My slow and late thoughts on IND vs. NYG

[southside asshole]

Alright, I figure I'll try doing this again this week. I considered piggybacking on GBB's thread again, but this got long, so out of respect for him and his constant value additions to this board, I'm starting my own thread instead. I hope it doesn't make it too hard to track discussion about today's game. If it does, I'll go back to jumping in GBBs threads for any future write-ups.

I've been apprehensive about this game all week. With the Colts coming off a shutout of Dallas, the Giants coming off of receiving a shutout from Tenn, and the completely uneven stakes facing both teams, this game had every indication of a should-win as well as being a must-win.

And those are the kinds of games you lose.

Indeed, the Colts came out flat against my worst fear today - a Giants team with something to prove and nothing to lose. I admit that I had flashes in my head of the disaster in Jacksonville. In the end, I think we won this one due more to some personal heroics from a few key playmakers rather than any kind of chess-vs-checkers schematic orchestrations by Reich. The playcalling today, with few exceptions, boiled down to "Hey, we have some talented guys on this offense. I hope they win!"

I never like to see a 3-and-out on the first drive. I like it even less on the 2nd drive after the opponent scores a TD. The offensive gameplan struck me as odd today, given how the Giants front 7 struggled so badly against the run vs. Tenn. We have what's become one of the best run-blocking O-lines in the league, and our first 2 series contained exactly two runs: a Mack run between the tackles for 11 yards on a 1st and 15, and the exact same play the very next down which resulted in a loss of 2. Luck then chucks one into the dirt on an pressured rollout and we punt for the 2nd time. I really think if we'd come out running hard and blowing the interior of the D-line off the ball on the first couple of drives, it would have set a completely different tone to the game and it wouldn't have been such the nail-biter it became. As it was, we found ourselves playing from behind and calling plays like we needed to get it all back in one bite.

Luck and Ebron also seemed out of sync today. Some of it was due to obvious designed coverage on him in intermediate passing situations, and some was due to clear miscommunication between them regarding where Ebron would be after Luck released the ball. I can think of 3 key plays where Luck was trying to get the ball to Ebron that went disastrously wrong:

• The first was on the last play of the first drive, where he was just plain triple-covered, and which made it look like Luck overthrew him. It should be noted that there was also an easy 1st down completion to a wide-open Hines running an out-route 2 yards past the sticks on the other side of the field, but luck never took his eyes off of Ebron to see it.
• Another was Luck's deep pass into the end zone which resulted in his lone INT of the day. On that play, I'm pretty sure Luck thought Ebron would continue up and out to a post, but Ebron stopped short around the 10 and just watched it sail over his head and into the waiting arms of a surprised-looking Curtis Riley.
• I won't blame Ebron for the dropped pass on the play where he got concussed - that was a chicken that's been on it's way home to roost for weeks. The dude has taken some serious shots lately. I think there's some idea among the coaches that Ebron is the next Dallas Clark, but he's got a way to go before he can be trusted as that kind of possession target over the middle. Ebron is not your first look to convert downs. Continuing to use him like that is going to turn him into Austin Collie instead.

Clearly to his credit, Luck did get his act together in the 2nd half. He remembered how to read his receivers well, step up away from pressure, and spread the ball around. His 14-yard scamper on the last scoring drive basically saved the key drive of the game. Normally I cringe every time I see him tuck and go, but it was as called for in that situation as it would ever be. Overall the statline shows he had a good game, and he did, but he also made some poor decisions early which helped dig us into that hole in the first place.

One of the announcers today compared T.Y. Hilton to Marvin Harrison. That is a bad comparison. T.Y. is not Marvin. T.Y. does not go horizontal for insane 1-hand catches. T.Y. does not haul in impossible back-shoulder fades in the corners of the end zone. T.Y. does not go up for a contested ball against a CB and come down having won that battle. That is not T.Y. Hilton. What T.Y. does is different. He scoops underthrown balls an inch from the turf on sliding dives in front of a safety. He blazes past linebackers, who by all rights should have coverage, and gets open just screaming down center field. He uses... shit, basically spidey sense... to know the exact moment a ball - which he never turns around to see - is 6 inches from his elbow and catches it with the most efficient physical movement possible as he's being actively edged out of bounds by a corner. That is T.Y. Hilton.

