Haeg is the new Joe Reitz able to plug in anywhere and play solid. Cooper is unproven on the Colts but his college pedigree is almost as good as Haeg’s. I feel pretty solid about where we are at OT; mostly because I am trusting the O-Line coach to produce with young talent.

Offensive Guard:
Starter = Jack Mewhort, Joe Haeg
Backup = Brian Schwenke, Denzelle Good
Depth = Fahn Cooper, Adam Redmond, Austin Blythe
Notes: If Mewhort can bounce back from an injured 2016 season and one of Haeg/Good/Schwenke can elevate to win the right OG position then I think we will be much further ahead than we were last season. Injuries hurt us at OG more than any position on the offense last season so if we can be healthier, then I think our overall success will be that much better. The one spot on the offensive line that I could see a higher draft pick used. I don’t think that they need to but if we ended up drafting an OG in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, then I would not be disappointed. Drafting a sure-fire winner at right OG and pushing everyone down a spot on the depth chartwill only give us that much better depth.

Offensive Center:
Starter = Ryan Kelly
Backup = Brian Schwenke
Depth = Austin Blythe
Notes: Kelly had a great rookie season and will only get better with experience. Bringing Schwenke gives him an experienced backup and Blythe is going to have to work hard to make the final roster this season. The Colts typically carry 9 or 10 O-Linemen on the active roster and: ‘Stanzo, Mewhort, Kelly, Clark, Haeg, Schwenke, and Good are all clearly ahead of Blythe with the likes of: any drafted rookie, Fahn, Cage and Redmond battling him for the final 2 or 3 spots. Competition is good.

Special Teams:
Starter = Adam Vinatieri, Jeff Locke, Matt Overton
Backup = PK Devon Bell, LS Joe Fortunato
Notes: Patty Mac’s retirement sucked. Good on him to get out while he still has a body. Bad on whomever follows him. Overton is rock solid but, heck, keep up the competition for positions. I think Locke will be fine and may help us pin folks deep as he is a bit better positional punter than McAfee was. However, we will miss “THE BOOMSTICK” when we are on our half of the field and need to just nail the punt. Pat also nailed the kickoffs. We will be fine but were better in 2016 with McAfee.

Nose Tackle:
Starter = David Parry
Backup = Al Woods
Depth =
Notes: Gahhh, good chance Parry is not available for at least part of 2017 and Woods is just “okay.” None of the kids in the draft are true difference makers at NT and all should be available with either our last 4th round pick or our 5th round pick. Perhaps we will get better play out of Woods and a rookie than I think but I don’t believe that NT will be “fixed” in 2017 to anything better than “not terrible.” I am targeting the use of our 5th round draft pick on NT.

3-Tech Defensive Tackle:
Starter = Henry Anderson
Backup = Hassan Ridgeway
Depth = T.Y. McGill
Notes: These guys live in a 1-gap, “B” gap scheme (between OG and OT) on the weak side and try to knife through the O-line to close down cut-back lanes and get penetration. Anderson looked great as a rookie before IR but was ineffective in 2016. Interviews says that he never felt right in 2016 but is now back to “100%” and could be a stud again. Ridgeway gave good time last year and will hopefully make the 2nd year leap in training camp and become a force. McGill is JAG or just a cut above JAG and is solid.

5-Tech Defensive End:
Starter = Kendall Langford
Backup = Margus Hunt
Depth = Kristjan Sokoli
Notes: Plays on the strong side in a 2-gap technique by holding both the “B” gap and the “C” gap (between OT and TE). Need for strong and dominating sort of like the NT to take on and defeat double teams (typically the OT and TE) in order to control both gaps. I have read quite a few Bengals blogs on Hunt that all said they liked how he played the run and held his point of attack but that he was just not much of a pass rusher as a 4-3 DE. A transition to 3-4 DE might be much more suited for his skill sets.

