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  #71  
Old 12-05-2018, 01:25 AM
VeveJones007 VeveJones007 is offline
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Originally Posted by FatDT View Post
You’re just being sour. Holding any NFL offense to 6 points is doing a good job.
“Being sour” is quite generous. 6 points against = unacceptable is an atrocious take.
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  #72  
Old 12-05-2018, 11:37 AM
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I saw a stat that if the Colts win out (highly unlikely), we still only have a 57% chance of making the playoffs in the 6th wildcard spot.

First six games we had one win, two close ones and three piles of shit. Next six games we have 5 wins and 1 pile of shit. Hard not to be optimistic.

I sure would love to beat the Texans though.


http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/coltswhatif.html

Yesterday I saw that woman on NFL network (Cynthia Frelund) use her "model" to predict the 6th wildcard spot and based on her analytics only the colts and ravens have a credible chance to make it. What I don't like about her reports is that she doesn't share what variables are in her model so I don't know whether it's a credible model or not. Only specific thing she said re Colts odds were that our league leading 3rd down conversion rate was a significant factor. Her conclusion was if we win one of houston or cowboys game we would likely get the 6th spot.
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  #73  
Old 12-05-2018, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 1965southpaw View Post
Yesterday I saw that woman on NFL network (Cynthia Frelund) use her "model" to predict the 6th wildcard spot and based on her analytics only the colts and ravens have a credible chance to make it. What I don't like about her reports is that she doesn't share what variables are in her model so I don't know whether it's a credible model or not. Only specific thing she said re Colts odds were that our league leading 3rd down conversion rate was a significant factor. Her conclusion was if we win one of houston or cowboys game we would likely get the 6th spot.
I am torn on this. On the one hand, it would be nice to defy the odds and make the playoffs this year, having a chance to knock off a higher seed. They would also gain playoff experience. On the other hand, this team is not likely going to make much noise in the playoffs, so improved draft position would vastly improve our team for the future.

Like most, I feel that you always want to make the playoffs. Always! But do we really?
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Last edited by Racehorse; 12-05-2018 at 03:04 PM.
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  #74  
Old 12-05-2018, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Racehorse View Post
I am torn on this. On the one hand, it would be nice to defy the odds and make the playoffs this year, having a chance to knock off a higher seed. They would also gain playoff experience. On the other hand, this team is not likely going to make much noise in the playoffs, so improved draft position would vastly improve our team for the future.

Like most, I feel that you always want to make the playoffs. Always! But do we really?
Without a doubt, yes.

1. playoff experience, especially if we can win the wildcard and get to the divisional
2. psychological benefit of making the playoffs in general
3. small sample size, but this 'regime' has shown an ability to find value in the draft
4. an extra second rounder from the Jets (negotiated last year)
5. An extra 4th rounder compensatory that we will get for Moncrief

And were already past the point in a way. If we go 2-2 on in the next 4, we:

1. miss the playoffs
2. pick about 16th or 17th

If we win out and make the playoffs, then go one and done, we will

1. get the aforementioned benefits of playoff experience
2. finish 12th and pick 21st

I am confident that with this 'regime' the difference between a 17th pick and a 21st pick is not that significant.

We have some flexibility also. If we want to trade up to draft higher in the first, we have an extra 2nd and an extra 4th to use as capital to trade up.
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  #75  
Old 12-05-2018, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by 1965southpaw View Post
Yesterday I saw that woman on NFL network (Cynthia Frelund) use her "model" to predict the 6th wildcard spot and based on her analytics only the colts and ravens have a credible chance to make it. What I don't like about her reports is that she doesn't share what variables are in her model so I don't know whether it's a credible model or not. Only specific thing she said re Colts odds were that our league leading 3rd down conversion rate was a significant factor. Her conclusion was if we win one of houston or cowboys game we would likely get the 6th spot.
Colts AND ravens both? or colts OR ravens?
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  #76  
Old 12-05-2018, 03:48 PM
VeveJones007 VeveJones007 is offline
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Originally Posted by Pez View Post
Without a doubt, yes.

1. playoff experience, especially if we can win the wildcard and get to the divisional
2. psychological benefit of making the playoffs in general
3. small sample size, but this 'regime' has shown an ability to find value in the draft
4. an extra second rounder from the Jets (negotiated last year)
5. An extra 4th rounder compensatory that we will get for Moncrief

And were already past the point in a way. If we go 2-2 on in the next 4, we:

1. miss the playoffs
2. pick about 16th or 17th

If we win out and make the playoffs, then go one and done, we will

1. get the aforementioned benefits of playoff experience
2. finish 12th and pick 21st

I am confident that with this 'regime' the difference between a 17th pick and a 21st pick is not that significant.

We have some flexibility also. If we want to trade up to draft higher in the first, we have an extra 2nd and an extra 4th to use as capital to trade up.
Simply making the playoffs this year doesn't matter. If they make the playoffs because a lot of the young players are showing growth, then so be it. Only the growth will make a difference in putting this team closer to its next title.
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  #77  
Old 12-05-2018, 04:36 PM
albany ed albany ed is offline
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If I had to guess, I'd say they lose at least 2 more games. Usually, rookies hit a wall around this time, and the Colts have more than their share of rookies playing key starter roles.
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  #78  
Old 12-05-2018, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by FatDT View Post
You’re just being sour. Holding any NFL offense to 6 points is doing a good job.
Ordinarily I would agree. But not against THAT team. They are AWWWWWFUL.
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  #79  
Old 12-05-2018, 06:30 PM
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While the game against the Jags was god awful, it will tell us what this team is made of. If they come out and get @ss kicked, that won't be good. If they come and out drag the Texans into overtime, I will be happy. They need to play hard and smart. The coach needs to admit that a FG is better than 0 points.

The Texans are a better team, with a good O and a better D. If the Colts can make them fight all game long. That will be the best news, no matter what the final score is.
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  #80  
Old 12-05-2018, 06:50 PM
Pez Pez is offline
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Originally Posted by VeveJones007 View Post
Simply making the playoffs this year doesn't matter. If they make the playoffs because a lot of the young players are showing growth, then so be it. Only the growth will make a difference in putting this team closer to its next title.
Also agree with this 100%. I guess it should be clear that I think we have < 1% chance of making the playoffs. We probably only have a slightly better change to beat the Texans.
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