Maybe the biggest difference between T.Y. and Marvin is their attitudes, which come out in their play styles. Marvin was quiet and reserved. He was driven by a personal need to be great, but otherwise he seemed to prefer to avoid notice. I think Marvin was happiest when people just left him alone. Hilton on the other hand, while also quiet, is not reserved. Hilton is pissed. Like, all of the time. Hilton has probably been the smallest dude on every team he's ever played for going back to high school, and you can tell he absolutely relishes the opportunity to make bigger, stronger, more prototypical NFL-type athletes look like complete idiots. He does this often and he does this well.

About the only comparisons you can make between Hilton and Harrison are 1.) they are/were both exquisite route-runners, and 2.) they are/were the best receivers on Colts active roster since the day they were drafted.

We needed a big game from Hilton today to get the offense rolling, and he delivered. We all know he's playing hurt and has been for weeks, but he's just gutting it out. It's not uncommon for the smallest guy to also be the toughest guy, and Hilton is a textbook example.

The defensive gameplan was solid in theory, albeit not particularly successful until late into the 3rd quarter. It's clear what Eberflus intended to do: stack the box, swarm Saquon Barkley on running downs and blitz Eli to pieces. Knowing that the Giants were short Odell Beckham as a target would definitely lead you to believe that this was a sound strategy, especially given how up-and-down Eli has been this season. However, there are two Eli Mannings, and we faced the good one today.

We blitzed more times today than I think we did at any point this season, and it was not working. The pocket compressed on almost every Giants passing down, but Eli was getting the ball out so quickly that any pass rush was completely negated. I said during the game that they should shift to only rushing 4 and pressing more in coverage, but Eberflus clearly had other ideas. If not for winning the field position battle in the 4th, which forced the Giants to go conservative while backed up in their own end zone, I don't think we stop them from beating us on a field goal.

It's impressive that Barkley was held to 43 yards and the giants had a mere 2.9 yards per rush average. This defense has become almost bizarrely effective against the run, shutting down premier backs multiple weeks in a row, but it came at a cost today. Shepard was just killing us. The Giants converted 7 of 12 3rd downs almost entirely on passes where Eli needed very little time to throw. That's not OK. That is a defense that is being exploited. Again, Good Eli Manning can be elite, and an elite QB is going to find weaknesses in an inexperienced secondary, but when you're blitzing every other down and finish the game with zero sacks, you've had a rough day.

Leonard had a decent game. He did not get close to his Babe Ruth-esque point over the wall of 40 tackles (he had 9), but he made a number of key stops and came inches away from a forced fumble recovery and touchdown against a guy who hasn't lost the ball all year. Mostly I think he was just coached out of position to be as effective in this game as he usually is.

Oh, and hey, Malik Hooker did a thing!

I will say that I appreciated the lighter touch the officiating gave this game. After the flag-fest last week, which is incredibly annoying, it was refreshing to watch the crew today mostly let the players play. I'm not optimistic enough to think this represents a change in trend with how officiating is going in the NFL these days, but it did help my enjoyment of this game.

We also need to give credit once again to Vinatieri, Sanchez, and the rest of Ventrone's ST unit for an extremely solid game all around. Coverages on kicks were great, allowed very little on returns, and fielded some great punts by Sanchez multiple times to pin the Giants deep and give our defense enough field to overcome being overwhelmed by the Giants seemingly-unstoppable short-yardage passing game. Colts special teams are so well-coached. I'd have to comb through the game again to say for certain, but it looked like a completely error-free performance from them today, and it was absolutely integral to finishing our home season with a win.

The thing that concerns me going forward are the injuries we sustained today. Watching Kelly, Ebron, and Walker all head to the locker room makes me worry about taking on Tennessee (who are hot again and probably still pissed about the way we bitchmade them a few weeks ago) on Sunday night. Boehm has proven himself to be reliable in pass protection, but you don't turn December games into January games (or win any of those) without a rushing attack, and our run blocking hinges on Kelly to a huge degree. We are getting really thin at TE without Ebron, and Walker is probably the best player on our secondary. I don't know the status of any of these guys yet, but my fingers are crossed.