Also interesting are the physical differences between those guys that Colts.com are listing as “DT” and those that they are listing as “DE”:

6’6” / 294 pounds / 33 1/2” arm length / 23 bench press reps / 5.03 40 yard dash / 4.19 20 yard shuttle / DT Henry Anderson (2015)
6’3” / 301 pounds / 33 0/0” arm length / 24 bench press reps / 5.02 40 yard dash / 4.32 20 yard shuttle / DT Hasson Ridgeway (2016)
6’0” / 299 pounds / 32 1/2" arm length / 25 bench press reps / 4.96 40 yard dash / 4.31 20 yard shuttle / DT T.Y. McGill (2015)

6’6” / 307 pounds / 33 1/2” arm length / 31 bench press reps / 4.90 40 yard dash / 4.69 20 yard shuttle / DE Kendall Langford (2008)
6’8” / 310 pounds / 33 3/4" arm length / 38 bench press reps / 4.60 40 yard dash / 4.51 20 yard shuttle / DE Margus Hunt (2013)
6’6” / 312 pounds / 33 1/2" arm length / 31 bench press reps / 4.88 40 yard dash / 4.46 20 yard shuttle / DE Kristjan Sokoli (2015)

The DTs are typically shorter (except for Anderson), have shorter arm lengths, are lighter, benched less but have better “burst” or short area speed as indicated by their 20 yard shuttle times. The DEs are all tall (6’6” or better), have bigger arm spans, are heavier, are MUCH stronger and have better “long distance” speed from their 40 yard dash times.

Okay, I admit that I was wrong. Based on our earlier discussion, doing more research and going back and watching some of the 2016 games again, I now agree that the Colts are indeed looking at two different kinds of D-Linemen to play on either side of the NT. Sometimes, I am a bit slow on the uptake.

All that said and done, both DT and DE (especially DE) scream for more talent because no one outside of 2015 Anderson and Langford and 2016 Ridgeway inspire much confidence. However, there is some interesting physical potential in Hunt and Sokoli that, perhaps, can be unlocked for 2017.

Outside Linebacker [RUSH]:
Starter = Jabaal Sheard
Backup = Akeem Ayers
Depth = Barkevious Mingo, Alex Bazzie
Notes: Hmmm, 2017 Sheard, Mingo and Ayers versus 2016 Mathis, Cole and Ayers? Part of me wants to believe that we are better solely due to the fact that Mathis and Cole were almost completely ineffective last year. I think Sheard is a fine addition as a “solid” NFL starter but we still need a stud pass rusher. We are in a good position to bring in a rookie and let them just be a pass rush specialist in year one because we did sign both Sheard and Simon but we need that stud pass rusher. Our chances of finding him in the 1st round are MUCH better than finding him in a lower round.

Outside Linebacker [EDGE]:
Starter = John Simon
Backup = Lavar Edwards
Depth = Deiontrez Mount, Curt Maggitt
Notes: Ugh, I think we got better with Simon over Walden (at least we got cheaper) but the depth behind him is underwhelming. I think there is a good chance that someone like Ayers or Mingo ends up being the backup to Simon on the edge if we go with a high round rookie pass rusher in the draft. The nice thing is that if we end up with an OLB corps of: stud rookie, Sheard, Simon, Ayers, Mingo then there is a lot of “mix & match” gaming that can be done to try and keep them fresh. Sheard and Simon on run downs is great with the rookie subbing in on passing downs is the best approach. We are better but we still need work. I would like to see a 1st round OLB pick in 2017 and then an OLB[EDGE] pick in the first four rounds in 2018 to help solidify the position for the future.

Inside Linebacker:
Starter = Sean Spence, Antonio Morrison
Backup = Edwin Jackson
Depth = Deon King, Luke Rhodes
Notes: While I would have enjoyed signing one of the ILBs that I liked better, Spence is a solid NFL player whom will probably be okay for us in 2017. I would have preferred Zach Brown at $4.5m for the season over Spence at $2.5m but, whatever. Done is done. I have no idea what we have in Jackson or Morrison as they both looked very overwhelmed out there last year. I am projecting that Morrison will beat out Jackson for starting duties if we don’t bring in a young stud to compete which I anticipate that we do. ILB is screaming for another starter alongside Spence and I don’t know that I think either Morrison or Jackson are those guys. This position group is a terrible mess with Grigson letting Jerrell Freeman walk and then swinging and missing on trying to replace him with Nate Irving and Sio Moore alongside 145 year old D’Q Jackson.

Cornerback:
Starter = Vontae Davis, Rashaan Melvin
Nickle = Darryl Morris
Depth = James Charles, Chris Milton, Tevin Mitchel, Larry Scott, Frankie Williams
Notes: I like Melvin and Morris well enough as CB3/CB4/CB5 but I don’t believe either of them should be starters on the outside in the NFL. They have stuck in the NFL for 4 years each indicating that they have what it takes to stay in the NFL. Melvin put in great service last season getting 9 of his 11 NFL starts, notching 60 of his 84 tackles and 7 of his 8 passes defended. He really stepped up to the plate. Morris also had his best season as a pro accounting for 2 of his 3 games as a starter, 34 of his 80 tackles, 6 of his 13 passes defended and 1 of his 2 INTs. This position group is SCREAMING for both a young starter as well as another stud depth guy to groom for the future. If we go into the season with a depth chart of:
CB1 = Vontae Davis
CB2 = 1st/2nd round draftee
CB3/4/5 = Rashaan Melvin, Darryl Morris, 4th round draftee in whatever order they earn play time
CB6 = whoever wins from the depth crowd
Then I think we will be in pretty good shape as compared to 2016.

