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Old 02-12-2020, 06:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysSunnyinIndy View Post
Thanks Smitty for the write-up. I don't follow much college football so it is much appreciated.




One comment about the trades: I doubt either of these will occur as proposed. While they appear to be equal "value" when looking at a Draft Value Chart, when multiple teams are interested in trading up for a QB, a premium is usually paid.

For instance, review the two trades from the 2018 draft including the Colts-Jets trade:

Colts traded: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Jets traded: 1.06, 2.37, 2.49 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

So the Jets had to pay almost a 30% premium to move up 3 spots in the first round.

Similarly, look at the Tampa Bay - Buffalo trade that same year:

Bucs traded: 1.07, 7.255 (value = 1501)
Bills traded: 1.12, 2.53 and 2.56 (value = 1910)

The Bills also paid about a 30% premium to move up 5 spots from 12 to 7.

The premium can vary from year to year based on the number of teams looking to trade up as well as the number of teams looking to trade down. Supply and demand.

If you would apply the 30% premium to the proposed trades for this year it would look like this:

Lions trade: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Dolphins trade: 1.05, 2.39, 2.56 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

and

Lions trade: 1.05 (value = 1700)
Colts trade: 1.13, 2.34, and 2.44 (value = 2170)


Will the Dolphins still make the trade to move up 2 spots surrendering both their 2nd round picks this year and their 2nd next year? If Tua's medicals check out, probably so. (they have 2 additional 1st's this year anyway)

Will the Colts trade their top 3 picks this year to move up 8 spots to grab a QB? If they like the QB, probably so.

The Lions would make out like bandits receiving five 2nd round picks to move down 10 spots. The last two drafts had a lot of really good players from picks 20 - 70 meaning it was good to acquire 2nd round picks. Many analysts stated it was hard to mock those drafts because there was little difference from pick 20 to pick 70. Does the draft this year have the same depth from 20 - 70?
I wouldn't trade that much capital to move up unless I was 100% sure about the guy I wanted. I would prefer to keep the three picks and hope to add enough pieces to make the QB choice less important. That is, if that position can be less important.
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