Ultimately this was a must-win game that we did win. That's what good teams do. But it's not sending me into the final game of the season with the kind of bolstered confidence I would have liked after today.

[rcubed]

I thinking the comparison to marv was ty’s ability to avoid the big hit

[southside asshole]

Originally Posted by rcubed

I thinking the comparison to marv was ty’s ability to avoid the big hit

It may have been. I remember the play where he was basically surrounded by DBs and just slid down after securing the ball and the 1st. But it's not the first time some announcer has made that comparison, so I kind of went off on it.

[VeveJones007]

A lot of good stuff in there. Pretty sure you meant “Moore” and not “Walker” at the end. Though they obviously did miss Walker a lot today in the middle zone.

[dwilli57]

The only thing that bugs me about TY is his YAC. Sometimes it just looks like he's "pussy"-ing and hitting the dirt before he needs to.

[Pez]

Originally Posted by dwilli57

The only thing that bugs me about TY is his YAC. Sometimes it just looks like he's "pussy"-ing and hitting the dirt before he needs to.

I'm unsure about that. He's a small dude, and the best wr we have. I'd rather he not take those hits.

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[Luck4Reich]

Originally Posted by dwilli57

The only thing that bugs me about TY is his YAC. Sometimes it just looks like he's "pussy"-ing and hitting the dirt before he needs to.

I dont think so at all.. the dude has played through lots of injuries. I'm ok with him taking what is there and not getting injured. I mean if he picks up a 11 yard catch and goes down. That's ok because then he goes for 50 later in the game. He is always a threat. I'm ok he doesn't always try to pick up a few more yards. I think that's where he is smart like Marvin.

[DrSpaceman]

I was thinking about TY and Marvin as well and agree they are very different players.

TY is more of a home run threat and big play threat when needed, though Marvin certainly had his share of long passes and ability to stretch the field.

TY has never had a 100 catch season even in this era of more passing than we saw in Marvin's career. But if you need a big play to energize the crowd and spark the team, he is always there for it.

It amazes me that Marvin's 144 catch season still stands as a record 17 years later. You'd think someone by now would have beat up and one day someone will, but no one has been able to sustain that for a whole season yet. And really at the time Peyton went to him that year almost to a fault because the Colts really had no one else at the time, pre-Wayne, but its still an amazing record.

Has been mentioned, Mack today had some GREAT blocks. Really saved Luck a few times from bone crushing hits. One play though I notice he was slow to hit a big whole, could have gone for a big gain if he doesn't hesitate and instead went for a modest gain.

Hines out of the backfield may be the best #2 WR option on the team right now. Not sure if that is good or bad.

I think the biggest thing with the D today as mentioned was the blitzing with lack of results. You will continue to see that with veteran QBs. They cannot generate a pass rush without bringing extra players and that leaves the secondary vulnerable, a veteran QB like Eli will easily pick that apart. Luckily, maybe, however, if the Colts make the playoffs, there may be only a few of those QBs in the AFC. Will be facing :
Mahomes
Watson
Rivers
Brady
Jackson

Most likely. This assumes Pitt does not make it and Houston wins the SOuth

Jackson, Mahomes and Watson are all first/second year players. As good as Mahomes has been, still a second year player with no playoff experience.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by dwilli57

The only thing that bugs me about TY is his YAC. Sometimes it just looks like he's "pussy"-ing and hitting the dirt before he needs to.

Early in Marvins careeer, he got a busted colar bone going over the middle. After that, he seldom took big hits when he didn't need to.

TY is the only reliable pass threat, let alone deep threat. Sometime it's ok to slide.

[GoBigBlue88]

Originally Posted by dwilli57

The only thing that bugs me about TY is his YAC. Sometimes it just looks like he's "pussy"-ing and hitting the dirt before he needs to.

Hilton is #3 in YAC over last 5 weeks...

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1076202401596624902