Safety:
Starter = Clayton Geathers, Darius Butler
Backup = T.J. Green, Duke Williams
Depth = Andrew Williams, Matthias Farley, Stefan McClure, Lee Hightower
Notes = I am VERY glad that we re-signed Butler to be a veteran presence back at safety. While we can all hope that Green has a “Collins” type of 2nd year leap, there is no guarantee that he will. Duke Williams is a 10 game NFL starter over 4 seasons with BUF whom they cut mid-season in 2016. Perhaps he can resurrect his career with the Colts (like Ballard is hoping that so many others can) after being a somewhat failed 4th round pick by BUF in 2013. Safety could use another young stud but there are only so many draft picks to go around. IF the Colts trade down in the 1st round and pick up another 3rd or 4th round pick than I hope one could be spent on Safety but it is lower on my priority list than, say: OLB[RUSH], CB, D-Line, NT, TE, RB and another CB.

Positions that need a 1st round – 3rd round draft pick added to them: OLB[RUSH], CB, ILB, DE, OG

Positions that need a 4th round or below draft pick added to them: CB, NT, Safety, TE, RB, DT, ILB, OLB[EDGE]

If only we had 13 draft picks instead of 7! 

So, Colt Freaks, that is how I see the state of the Colts going into the draft. It will be interesting to see how many of the holes Ballard can fill with young studs and how many end up being filled by UDFAs or street level free agents.

Cheers,
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Old 04-04-2017, 11:22 AM
njcoltfan njcoltfan is offline
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GREAT post Sherck, I don't know how you find the time !!

Last edited by sherck; 04-04-2017 at 02:25 PM.
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Old 04-04-2017, 11:42 AM
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GREAT post Sherck, I don't know how you find the time !!
I agree ...
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Old 04-04-2017, 02:26 PM
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GREAT post Sherck, I don't know how you find the time !!
I research and write for a living. I often and thinking of things over the course of a couple of evenings before I sit down and start typing so it comes pretty quickly.

The above post took me about 45 minutes to type up this morning before coming into work and then I spent about 10 minutes editing it during my lunch before posting it.

Cheers,
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Old 04-04-2017, 02:32 PM
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I research and write for a living. I often and thinking of things over the course of a couple of evenings before I sit down and start typing so it comes pretty quickly.

The above post took me about 45 minutes to type up this morning before coming into work and then I spent about 10 minutes editing it during my lunch before posting it.

Cheers,
Well, however you do it, great post and keep it up!
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Old 04-04-2017, 04:23 PM
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not bad shrek
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Old 04-04-2017, 04:33 PM
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Really good summary. My only point of disagreement is about needing a guard in rounds 1-3. I would move that down to the late-round level. If they go o-line in round 3, I'd prefer a developmental OT. That being said, I think there is plenty of defensive talent that it would be silly not to stock up on as many good defenders as they can.

Last edited by VeveJones007; 04-04-2017 at 04:35 PM.
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Old 04-04-2017, 07:03 PM
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My point about O-line is that IF they draft someone, he should be a clear cut starter because we have a lot of "competition " bodies.

But, I don't think we need to do that. I have trust in Philbin after whst he did with the rookies last year.

Cheers,

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Old 04-04-2017, 07:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sherck View Post
My point about O-line is that IF they draft someone, he should be a clear cut starter because we have a lot of "competition " bodies.

But, I don't think we need to do that. I have trust in Philbin after whst he did with the rookies last year.

Cheers,

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Totally agree, if you're going to add to the O-Line, they can't be a JAG.
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Old 04-04-2017, 08:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sherck View Post
My point about O-line is that IF they draft someone, he should be a clear cut starter because we have a lot of "competition " bodies.

But, I don't think we need to do that. I have trust in Philbin after whst he did with the rookies last year.

Cheers,

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Thanks for the clarification. My take is that it's easier to get that clear upgrade on D in this draft, moving OG/OT to a later round pick.
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