Colts vs Chiefs - Rushing

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Ok, my bad - I miss understood. And to be clear the quote about making Mahomes a non factor wasn’t from me. I agree with your point. It makes Mahomes an even bigger factor IMO by putting additional (self imposed) pressure on him and forcing him to be efficient and mistake free. It’s a question of whether or not he can handle that pressure in his first playoff game.

Yep, totally agree. If he has fewer opportunities, that magnifies any mistakes.

[southside asshole]

We will not find a way to make Mahomes a non-factor. He is a superhero QB like Luck, Manning, Brady, etc. He may be unproven in the playoffs, but he's going to affect the game more than anyone else in a red jersey.

People shit on KC's defense, but they are 1st in sacks and forced fumbles. Their secondary is weak, so getting the ball out of Luck's hands quickly to skill players in space is probably our path to sustained drives, which I completely agree is the best possible gameplan from where I sit.

I want to see Mack and Hines involved early and often.

With Hilton playing hurt and Ebron still not being a reliable possession target between the 20s, Hines's utility as a slot receiver is going to be critical to moving the chains. He was invisible against Houston because we didn't need him in that gameplan, and I have to wonder if that wasn't by design. I think Reich is cooking up something good for him this weekend.

As far as our defense, I admit I haven't watched much KC football this year. I'm not sure what Mahomes's tendencies are when facing the rush. What I've observed does show he has an uncanny ability to make accurate throws to multiple targets while evading rushers. I worry that even a very disciplined zone scheme, with deep safeties and short-throw concessions, is not going to be enough to get him off the field. We will need to get to him and hit him. Squeezing the pocket and forcing him to throw isn't going to get it done. We'll probably have to rely on some pass rush wrinkles with safety and LB blitzes so someone can get a free path and actually make a sack.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by FatDT

I may be overconfident but KC doesn't really scare me.

They beat 2 playoff teams this year. They have 3, maybe 3.5 quality wins if you want to give them a half point for beating the Browns the week after Hue got fired.

Mahomes last 4 games were good, but not superstar-level like earlier. And it wasn't that KC had nothing to play for, the Chargers were right there with them for the division.

This will be Mahomes first ever playoff game. 1st time QBs don't usually do well in those circumstances.

Everyone in KC knows the history of the Colts ruining their playoff hopes. The Arrowhead crowd will be nervous as shit.

KC has some stars on defense but they had a soft schedule and still didn't play well.

Andy Reid's postseason flops are legendary.

The Colts dominated the Texans without playing their best football for half the game. I don't think we should realistically be favored, but I don't think the KC offense is as potent now as they seemed earlier in the season. Especially without Hunt.

We'll find out on Saturday one way or another, but I strongly disagree with this take. KC is really damn good and they pose a major test for this defense with Kelce, misdirection, and playaction. As much as we make out of Maholmes being a first year starter, KC is going to target the Colts first year starters at LB. Their lack of familiarity with KC could be the deciding factor.

Unless Maholmes makes a few mistakes, I don't see how the Colts keep KC below 30 points. At that point, it comes down to whether or not the Colts offense can keep up.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by southside asshole

We will not find a way to make Mahomes a non-factor. He is a superhero QB like Luck, Manning, Brady, etc. He may be unproven in the playoffs, but he's going to affect the game more than anyone else in a red jersey.

People shit on KC's defense, but they are 1st in sacks and forced fumbles. Their secondary is weak, so getting the ball out of Luck's hands quickly to skill players in space is probably our path to sustained drives, which I completely agree are the best possible gameplan from where I sit.

I want to see Mack and Hines involved early and often.

With Hilton playing hurt and Ebron still not being a reliable possession target between the 20s, Hines's utility as a slot receiver is going to be critical to moving the chains. He was invisible against Houston because we didn't need him in that gameplan, and I have to wonder if that wasn't by design. I think Reich is cooking up something good for him this weekend.

Chris Jones is a stud and just a tick behind Aaron Donald. Hopefully the line can keep him in check.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Chris Jones is a stud and just a tick behind Aaron Donald. Hopefully the line can keep him in check.

Honestly, I prefer an inside threat to an outside threat.

Nelson / Kelly / Glowinski are working magic in the middle. Luck knows how to climb the pocket to escape. It is the outside stud rusher whom Luck seems to have the most problems with.

We will see. Is it Saturday yet?

Walk Worthy,

[Pez]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

I completely agree with the bold. What I fail to understand is how "limiting # of KC possessions" --> "Maholmes becomes a non-factor."

If the Colts successfully limit KC to something like 7 possessions and they score 5 TDs, KC still wins the game. What you mean to say is that the Colts need to limit possessions and be more efficient than KC in those limited possessions. Simply limiting possessions doesn't make Maholmes a non-factor.

ok, sure, I used a bit of hyperbolic language, but the point is still there. Effectively running the ball may create a mismatch in TOP and (even better) may create a mismatch in the number of total plays.

Doing so will limit the extent to which Mahomes is a factor in the game, first because he is playing less, second because our defense is rested.

In all four of KCs losses, they lost TOP and also lost total plays.

Seattle won TOP 35 to 25
SD won TOP 33-26
NE won TOP 36-23
LAR won TOP 31-29

Sure, this stat means less than it did before, and is not the only benefit of an effective game running the ball.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Pez

ok, sure, I used a bit of hyperbolic language, but the point is still there. Effectively running the ball may create a mismatch in TOP and (even better) may create a mismatch in the number of total plays.

Doing so will limit the extent to which Mahomes is a factor in the game, first because he is playing less, second because our defense is rested.

In all four of KCs losses, they lost TOP and also lost total plays.

Seattle won TOP 35 to 25
SD won TOP 33-26
NE won TOP 36-23
LAR won TOP 31-29

Sure, this stat means less than it did before, and is not the only benefit of an effective game running the ball.

Here are the points allowed in KCs losses:
54
43
38
29

I think you're putting too much emphasis on controlling the clock and not enough on needing to score, score, score. Get TDs first and foremost, limit big plays, and get a couple turnovers. TOP will take care of itself.

[Luck4Reich]

Mahomes first playoff pass is going to be an interception. Calling it now.

[rcubed]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Here are the points allowed in KCs losses:
54
43
38
29

I think you're putting too much emphasis on controlling the clock and not enough on needing to score, score, score. Get TDs first and foremost, limit big plays, and get a couple turnovers. TOP will take care of itself.

yep, playing ball control is great but only if the drives end up with TDs. I dont think a bunch of field goals will do it.

[DrSpaceman]

From what I have read, despite the poor defensive stats, KC has a good pass rush with their front four. Two DL with 10+ sacks on the year. And they don't blitz much, so they will have 7-8 back in coverage most plays

Will be a challenge for Luck and Reich, but I think they can't score on the chiefs

Our secondary is what worries me the most. Really have not faced a QB all year of this quality. Not even Brady this season